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In this paper we use microdata from the International Adult Literacy Survey to show that the effect of skill dispersion on trade flows is quantitatively similar to that of the aggregate endowment of human capital. In particular we investigate, and find support for, the hypothesis that countries with a more dispersed skill distribution specialize in industries characterized by lower complementarity of workers' skills. The result is robust to the introduction of controls for alternative sources of comparative advantage, as well as to alternative measures of industry-level skill complementarity. 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We study this issue by examining the recent, large-scale security transition from international troops to local forces in the ongoing civil conflict in Afghanistan. We construct a new dataset that combines information on this transition process with declassified conflict outcomes and previously unreleased quarterly survey data of residents\u2019 perceptions of local security. Our empirical design leverages the staggered roll-out of the transition, and employs a novel instrumental variables approach to estimate the impact. We find a significant, sharp, and timely decline of insurgent violence in the initial phase: the security transfer to Afghan forces. We find that this is followed by a significant surge in violence in the second phase: the actual physical withdrawal of foreign troops. We argue that this pattern is consistent with a signaling model, in which the insurgents reduce violence strategically to facilitate the foreign military withdrawal to capitalize on the reduced foreign military presence afterward. Our findings clarify the destabilizing consequences of withdrawal in one of the costliest conflicts in modern history, and yield potentially actionable insights for designing future security transitions. (JEL D74, F51, F52, O17) <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20200412","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,30]],"date-time":"2021-06-30T11:52:28Z","timestamp":1625053948000},"page":"2275-2308","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":34,"title":["Security Transitions"],"prefix":"10.1257","volume":"111","author":[{"given":"Thiemo","family":"Fetzer","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics, University of Warwick (email: )"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Pedro C. 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(JEL D82, H75, I26, I28, J24, J31) <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20200146","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,28]],"date-time":"2022-04-28T12:45:53Z","timestamp":1651149953000},"page":"1669-1702","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":32,"title":["Signaling and Employer Learning with Instruments"],"prefix":"10.1257","volume":"112","author":[{"given":"Gaurab","family":"Aryal","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics, University of Virginia (email: )"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Manudeep","family":"Bhuller","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics, University of Oslo and Statistics Norway (email: )"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fabian","family":"Lange","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics, McGill University and NBER (email: )"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"11","reference":[{"key":"p_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.euroecorev.2009.09.001"},{"key":"p_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/654403"},{"key":"p_3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/003355301556329"},{"key":"p_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Angrist, Joshua D., and Alan B. 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Lochner, and Petra E. Todd. 2006. \"Earnings Functions, Rates of Return and Treatment Effects: The Mincer Equation and Beyond.\" In Handbook of the Economics of Education, Vol. 1, edited by Eric Hanushek and Finis Welch, 307-458. 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Amsterdam: Elsevier.","DOI":"10.1016\/S1574-0692(06)01008-7"},{"key":"p_40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/0008-4085.00077"},{"key":"p_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lochner, Lance J. 2011. \"Nonproduction Bene ts of Education: Crime, Health, and Good Citizenship.\" In Handbook of the Economics of Education, Vol. 4, edited by Eric A. Hanushek, Stephen Machin, and Ludger Woessmann, 183-282. Amsterdam, Elsevier.","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-444-53444-6.00002-X"},{"key":"p_42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1542-4774.2011.01048.x"},{"key":"p_43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0019793920922499"},{"key":"p_44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/0002828053828671"},{"key":"p_45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9442.2008.00563.x"},{"key":"p_46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2003.10.015"},{"key":"p_47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/000282806776157641"},{"key":"p_48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.25.1.159"},{"key":"p_49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-937X.2008.00507.x"},{"key":"p_50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9914.00215"},{"key":"p_51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/522905"},{"key":"p_52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1882010"},{"key":"p_53","unstructured":"Statistisk sentralbyr\u00e5. 1987. \"Folke- og boligtellingene 1960, 1970 og 1980. Dokumentasjon av de sammenliknbare lene.\" Rapporter 87\/2."},{"key":"p_54","unstructured":"Statistisk sentralbyr\u00e5. 2001a. \"Dokumentasjon av inntektsstatistikk for personer og familier 1993-1998.\" Notater 2001\/61."},{"key":"p_55","unstructured":"Statistisk sentralbyr\u00e5. 2001b. \"Utdanningsstatistikk. Dokumentasjon 2000 av den individbaserte utdanningsstatistikken.\" Norges of sielle statistikk, C 645."},{"key":"p_56","unstructured":"Statistisk sentralbyr\u00e5. 2000. \"Dokumentasjon av BESYS - befolkningsstatistikksystemet.\" Notater 2000\/24."},{"key":"p_57","unstructured":"Statistisk sentralbyr\u00e5. 2021. \"06913: Endringer i kommuner, fylker og hele landets befolkning (K) 1960.\" https:\/\/www.ssb.no\/en\/statbank\/table\/06913\/ (accessed January 10, 2021)."},{"issue":"3","key":"p_58","first-page":"283","volume":"65","author":"Stiglitz Joseph E","year":"1975","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"p_59","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0160-2896(04)00052-2"},{"key":"p_60","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-937X.00185"},{"key":"p_61","unstructured":"Thrane, Vidkunn C. 1977. \"Evnepr\u00f8ving av utskrivingspliktige i Norge 1950-53.\" Arbeidsrapport nr. 26, INAS."},{"key":"p_62","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/003355300554818"},{"issue":"5","key":"p_63","first-page":"949","volume":"67","author":"Wolpin Kenneth I","year":"1977","journal-title":"American Economic Review"}],"container-title":["American Economic 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First, American consumers devote little attention to fuel costs when purchasing autos. Second, consistent with a cognitive bias called \u201cMPG Illusion,\u201d consumers underestimate the fuel cost differences between low-MPG vehicles and overestimate the differences between high-MPG vehicles. Third, Americans' mean and median expected future gas prices were above current prices and predictions of the futures market at the time of the survey. Although it is often argued that misperceived energy costs justify policies to encourage the sale of energy efficient durable goods, these results show that misperceptions and expectations that differ from market information could either increase or decrease energy efficiency. <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.101.3.98","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,6,1]],"date-time":"2011-06-01T15:20:52Z","timestamp":1306941652000},"page":"98-104","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":192,"title":["Consumers' Perceptions and Misperceptions of Energy Costs"],"prefix":"10.1257","volume":"101","author":[{"given":"Hunt","family":"Allcott","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics, MIT, 50 Memorial Drive, Cambridge, MA 02142, and New York University."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"11","reference":[{"key":"p_4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1001509107"},{"key":"p_5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/pol.3.1.91"},{"key":"p_6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.96.3.694"},{"key":"p_7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/qjec.2006.121.2.505"},{"key":"p_9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/qjec.2010.125.2.515"},{"key":"p_12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-0262.2004.00537.x"},{"key":"p_15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jel.45.2.373"},{"key":"p_16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2006.03.005"}],"container-title":["American Economic Review"],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/pubs.aeaweb.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1257\/aer.101.3.98","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,2]],"date-time":"2020-06-02T20:15:49Z","timestamp":1591128949000},"score":0.0,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/pubs.aeaweb.org\/doi\/10.1257\/aer.101.3.98"}},"issued":{"date-parts":[[2011,5,1]]},"references-count":8,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2011,5,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1257\/aer.101.3.98"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1257\/aer.101.3.98","ISSN":["0002-8282"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0002-8282","type":"print"}],"published":{"date-parts":[[2011,5,1]]}},{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,13]],"date-time":"2026-02-13T11:34:03Z","timestamp":1770982443643,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":5,"publisher":"American Economic Association","issue":"3","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["American Economic Review"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2011,5,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p> Merger simulations are commonly used to simulate the effects of potential mergers. Despite the large resources devoted to merger review, little evidence exists on the accuracy of these methods. This paper uses the acquisition of Tambrands by Proctor and Gamble to provide evidence on the efficacy of merger simulation. Two simple demand systems are estimated under several identification assumptions and combined with a static model of price competition. Simulations predict small price effects of about 1 percent for the merging firms' brands, while direct estimates indicate the merger raised prices by 5\u20138 percent. <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.101.3.51","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,6,1]],"date-time":"2011-06-01T15:20:52Z","timestamp":1306941652000},"page":"51-55","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":33,"title":["More Evidence on the Performance of Merger Simulations"],"prefix":"10.1257","volume":"101","author":[{"given":"Matthew C","family":"Weinberg","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Bryn Mawr College, Dalton Hall, 101 N. 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We argue that the widespread adoption of IT by the debt collection industry in the 1990s contributed to the observed expansion of unsecured risky lending such as credit cards. Our model stresses the importance of delinquency and private information about borrower solvency. The prevalence of delinquency implies that the costs of debt collection must be borne by lenders to sustain incentives to repay debt. IT mitigates informational asymmetries, allowing lenders to concentrate collection efforts on delinquent borrowers who are more likely to repay. 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Gaps between a true expectational Phillips curve and the monetary authority's approximating nonexpectational Phillips curve models unleash inflation that a monetary authority that knows the true model would avoid. A sequence of dynamic programming problems implies that the monetary authority's inflation target evolves as its estimated Phillips curve moves. Our estimates attribute the rise and fall of post-WWII inflation in the United States to an intricate interaction between the monetary authority's beliefs and economic shocks. Shocks in the 1970s made the monetary authority perceive a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment which ignited big inflation. 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It develops a quantitative urban model with multiple worker groups and transit modes, and derives a special case yielding sufficient statistics for aggregate welfare in a broad class of models. The paper estimates reduced-form elasticities to implement the approach using data spanning construction of the world\u2019s largest Bus Rapid Transit system in Bogot\u00e1, Colombia. This class of models explains observed adjustments in economic activity. Standard value-of-time calculations capture only 52 percent of welfare gains. Accounting for reallocation and general equilibrium effects, distributional impacts are modest. 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People may become more inclined to express views or take actions previously perceived as stigmatized and may judge others less negatively for doing so. We examine this possibility using two experiments. We first show via revealed preference experiments that Donald Trump\u2019s rise in popularity and eventual victory increased individuals\u2019 willingness to publicly express xenophobic views. We then show that individuals are sanctioned less negatively if they publicly expressed a xenophobic view in an environment where that view is more popular. 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Evidence for its existence is, however, scarce because of the host of factors that simultaneously change during financial cycles. We circumvent these problems by priming financial professionals with either a boom or a bust scenario. Subjects primed with a financial bust were substantially more fearful and risk averse than those primed with a boom, suggesting that fear may play an important role in countercyclical risk aversion. The mechanism described here is relevant for theory and may explain self-reinforcing processes that amplify market dynamics. 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