{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,26]],"date-time":"2026-02-26T19:31:17Z","timestamp":1772134277085,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":66,"publisher":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,9]],"date-time":"2021-03-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1615248000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003977","name":"Israel Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["1069\/18"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1069\/18"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003977","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100006785","name":"Google","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["gift grant"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["gift grant"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100006785","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Geophysical Research Letters"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,16]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Projections of extreme precipitation based on modern climate models suffer from large uncertainties. Specifically, unresolved physics and natural variability limit the ability of climate models to provide actionable information on impacts and risks at the regional, watershed and city scales relevant for practical applications. Here, we show that the interaction of precipitating systems with local features can constrain the statistical description of extreme precipitation. These observational constraints can be used to project local extremes of low yearly exceedance probability (e.g., 100\u2010year events) using synoptic\u2010scale information from climate models, which is generally represented more accurately than the local scales, and without requiring climate models to explicitly resolve extremes. The novel approach, demonstrated here over the south\u2010eastern Mediterranean, offers a path for improving the predictability of local statistics of extremes in a changing climate, independent of pending improvements in climate models at regional and local scales.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1029\/2020gl091823","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,3]],"date-time":"2021-02-03T15:35:27Z","timestamp":1612366527000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":23,"title":["Toward Narrowing Uncertainty in Future Projections of Local Extreme Precipitation"],"prefix":"10.1029","volume":"48","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0573-9202","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Francesco","family":"Marra","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Jerusalem Israel"},{"name":"Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate National Research Council of Italy CNR\u2010ISAC Bologna Italy"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3388-1003","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Moshe","family":"Armon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Jerusalem Israel"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0334-0636","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ori","family":"Adam","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Jerusalem Israel"}]},{"given":"Davide","family":"Zoccatelli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Jerusalem Israel"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1528-4697","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Osama","family":"Gazal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Szent Istvan University Godollo Karoly Hungary"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7258-666X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chaim I.","family":"Garfinkel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Jerusalem Israel"}]},{"given":"Dorita","family":"Rostkier\u2010Edelstein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Jerusalem Israel"},{"name":"Department of Environmental Physics Environmental Sciences Division, IIBR Ness\u2010Ziona Israel"}]},{"given":"Uri","family":"Dayan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Jerusalem Israel"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8367-9255","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yehouda","family":"Enzel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Jerusalem Israel"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6671-7926","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Efrat","family":"Morin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Jerusalem Israel"}]}],"member":"13","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2001GL013554"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.1036"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JHM-D-18-0013.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/02626667.2019.1620507"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/02626669109492519"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_8_1_7_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"A dendrite method for cluster analysis","volume":"3","author":"Calinski T.","year":"1974","journal-title":"Communications in Statistics"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-19-421-2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2015GL063238"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2019GL085751"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2014GL061859"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2020GL090903","DOI":"10.1029\/2020GL090903","article-title":"Changing spatial structure of summer heavy rainfall, using convection\u2010permitting ensemble","volume":"48","author":"Chen Y.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Geophysical Research Letters"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_13_1","volume-title":"Applied hydrology","author":"Chow V. T.","year":"1988"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4471-3675-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/02626667009493987"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2015EF000336"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2051"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate3110"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020GL088151"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2006GL025734"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2019GL085378","DOI":"10.1029\/2019GL085378","article-title":"Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections","volume":"47","author":"Hausfather Z.","year":"2019","journal-title":"Geophysical Research Letters"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.5260"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.5714"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_24_1","unstructured":"IPCC. (2014). InCore Writing Team R. K.Pachauri&L. A.Meyer(Eds.) Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Geneva Switzerland:IPCC."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41612-020-00149-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/acp-18-5253-2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2258"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ngeo779"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.advwatres.2015.03.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2019JD030855"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2020GL091498","DOI":"10.1029\/2020GL091498","article-title":"Orographic effect on extreme precipitation statistics peaks at hourly time scales","author":"Marra F.","year":"2021","journal-title":"Geophysical Research Letters"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020GL090209"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2019.04.081"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.advwatres.2018.05.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.advwatres.2019.04.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020GL087238"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-019-52277-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_38_1","volume-title":"U.S. billion\u2010dollar weather and climate disasters","author":"NOAA","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0907610106"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2007.09.044"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1906691116"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2018WR022732"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2018WR024067"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-018-04253-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JHM-D-17-0158.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-19-567-2015"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aat1871"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2018GL080298"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate3287"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/75.2.335"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-020-05240-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-011-0149-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-21-917-2021"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2009.07.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.advwatres.2014.12.013"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ngeo2253"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_57_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/esp.4836"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.wace.2015.06.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2020.125932"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/aad135"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2016GL068509"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI3987.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2893"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_64_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-014-2426-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_65_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2016GL069445"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.1036"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1990.tb01775.x"}],"container-title":["Geophysical Research Letters"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1029\/2020GL091823","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1029\/2020GL091823","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1029\/2020GL091823","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,20]],"date-time":"2023-10-20T02:17:21Z","timestamp":1697768241000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2020GL091823"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,9]]},"references-count":66,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,16]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1029\/2020GL091823"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2020gl091823","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1002\/essoar.10505126.1","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["0094-8276","1944-8007"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0094-8276","type":"print"},{"value":"1944-8007","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,9]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2020-11-30","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-01-23","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-03-09","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e2020GL091823"}}