{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,21]],"date-time":"2026-10-21T10:27:00Z","timestamp":1792578420226,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"American Medical Association (AMA)","issue":"21","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JAMA"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,12,3]]},"DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2019.17379","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,11,8]],"date-time":"2019-11-08T14:00:44Z","timestamp":1573221644000},"page":"2104","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":231,"title":["Development of Risk Prediction Equations for Incident Chronic Kidney Disease"],"prefix":"10.1001","volume":"322","author":[{"given":"Robert G.","family":"Nelson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Chronic Kidney Disease Section, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Phoenix, Arizona"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Morgan E.","family":"Grams","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shoshana H.","family":"Ballew","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yingying","family":"Sang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland"},{"name":"OptumLabs, Cambridge, Massachusetts"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fereidoun","family":"Azizi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Endocrine Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Steven J.","family":"Chadban","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Charles Perkins Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Layal","family":"Chaker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Academic Center for Thyroid Diseases, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands"},{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands"},{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephan C.","family":"Dunning","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"OptumLabs, Cambridge, Massachusetts"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Caroline","family":"Fox","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Population Sciences Branch, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland"},{"name":"The Framingham Heart Study, Framingham, Massachusetts"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yoshihisa","family":"Hirakawa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health and Health Systems, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kunitoshi","family":"Iseki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nakamura Clinic & Okinawa Asia Clinical Investigation Synergy, Okinawa, Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Joachim","family":"Ix","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of California, San Diego, La Jolla"},{"name":"Veterans Affairs San Diego Healthcare System, San Diego"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tazeen H.","family":"Jafar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Program in Health Services and Systems Research, Duke-National University of Singapore Medical School, Singapore"},{"name":"Department of Medicine, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan"},{"name":"Duke Global Health Institute, Durham, Duke University, North Carolina"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anna","family":"K\u00f6ttgen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland"},{"name":"Institute of Genetic Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine and Medical Center-University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David M. J.","family":"Naimark","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Sunnybrook Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Takayoshi","family":"Ohkubo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Hygiene and Public Health, Teikyo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gordon J.","family":"Prescott","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Medical Statistics Team, School of Medicine, Medical Sciences & Nutrition, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Casey M.","family":"Rebholz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Charumathi","family":"Sabanayagam","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Singapore National Eye Centre, Singapore Eye Research Institute, Singapore, Singapore"},{"name":"Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore"},{"name":"Duke-National University of Singapore Medical School, Singapore, Singapore"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Toshimi","family":"Sairenchi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, Dokkyo Medical University, Tochigi, Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ben","family":"Sch\u00f6ttker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany"},{"name":"Network Aging Research, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yugo","family":"Shibagaki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Internal Medicine, St Marianna University School of Medicine, Kawasaki, Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marcello","family":"Tonelli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Luxia","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Peking University Institute of Nephrology, Division of Nephrology, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ron T.","family":"Gansevoort","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Nephrology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kunihiro","family":"Matsushita","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mark","family":"Woodward","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland"},{"name":"The George Institute for Global Health, University of Oxford, United Kingdom"},{"name":"The George Institute for Global Health, University of New South Wales, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Josef","family":"Coresh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Varda","family":"Shalev","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Medical Division, Maccabi Healthcare Services, and Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"name":"for the CKD Prognosis Consortium","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"10","reference":[{"issue":"10159","key":"joi190121r1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1789","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(18)32279-7","article-title":"Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.","volume":"392","author":"GBD 2017 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators","year":"2018","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"10159","key":"joi190121r2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1736","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(18)32203-7","article-title":"Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.","volume":"392","author":"GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators","year":"2018","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"2","key":"joi190121r3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"245","DOI":"10.1053\/j.ajkd.2013.03.009","article-title":"Lifetime incidence of CKD stages 3-5 in the United States.","volume":"62","author":"Grams","year":"2013","journal-title":"Am J Kidney Dis"},{"issue":"2","key":"joi190121r4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"164","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2015.18202","article-title":"Multinational assessment of accuracy of equations for predicting risk of kidney failure: a meta-analysis.","volume":"315","author":"Tangri","year":"2016","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"4","key":"joi190121r5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"591","DOI":"10.1053\/j.ajkd.2015.02.337","article-title":"A meta-analysis of the association of estimated GFR, albuminuria, age, race, and sex with acute kidney injury.","volume":"66","author":"Grams","year":"2015","journal-title":"Am J Kidney Dis"},{"issue":"5","key":"joi190121r6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"411","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1510491","article-title":"Kidney-failure risk projection for the living kidney-donor candidate.","volume":"374","author":"Grams","year":"2016","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"issue":"24","key":"joi190121r7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2518","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2014.6634","article-title":"Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality.","volume":"311","author":"Coresh","year":"2014","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"8","key":"joi190121r8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2447","DOI":"10.1681\/ASN.2015060687","article-title":"Past decline versus current eGFR and subsequent ESRD risk.","volume":"27","author":"Kovesdy","year":"2016","journal-title":"J Am Soc Nephrol"},{"issue":"6","key":"joi190121r9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1660","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dys173","article-title":"Cohort profile: the chronic kidney disease prognosis consortium.","volume":"42","author":"Matsushita","year":"2013","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol"},{"issue":"9","key":"joi190121r10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"604","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-150-9-200905050-00006","article-title":"A new equation to estimate glomerular filtration rate.","volume":"150","author":"Levey","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"issue":"4","key":"joi190121r11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"766","DOI":"10.1373\/clinchem.2006.077180","article-title":"Expressing the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation for estimating glomerular filtration rate with standardized serum creatinine values.","volume":"53","author":"Levey","year":"2007","journal-title":"Clin Chem"},{"issue":"9","key":"joi190121r12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1876","DOI":"10.1253\/circj.CJ-19-0320","article-title":"Novel \u201cpredictor patch\u201d method for adding predictors using estimates from outside datasets\u2014a proof-of-concept study adding kidney measures to cardiovascular mortality prediction.","volume":"83","author":"Matsushita","year":"2019","journal-title":"Circ J"},{"issue":"14","key":"joi190121r13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1377","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2017.12126","article-title":"Discrimination and calibration of clinical prediction models: Users\u2019 Guides to the Medical Literature.","volume":"318","author":"Alba","year":"2017","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"joi190121r15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"104","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-016-0650-2","article-title":"An external validation of models to predict the onset of chronic kidney disease using population-based electronic health records from Salford, UK.","volume":"14","author":"Fraccaro","year":"2016","journal-title":"BMC Med"},{"issue":"9","key":"joi190121r16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"836.e2","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amjmed.2010.05.010","article-title":"A prediction model for the risk of incident chronic kidney disease.","volume":"123","author":"Chien","year":"2010","journal-title":"Am J Med"},{"issue":"3","key":"joi190121r17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"270","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amjmed.2011.09.009","article-title":"A risk score for chronic kidney disease in the general population.","volume":"125","author":"O\u2019Seaghdha","year":"2012","journal-title":"Am J Med"},{"issue":"1","key":"joi190121r18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability.","volume":"78","author":"Brier","year":"1950","journal-title":"Mon Weather Rev"},{"issue":"4","key":"joi190121r19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"374","DOI":"10.1001\/archinte.167.4.374","article-title":"Screening for Occult Renal Disease (SCORED): a simple prediction model for chronic kidney disease.","volume":"167","author":"Bang","year":"2007","journal-title":"Arch Intern Med"},{"issue":"22","key":"joi190121r20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2466","DOI":"10.1001\/archinte.168.22.2466","article-title":"A simple algorithm to predict incident kidney disease.","volume":"168","author":"Kshirsagar","year":"2008","journal-title":"Arch Intern Med"},{"issue":"1","key":"joi190121r21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.1038\/s41591-018-0239-8","article-title":"Predicting the early risk of chronic kidney disease in patients with diabetes using real-world data.","volume":"25","author":"Ravizza","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat Med"},{"issue":"15","key":"joi190121r22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1553","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2011.451","article-title":"A predictive model for progression of chronic kidney disease to kidney failure.","volume":"305","author":"Tangri","year":"2011","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"11","key":"joi190121r23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001344","article-title":"Risk models to predict chronic kidney disease and its progression: a systematic review.","volume":"9","author":"Echouffo-Tcheugui","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"issue":"3","key":"joi190121r24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"268","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2012.06.020","article-title":"A systematic review finds prediction models for chronic kidney disease were poorly reported and often developed using inappropriate methods.","volume":"66","author":"Collins","year":"2013","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"issue":"12","key":"joi190121r26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2143","DOI":"10.1681\/ASN.2010010085","article-title":"A multi-marker approach to predict incident CKD and microalbuminuria.","volume":"21","author":"Fox","year":"2010","journal-title":"J Am Soc Nephrol"},{"key":"joi190121r14","unstructured":"OptumLabs [website]. OptumLabs and OptumLabs Data Warehouse (OLDW) descriptions and citation. https:\/\/www.manta.com\/c\/mb4ykhk\/optum-labs-inc. May 2019. Accessed October 23, 2019."},{"key":"joi190121r25","unstructured":"Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) CKD Work Group. KDIGO 2012 Clinical Practice Guideline for the Evaluation and Management of Chronic Kidney Disease.https:\/\/kdigo.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/KDIGO_2012_CKD_GL.pdf. Published January 2013. Accessed October 29, 2019."}],"container-title":["JAMA"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/articlepdf\/2755299\/jama_nelson_2019_oi_190121.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,12,3]],"date-time":"2019-12-03T11:11:56Z","timestamp":1575371516000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/fullarticle\/2755299"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,12,3]]},"references-count":26,"journal-issue":{"issue":"21","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,12,3]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1001\/jama.2019.17379","relation":{},"ISSN":["0098-7484"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0098-7484","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,12,3]]}}}