{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,3]],"date-time":"2026-10-03T03:52:01Z","timestamp":1790999521644,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":62,"publisher":"American Medical Association (AMA)","issue":"6","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JAMA Netw Open"],"DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2020.4669","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,4]],"date-time":"2020-06-04T23:49:13Z","timestamp":1591314553000},"page":"e204669","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":28,"title":["Development and Validation of the Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT) to Predict Incidence of Adult Chronic Disease"],"prefix":"10.1001","volume":"3","author":[{"given":"Ryan","family":"Ng","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Dalla Lana School of Public Health, Division of Epidemiology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rinku","family":"Sutradhar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ICES, Toronto, Ontario, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kathy","family":"Kornas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Dalla Lana School of Public Health, Division of Epidemiology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Walter P.","family":"Wodchis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ICES, Toronto, Ontario, Canada"},{"name":"Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada"},{"name":"Trillium Health Partners\u2019 Institute for Better Health, Mississauga, Ontario, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Joykrishna","family":"Sarkar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Randall","family":"Fransoo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Laura C.","family":"Rosella","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Dalla Lana School of Public Health, Division of Epidemiology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada"},{"name":"ICES, Toronto, Ontario, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"10","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,4]]},"reference":[{"issue":"10100","key":"zoi200221r1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1151","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(17)32152-9","article-title":"Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.","volume":"390","author":"Naghavi","year":"2017","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"10100","key":"zoi200221r2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1211","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(17)32154-2","article-title":"Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.","volume":"390","author":"GBD 2016 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators","year":"2017","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"14","key":"zoi200221r3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1775","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.288.14.1775","article-title":"Improving primary care for patients with chronic illness.","volume":"288","author":"Bodenheimer","year":"2002","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi200221r4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"75","DOI":"10.1377\/hlthaff.28.1.75","article-title":"Evidence on the Chronic Care Model in the new millennium.","volume":"28","author":"Coleman","year":"2009","journal-title":"Health Aff (Millwood)"},{"key":"zoi200221r5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"415","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-015-1733-2","article-title":"The increasing burden and complexity of multimorbidity.","volume":"15","author":"Pefoyo","year":"2015","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"issue":"9775","key":"zoi200221r7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1438","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(11)60393-0","article-title":"Priority actions for the non-communicable disease crisis.","volume":"377","author":"Beaglehole","year":"2011","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi200221r8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.3138\/cjpe.31160","article-title":"Evaluating the process and outcomes of a knowledge translation approach to supporting use of the Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT) in public health practice.","volume":"33","author":"Rosella","year":"2018","journal-title":"Can J Program Eval"},{"issue":"7","key":"zoi200221r9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"613","DOI":"10.1136\/jech.2009.102244","article-title":"A population-based risk algorithm for the development of diabetes: development and validation of the Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT).","volume":"65","author":"Rosella","year":"2011","journal-title":"J Epidemiol Community Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi200221r10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"46","DOI":"10.1016\/0002-9149(76)90061-8","article-title":"A general cardiovascular risk profile: the Framingham Study.","volume":"38","author":"Kannel","year":"1976","journal-title":"Am J Cardiol"},{"key":"zoi200221r11","article-title":"Prediction of long-term incidence of chronic cardiovascular and cardiopulmonary diseases in primary care patients for population health monitoring: the Intermountain Chronic Disease Model (ICHRON).","author":"May","year":"2018","journal-title":"Mayo Clin Proc"},{"issue":"12","key":"zoi200221r12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0143342","article-title":"Predicting stroke risk based on health behaviours: development of the Stroke Population Risk Tool (SPoRT).","volume":"10","author":"Manuel","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"29","key":"zoi200221r13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"E871","DOI":"10.1503\/cmaj.170914","article-title":"Development and validation of a cardiovascular disease risk-prediction model using population health surveys: the Cardiovascular Disease Population Risk Tool (CVDPoRT).","volume":"190","author":"Manuel","year":"2018","journal-title":"CMAJ"},{"issue":"10","key":"zoi200221r14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2017-018018","article-title":"Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT): study protocol for a predictive algorithm assessing dementia risk in the community.","volume":"7","author":"Fisher","year":"2017","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"issue":"5","key":"zoi200221r15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1571","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyy137","article-title":"Development and validation of alternative cardiovascular risk prediction equations for population health planning: a routine health data linkage study of 1.7 million New Zealanders.","volume":"47","author":"Mehta","year":"2018","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi200221r16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1186\/s41512-018-0042-5","article-title":"Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT): a study protocol for a prediction model that assesses population-based chronic disease incidence.","volume":"2","author":"Ng","year":"2018","journal-title":"Diagn Progn Res"},{"issue":"3","key":"zoi200221r17","first-page":"9","article-title":"Canadian Community Health Survey: methodological overview.","volume":"13","author":"B\u00e9land","year":"2002","journal-title":"Health Rep"},{"issue":"3","key":"zoi200221r20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"160","DOI":"10.24095\/hpcdp.33.3.06","article-title":"Identifying cases of congestive heart failure from administrative data: a validation study using primary care patient records.","volume":"33","author":"Schultz","year":"2013","journal-title":"Chronic Dis Inj Can"},{"issue":"5","key":"zoi200221r21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"388","DOI":"10.1080\/15412550903140865","article-title":"Identifying individuals with physician diagnosed COPD in health administrative databases.","volume":"6","author":"Gershon","year":"2009","journal-title":"COPD"},{"issue":"3","key":"zoi200221r22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"512","DOI":"10.2337\/diacare.25.3.512","article-title":"Diabetes in Ontario: determination of prevalence and incidence using a validated administrative data algorithm.","volume":"25","author":"Hux","year":"2002","journal-title":"Diabetes Care"},{"issue":"11","key":"zoi200221r23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1520","DOI":"10.1016\/0277-5379(91)90041-B","article-title":"Cancer incidence registration and trends in Ontario.","volume":"27","author":"McLaughlin","year":"1991","journal-title":"Eur J Cancer"},{"issue":"2","key":"zoi200221r24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"290","DOI":"10.1067\/mhj.2002.123839","article-title":"A multicenter study of the coding accuracy of hospital discharge administrative data for patients admitted to cardiac care units in Ontario.","volume":"144","author":"Austin","year":"2002","journal-title":"Am Heart J"},{"issue":"11","key":"zoi200221r25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1388","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cjca.2013.07.676","article-title":"Validity of administrative data for identifying patients who have had a stroke or transient ischemic attack using EMRALD as a reference standard.","volume":"29","author":"Tu","year":"2013","journal-title":"Can J Cardiol"},{"issue":"9937","key":"zoi200221r28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"45","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(14)60648-6","article-title":"Prevention of chronic disease in the 21st century: elimination of the leading preventable causes of premature death and disability in the USA.","volume":"384","author":"Bauer","year":"2014","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"10","key":"zoi200221r29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2014-006701","article-title":"Cardiovascular Disease Population Risk Tool (CVDPoRT): predictive algorithm for assessing CVD risk in the community setting: a study protocol.","volume":"4","author":"Taljaard","year":"2014","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"issue":"8","key":"zoi200221r30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1002082","article-title":"Measuring burden of unhealthy behaviours using a multivariable predictive approach: life expectancy lost in Canada attributable to smoking, alcohol, physical inactivity, and diet.","volume":"13","author":"Manuel","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"issue":"00","key":"zoi200221r31","first-page":"1","article-title":"Predicting high health care resource utilization in a single-payer public health care system: development and validation of the High Resource User Population Risk Tool (HRUPoRT).","volume":"00","author":"Rosella","year":"2017","journal-title":"Med Care"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi200221r32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0191169","article-title":"Development and validation of a population based risk algorithm for obesity: the Obesity Population Risk Tool (OPoRT).","volume":"13","author":"Lebenbaum","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi200221r33","first-page":"143","article-title":"Racial and ethnic differences in cardiovascular disease risk factors: a systematic review.","volume":"17","author":"Kurian","year":"2007","journal-title":"Ethn Dis"},{"issue":"19","key":"zoi200221r34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2138","DOI":"10.1001\/archinte.168.19.2138","article-title":"Differences in the incidence of congestive heart failure by ethnicity: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.","volume":"168","author":"Bahrami","year":"2008","journal-title":"Arch Intern Med"},{"issue":"6","key":"zoi200221r35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0218462","article-title":"Racial\/ethnic differences in multimorbidity development and chronic disease accumulation for middle-aged adults.","volume":"14","author":"Qui\u00f1ones","year":"2019","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"6","key":"zoi200221r36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1249","DOI":"10.2337\/dc11-0442","article-title":"Globalization of diabetes: the role of diet, lifestyle, and genes.","volume":"34","author":"Hu","year":"2011","journal-title":"Diabetes Care"},{"issue":"19","key":"zoi200221r37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2145","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.110.968792","article-title":"Sex\/gender differences in cardiovascular disease prevention: what a difference a decade makes.","volume":"124","author":"Mosca","year":"2011","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"issue":"9998","key":"zoi200221r38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1075","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(15)00156-7","article-title":"Risk factors for asthma: is prevention possible?","volume":"386","author":"Beasley","year":"2015","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"9971","key":"zoi200221r39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"899","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(14)60446-3","article-title":"Risk factors and early origins of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.","volume":"385","author":"Postma","year":"2015","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"10","key":"zoi200221r40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"640","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biopha.2007.10.006","article-title":"Lifestyle-related factors and environmental agents causing cancer: an overview.","volume":"61","author":"Irigaray","year":"2007","journal-title":"Biomed Pharmacother"},{"key":"zoi200221r41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"245","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2015.04.005","article-title":"Prediction models need appropriate internal, internal-external, and external validation.","volume":"69","author":"Steyerberg","year":"2016","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"issue":"8","key":"zoi200221r42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"774","DOI":"10.1016\/S0895-4356(01)00341-9","article-title":"Internal validation of predictive models: efficiency of some procedures for logistic regression analysis.","volume":"54","author":"Steyerberg","year":"2001","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"key":"zoi200221r43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2018.07.010","article-title":"Validation in prediction research: the waste by data splitting.","volume":"103","author":"Steyerberg","year":"2018","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"issue":"April","key":"zoi200221r47","article-title":"Smoking, drinking, diet and physical activity: modifiable lifestyle risk factors and their associations with age to first chronic disease.","author":"Ng","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol"},{"issue":"4","key":"zoi200221r49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"341","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMsa1211128","article-title":"21st-Century hazards of smoking and benefits of cessation in the United States.","volume":"368","author":"Jha","year":"2013","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi200221r50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"164","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chest.2016.03.060","article-title":"SmokeHaz: systematic reviews and meta-analyses of the effects of smoking on respiratory health.","volume":"150","author":"Jayes","year":"2016","journal-title":"Chest"},{"issue":"12","key":"zoi200221r51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"958","DOI":"10.1016\/S2213-8587(15)00316-2","article-title":"Relation of active, passive, and quitting smoking with incident type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.","volume":"3","author":"Pan","year":"2015","journal-title":"Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol"},{"issue":"3","key":"zoi200221r52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1053","DOI":"10.1177\/0962280214567141","article-title":"Predictive accuracy of novel risk factors and markers: a simulation study of the sensitivity of different performance measures for the Cox proportional hazards regression model.","volume":"26","author":"Austin","year":"2017","journal-title":"Stat Methods Med Res"},{"issue":"3","key":"zoi200221r53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"249","DOI":"10.1503\/cmaj.090846","article-title":"Epidemiology of diabetes mellitus among First Nations and non\u2013First Nations adults.","volume":"182","author":"Dyck","year":"2010","journal-title":"CMAJ"},{"issue":"4","key":"zoi200221r54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0123204","article-title":"Incidence and prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease among aboriginal peoples in Alberta, Canada.","volume":"10","author":"Ospina","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"9","key":"zoi200221r55","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1077","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cjca.2015.06.012","article-title":"Confronting the growing crisis of cardiovascular disease and heart health among aboriginal peoples in Canada.","volume":"31","author":"Reading","year":"2015","journal-title":"Can J Cardiol"},{"issue":"10","key":"zoi200221r56","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1105","DOI":"10.1007\/s10552-017-0950-7","article-title":"Cancer in First Nations people living in British Columbia, Canada: an analysis of incidence and survival from 1993 to 2010.","volume":"28","author":"McGahan","year":"2017","journal-title":"Cancer Causes Control"},{"issue":"3","key":"zoi200221r58","first-page":"41","article-title":"Diet quality in Canada.","volume":"20","author":"Garriguet","year":"2009","journal-title":"Health Rep"},{"issue":"7","key":"zoi200221r59","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"529","DOI":"10.1007\/s10654-015-0056-z","article-title":"Physical activity and the risk of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis.","volume":"30","author":"Aune","year":"2015","journal-title":"Eur J Epidemiol"},{"issue":"2","key":"zoi200221r60","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"391","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph9020391","article-title":"Physical activity and risk of cardiovascular disease: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.","volume":"9","author":"Li","year":"2012","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"issue":"4","key":"zoi200221r61","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"389","DOI":"10.1007\/s10552-004-5026-9","article-title":"Leisure-time physical activity and lung cancer: a meta-analysis.","volume":"16","author":"Tardon","year":"2005","journal-title":"Cancer Causes Control"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi200221r62","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-019-1340-7","article-title":"Performance of the Framingham risk models and pooled cohort equations for predicting 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.","volume":"17","author":"Damen","year":"2019","journal-title":"BMC Med"},{"key":"zoi200221r27","volume-title":"Tackling Chronic Disease in Europe: Strategies","author":"Busse","year":"2010"},{"key":"zoi200221r44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-19425-7","volume-title":"Regression Modeling Strategies","author":"Harrell","year":"2015"},{"key":"zoi200221r46","volume-title":"Proceedings of the Survey Research Methods Section","author":"Yeo","year":"1999"},{"key":"zoi200221r6","unstructured":"Waters? H, Graf? M. The costs of chronic disease in the US. Published August 28, 2018. Accessed April 24, 2020. https:\/\/milkeninstitute.org\/reports\/costs-chronic-disease-us"},{"key":"zoi200221r18","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Global status report on noncommunicable diseases, 2014. Accessed April 24, 2020. https:\/\/www.who.int\/nmh\/publications\/ncd-status-report-2014\/en\/"},{"key":"zoi200221r19","unstructured":"Global Burden of Disease. Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (GBD 2016): population estimates, 1950-2016. Accessed April 24, 2020. http:\/\/ghdx.healthdata.org\/record\/ihme-data\/gbd-2016-population-estimates-1950-2016"},{"key":"zoi200221r26","unstructured":"Public Health Agency of Canada. How healthy Are Canadians? Accessed April 24, 2020. https:\/\/www.canada.ca\/en\/public-health\/services\/publications\/healthy-living\/how-healthy-canadians.html"},{"key":"zoi200221r45","unstructured":"Kovacevic? MS, Mach? L, Roberts? G. Bootstrap variance estimation for predicted individual and population-average risks. Accessed April 24, 2020. https:\/\/pdfs.semanticscholar.org\/cbe8\/e6d3fb8b548d0dd925acd1eef3a974a28a83.pdf?_ga=2.250068805.2110187797.1587737357-2126011429.1585581526"},{"key":"zoi200221r48","unstructured":"US Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Smoking and health: report of the Advisory Committee to the Surgeon General of the Public Health Service. Accessed May 2, 2020. https:\/\/www.govinfo.gov\/content\/pkg\/GPO-SMOKINGANDHEALTH\/pdf\/GPO-SMOKINGANDHEALTH.pdf"},{"key":"zoi200221r57","unstructured":"Statistics Canada. Aboriginal identity population, by province and territory (2006 census). Published January 15, 2008. Accessed March 28, 2016. https:\/\/www.statcan.gc.ca\/tables-tableaux\/sum-som\/l01\/cst01\/demo60a-eng.htm"}],"container-title":["JAMA Network Open"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jamanetworkopen\/articlepdf\/2766780\/ng_2020_oi_200221.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,6]],"date-time":"2024-08-06T23:44:49Z","timestamp":1722987889000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jamanetworkopen\/fullarticle\/2766780"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,4]]},"references-count":62,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2020.4669","relation":{},"ISSN":["2574-3805"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2574-3805","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,4]]}}}