{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,31]],"date-time":"2026-08-31T18:27:29Z","timestamp":1788200849678,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"American Medical Association (AMA)","issue":"6","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JAMA Netw Open"],"DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2021.15321","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,30]],"date-time":"2021-06-30T18:38:14Z","timestamp":1625078294000},"page":"e2115321","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":18,"title":["Modeling Cervical Cancer Screening Strategies With Varying Levels of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination"],"prefix":"10.1001","volume":"4","author":[{"given":"David Robert","family":"Grimes","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Physical Sciences, Dublin City University, Glasnevin, Dublin, Ireland"},{"name":"Department of Oncology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Edward M. A.","family":"Corry","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gynaecological Oncology, Mater Misericordiae University Hospital, Dublin, Ireland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tal\u00eda","family":"Malag\u00f3n","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cancer Epidemiology, Department of Oncology, McGill University, Montreal, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ciaran","family":"O\u2019Riain","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Histopathology, St James\u2019s Hospital, Dublin, Ireland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eduardo L.","family":"Franco","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cancer Epidemiology, Department of Oncology, McGill University, Montreal, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Donal J.","family":"Brennan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gynaecological Oncology, Mater Misericordiae University Hospital, Dublin, Ireland"},{"name":"Systems Biology Ireland, University College Dublin School of Medicine, Belfield, Dublin, Ireland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"10","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,30]]},"reference":[{"issue":"9430","key":"zoi210460r1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"249","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(04)16674-9","article-title":"The cervical cancer epidemic that screening has prevented in the UK.","volume":"364","author":"Peto","year":"2004","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"8","key":"zoi210460r2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"359","DOI":"10.5694\/mja2.2016.205.issue-8","article-title":"Impact of the Australian National Cervical Screening Program in women of different ages.","volume":"205","author":"Smith","year":"2016","journal-title":"Med J Aust"},{"issue":"12","key":"zoi210460r3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1393","DOI":"10.1007\/s10552-017-0967-y","article-title":"Impact of the national cervical screening programme in New Zealand by age: analysis of cervical cancer trends 1985-2013 in all women and in Maori women.","volume":"28","author":"Smith","year":"2017","journal-title":"Cancer Causes Control"},{"issue":"6","key":"zoi210460r4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"478","DOI":"10.1016\/j.arcmed.2009.06.003","article-title":"The expected impact of HPV vaccination on the accuracy of cervical cancer screening: the need for a paradigm change.","volume":"40","author":"Franco","year":"2009","journal-title":"Arch Med Res"},{"issue":"9916","key":"zoi210460r5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"524","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(13)62218-7","article-title":"Efficacy of HPV-based screening for prevention of invasive cervical cancer: follow-up of four European randomised controlled trials.","volume":"383","author":"Ronco","year":"2014","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"7285","key":"zoi210460r6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"526","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.322.7285.526","article-title":"Women\u2019s understanding of a \u201cnormal smear test result\u201d: experimental questionnaire based study.","volume":"322","author":"Marteau","year":"2001","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi210460r7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"76","DOI":"10.1159\/000331537","article-title":"Medicolegal affairs: International Academy of Cytology Task Force summary: diagnostic cytology towards the 21st century: an international expert conference and tutorial.","volume":"42","author":"Frable","year":"1998","journal-title":"Acta Cytol"},{"issue":"39","key":"zoi210460r8","first-page":"16","article-title":"Errors in cervical smears: minimizing the risk of medicolegal consequences.","author":"Greening","year":"1997","journal-title":"Monogr Pathol"},{"key":"zoi210460r11","article-title":"Cytology versus HPV testing for cervical cancer screening in the general population.","volume":"8","author":"Koliopoulos","year":"2017","journal-title":"Cochrane Database Syst Rev"},{"issue":"5","key":"zoi210460r12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"582","DOI":"10.1038\/bjc.2015.474","article-title":"HPV immunisation and cervical screening\u2014confirmation of changed performance of cytology as a screening test in immunised women: a retrospective population-based cohort study.","volume":"114","author":"Palmer","year":"2016","journal-title":"Br J Cancer"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi210460r13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e19","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-2667(18)30183-X","article-title":"The projected timeframe until cervical cancer elimination in Australia: a modelling study.","volume":"4","author":"Hall","year":"2019","journal-title":"Lancet Public Health"},{"issue":"12","key":"zoi210460r14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2964","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.v144.12","article-title":"Is the positive predictive value of high-grade cytology in predicting high-grade cervical disease falling due to HPV vaccination?","volume":"144","author":"Sultana","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int J Cancer"},{"key":"zoi210460r15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S3","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2005.12.048","article-title":"Chapter 20: issues in planning cervical cancer screening in the era of HPV vaccination.","volume":"24","author":"Franco","year":"2006","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"key":"zoi210460r16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"63","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2006.05.113","article-title":"Chapter 7: 15 achievements and limitations of cervical cytology 16 screening.","volume":"24","author":"Kitchener","year":"2006","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"key":"zoi210460r19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"108","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ypmed.2018.12.021","article-title":"HPV-based cervical screening: rationale, expectations and future perspectives of the new Dutch screening programme.","volume":"119","author":"Polman","year":"2019","journal-title":"Prev Med"},{"issue":"7","key":"zoi210460r20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"674","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2018.8024","article-title":"Screening for cervical cancer: US Preventive Services Task Force recommendation statement.","volume":"320","author":"Curry","year":"2018","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"2","key":"zoi210460r21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"102","DOI":"10.1097\/LGT.0000000000000525","article-title":"2019 ASCCP risk-based management consensus guidelines for abnormal cervical cancer screening tests and cancer precursors.","volume":"24","author":"Perkins","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Low Genit Tract Dis"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi210460r22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e8","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-2667(16)30001-9","article-title":"Population-level impact, herd immunity, and elimination after human papillomavirus vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of predictions from transmission-dynamic models.","volume":"1","author":"Brisson","year":"2016","journal-title":"Lancet Public Health"},{"issue":"23","key":"zoi210460r23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3682","DOI":"10.1002\/cncr.v122.23","article-title":"The population impact of human papillomavirus\/cytology cervical cotesting at 3-year intervals: reduced cervical cancer risk and decreased yield of precancer per screen.","volume":"122","author":"Silver","year":"2016","journal-title":"Cancer"},{"issue":"8","key":"zoi210460r24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/dju153","article-title":"Reassurance against future risk of precancer and cancer conferred by a negative human papillomavirus test.","volume":"106","author":"Gage","year":"2014","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"2","key":"zoi210460r25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"189","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ygyno.2014.11.076","article-title":"Primary cervical cancer screening with human papillomavirus: end of study results from the ATHENA study using HPV as the first-line screening test.","volume":"136","author":"Wright","year":"2015","journal-title":"Gynecol Oncol"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi210460r26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2018.7464","article-title":"Effect of screening with primary cervical HPV testing vs cytology testing on high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia at 48 months: the HPV FOCAL randomized clinical trial.","volume":"320","author":"Ogilvie","year":"2018","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"7","key":"zoi210460r27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"663","DOI":"10.1016\/S1470-2045(11)70145-0","article-title":"Cervical cancer risk for women undergoing concurrent testing for human papillomavirus and cervical cytology: a population-based study in routine clinical practice.","volume":"12","author":"Katki","year":"2011","journal-title":"Lancet Oncol"},{"issue":"5","key":"zoi210460r28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"953","DOI":"10.1016\/j.suc.2015.05.009","article-title":"Principles of cancer screening.","volume":"95","author":"Pinsky","year":"2015","journal-title":"Surg Clin North Am"},{"key":"zoi210460r29","article-title":"Obstetric outcomes after conservative treatment for cervical intraepithelial lesions and early invasive disease.","volume":"11","author":"Kyrgiou","year":"2017","journal-title":"Cochrane Database Syst Rev"},{"issue":"3","key":"zoi210460r30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"100","DOI":"10.3109\/13814789809160359","article-title":"Overscreening for cervical cancer in Flanders (Belgium).","volume":"4","author":"Van Hal","year":"1998","journal-title":"Eur J Gen Pract"},{"issue":"6","key":"zoi210460r31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"569","DOI":"10.1111\/jmwh.2012.57.issue-6","article-title":"Cervical cancer screening in the era of human papillomavirus testing and vaccination.","volume":"57","author":"Murphy","year":"2012","journal-title":"J Midwifery Womens Health"},{"key":"zoi210460r32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ypmed.2016.11.029","article-title":"Introduction of molecular HPV testing as the primary technology in cervical cancer screening: acting on evidence to change the current paradigm.","volume":"98","author":"Tota","year":"2017","journal-title":"Prev Med"},{"issue":"2","key":"zoi210460r33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"92","DOI":"10.1177\/0969141316647091","article-title":"Excess cervical cancer screening smears: any benefit? a retrospective cohort in Alsace, France.","volume":"24","author":"Thiery","year":"2017","journal-title":"J Med Screen"},{"issue":"2","key":"zoi210460r34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"178","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ygyno.2014.12.022","article-title":"Use of primary high-risk human papillomavirus testing for cervical cancer screening: interim clinical guidance.","volume":"136","author":"Huh","year":"2015","journal-title":"Gynecol Oncol"},{"issue":"9916","key":"zoi210460r35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"493","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(13)62028-0","article-title":"Embracing a new era in cervical cancer screening.","volume":"383","author":"Isidean","year":"2014","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"zoi210460r36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"a1754","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.a1754","article-title":"Long term predictive values of cytology and human papillomavirus testing in cervical cancer screening: joint European cohort study.","volume":"337","author":"Dillner","year":"2008","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"issue":"10197","key":"zoi210460r37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"497","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(19)30298-3","article-title":"Population-level impact and herd effects following the introduction of human papillomavirus vaccination programmes: updated systematic review and meta-analysis.","volume":"394","author":"Drolet","year":"2019","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi210460r38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"155","DOI":"10.1038\/s41416-020-0850-6","article-title":"Impact of HPV vaccination on cervical screening performance: a population-based cohort study.","volume":"123","author":"Lei","year":"2020","journal-title":"Br J Cancer"},{"issue":"12","key":"zoi210460r39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1437","DOI":"10.1111\/bjo.2004.111.issue-12","article-title":"Testing positive for human papillomavirus in routine cervical screening: examination of psychosocial impact.","volume":"111","author":"McCaffery","year":"2004","journal-title":"BJOG"},{"issue":"7","key":"zoi210460r40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"508","DOI":"10.1136\/sti.2009.037028","article-title":"The psychosocial burden of human papillomavirus related disease and screening interventions.","volume":"85","author":"Pirotta","year":"2009","journal-title":"Sex Transm Infect"},{"issue":"5","key":"zoi210460r41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"445","DOI":"10.1111\/aog.2011.90.issue-5","article-title":"Psychological burden of testing positive for high-risk human papillomavirus on women with atypical cervical cytology: a prospective study.","volume":"90","author":"Kwan","year":"2011","journal-title":"Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand"},{"issue":"11","key":"zoi210460r42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"716","DOI":"10.1136\/jech.53.11.716","article-title":"Perceived sensitivity of mammographic screening: women\u2019s views on test accuracy and financial compensation for missed cancers.","volume":"53","author":"Barratt","year":"1999","journal-title":"J Epidemiol Community Health"},{"issue":"2","key":"zoi210460r45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"200.e1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajog.2020.08.026","article-title":"Benefit and burden in the Dutch cytology-based vs high-risk human papillomavirus-based cervical cancer screening program.","volume":"224","author":"Loopik","year":"2021","journal-title":"Am J Obstet Gynecol"},{"issue":"12","key":"zoi210460r46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3305","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.v147.12","article-title":"Defining benchmarks for tolerable risk thresholds in cancer screening: impact of HPV vaccination on the future of cervical cancer screening.","volume":"147","author":"Tota","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int J Cancer"},{"key":"zoi210460r43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780199390076.001.0001","volume-title":"Simply Rational: Decision Making in the Real World","author":"Gigerenzer","year":"2015"},{"key":"zoi210460r44","volume-title":"The Irrational Ape: Why Flawed Logic Puts Us All at Risk and How Critical Thinking Can Save the World","author":"Grimes","year":"2019"},{"key":"zoi210460r9","unstructured":"Penney and ors v East Kent Health Authority. 1999. Accessed May 26, 2021. https:\/\/www.casemine.com\/judgement\/uk\/5b46f1ec2c94e0775e7ee269"},{"key":"zoi210460r10","unstructured":"Morrissey and anor v Health Service Executive and ors. 2019. Accessed May 26, 2021. https:\/\/www.bailii.org\/ie\/cases\/IEHC\/2019\/H268.html"},{"key":"zoi210460r17","unstructured":"Public Health England. Cervical screening: primary HPV screening implementation [Internet]. Updated February 22, 2019. Accessed May 26, 2021. https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/cervical-screening-primary-hpv-screening-implementation#protocols"},{"key":"zoi210460r18","unstructured":"Cancer Council Australia. National Cervical Screening Program: guidelines for the management of screen-detected abnormalities, screening in specific populations and investigation of abnormal vaginal bleeding. Accessed May 26, 2021. https:\/\/wiki.cancer.org.au\/australia\/Guidelines:Cervical_cancer\/Screening"}],"container-title":["JAMA Network Open"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jamanetworkopen\/articlepdf\/2781509\/grimes_2021_oi_210460_1624389743.96089.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,30]],"date-time":"2021-06-30T18:38:25Z","timestamp":1625078305000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jamanetworkopen\/fullarticle\/2781509"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,30]]},"references-count":46,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2021.15321","relation":{},"ISSN":["2574-3805"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2574-3805","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,30]]}}}