{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,1]],"date-time":"2026-11-01T14:47:04Z","timestamp":1793544424084,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":47,"publisher":"American Medical Association (AMA)","issue":"5","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JAMA Netw Open"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"ab-zoi240438-4\"><jats:title>Importance<\/jats:title><jats:p>Reducing the pretrial detention population has been a cornerstone of movements to end mass incarceration. Across many US cities, there are ongoing public debates on policies that would end pretrial detention due to the inability to afford bail, with some raising concerns that doing so would increase community violence.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"ab-zoi240438-5\"><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>To evaluate changes in firearm violence after New Jersey\u2019s 2017 bail reform policy that eliminated financial barriers to avoiding pretrial detention.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"ab-zoi240438-6\"><jats:title>Design, Setting, and Participants<\/jats:title><jats:p>This case-control study used synthetic control methods to examine changes in firearm mortality and combined fatal and nonfatal shootings in New Jersey (2014-2019). New Jersey was chosen because it was one of the first states to systematically implement cash bail reform. Outcomes in New Jersey were compared with a weighted combination of 36 states that did not implement any kind of reform to pretrial detention during the study period. Data were analyzed from April 2023 to March 2024.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"ab-zoi240438-7\"><jats:title>Exposure<\/jats:title><jats:p>Implementation of New Jersey\u2019s cash bail reform law in 2017.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"ab-zoi240438-8\"><jats:title>Main Outcomes and Measures<\/jats:title><jats:p>Quarterly rates of fatal and nonfatal firearm assault injuries and firearm self-harm injuries per 100\u202f000 people.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"ab-zoi240438-9\"><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Although New Jersey\u2019s pretrial detention population dramatically decreased under bail reform, the study did not find evidence of increases in overall firearm mortality (average treatment effect on the treated, \u22120.26 deaths per 100\u202f000) or gun violence (average treatment effect on the treated, \u22120.24 deaths per 100\u202f000), or within racialized groups during the postpolicy period.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"ab-zoi240438-10\"><jats:title>Conclusions and Relevance<\/jats:title><jats:p>Incarceration and gun violence are major public health problems impacting racially and economically marginalized groups. Cash bail reform may be an important tool for reducing pretrial detention and advancing health equity without exacerbating community violence.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2024.12535","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,22]],"date-time":"2024-05-22T15:34:30Z","timestamp":1716392070000},"page":"e2412535","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["Evaluating Firearm Violence After New Jersey\u2019s Cash Bail Reform"],"prefix":"10.1001","volume":"7","author":[{"given":"Jaquelyn L.","family":"Jahn","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"The Ubuntu Center on Racism, Global Movements, and Population Health Equity, Drexel University Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jessica T.","family":"Simes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Sociology, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jonathan","family":"Jay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Community Health Sciences, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"10","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,22]]},"reference":[{"issue":"4","key":"zoi240438r4","first-page":"775","article-title":"The downstream effects of bail and pretrial detention on racial disparities in incarceration.","volume":"108","author":"Donnelly","year":"2018","journal-title":"J Crim Law Criminol"},{"issue":"3","key":"zoi240438r11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"150","DOI":"10.1257\/app.20210349","article-title":"Does cash bail deter misconduct?","volume":"15","author":"Ouss","year":"2023","journal-title":"Am Econ J Appl Econ"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi240438r15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1257\/jel.20141147","article-title":"Criminal deterrence: a review of the literature.","volume":"55","author":"Chalfin","year":"2017","journal-title":"J Econ Lit"},{"issue":"5328","key":"zoi240438r16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"918","DOI":"10.1126\/science.277.5328.918","article-title":"Neighborhoods and violent crime: a multilevel study of collective efficacy.","volume":"277","author":"Sampson","year":"1997","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"3","key":"zoi240438r17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"441","DOI":"10.1111\/crim.1998.36.issue-3","article-title":"Incarceration, social capital, and crime: implications for social disorganization theory.","volume":"36","author":"Rose","year":"1998","journal-title":"Criminology"},{"key":"zoi240438r19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"265","DOI":"10.1146\/criminol.2019.2.issue-1","article-title":"Jail incarceration: a common and consequential form of criminal justice contact.","volume":"2","author":"Turney","year":"2019","journal-title":"Annu Rev Criminol"},{"issue":"3","key":"zoi240438r20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"195","DOI":"10.1111\/fare.2003.52.issue-3","article-title":"Saturday morning at the jail: implications of incarceration for families and children.","volume":"52","author":"Arditti","year":"2003","journal-title":"Fam Relat"},{"issue":"2","key":"zoi240438r21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamapediatrics.2021.4822","article-title":"Association of county-level poverty and inequities with firearm-related mortality in US youth.","volume":"176","author":"Barrett","year":"2022","journal-title":"JAMA Pediatr"},{"issue":"3","key":"zoi240438r22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"207","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1024930208331","article-title":"Neighborhood disadvantage, individual economic distress and violence against women in intimate relationships.","volume":"19","author":"Benson","year":"2003","journal-title":"J Quant Criminol"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi240438r23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"103","DOI":"10.1521\/suli.2007.37.issue-1","article-title":"Economic strain and suicide risk: a qualitative analysis.","volume":"37","author":"Stack","year":"2007","journal-title":"Suicide Life Threat Behav"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi240438r24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"137","DOI":"10.1017\/S0033291703008584","article-title":"Suicide at 50 years of age and older: perceived physical illness, family discord and financial strain.","volume":"34","author":"Duberstein","year":"2004","journal-title":"Psychol Med"},{"issue":"6","key":"zoi240438r26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"935","DOI":"10.1177\/15248399211008238","article-title":"Racial\/ethnic inequities in adverse childhood experiences and selected health-related behaviors and problems among Maryland adolescents.","volume":"23","author":"Johnson","year":"2022","journal-title":"Health Promot Pract"},{"issue":"12","key":"zoi240438r28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2700","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwab211","article-title":"Synthetic control methods for the evaluation of single-unit interventions in epidemiology: a tutorial.","volume":"190","author":"Bonander","year":"2021","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"issue":"3","key":"zoi240438r29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.1007\/s40471-022-00294-9","article-title":"Synthetic control methodology for examining firearm policy.","volume":"9","author":"Esposti","year":"2022","journal-title":"Curr Epidemiol Rep"},{"issue":"10077","key":"zoi240438r30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1453","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(17)30569-X","article-title":"Structural racism and health inequities in the USA: evidence and interventions.","volume":"389","author":"Bailey","year":"2017","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi240438r31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"85","DOI":"10.1136\/ip-2022-044700","article-title":"An intersectional analysis of historical and contemporary structural racism on non-fatal shootings in Baltimore, Maryland.","volume":"29","author":"Uzzi","year":"2023","journal-title":"Inj Prev"},{"issue":"8","key":"zoi240438r32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"977","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jaac.2022.04.006","article-title":"Editorial: racial battle fatigue: the toll of policing Black students.","volume":"61","author":"Williams","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry"},{"issue":"5","key":"zoi240438r33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"580","DOI":"10.1111\/jcpp.v62.5","article-title":"Commentary: reducing youth firearm violence and the associated health disparities requires enhanced surveillance and modern behavioral intervention strategies\u2014a commentary on Bottiani et al. (2021).","volume":"62","author":"Goldstick","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Child Psychol Psychiatry"},{"issue":"6","key":"zoi240438r34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2023.16545","article-title":"Assessing the gun violence archive as an epidemiologic data source for community firearm violence in 4 US cities.","volume":"6","author":"Gobaud","year":"2023","journal-title":"JAMA Netw Open"},{"issue":"2","key":"zoi240438r35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"256","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.2015.302955","article-title":"Public health monitoring of privilege and deprivation with the index of concentration at the extremes.","volume":"106","author":"Krieger","year":"2016","journal-title":"Am J Public Health"},{"issue":"5","key":"zoi240438r36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1522","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyad032","article-title":"A comparison of quasi-experimental methods with data before and after an intervention: an introduction for epidemiologists and a simulation study.","volume":"52","author":"Nianogo","year":"2023","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol"},{"issue":"536","key":"zoi240438r38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1849","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2021.1920957","article-title":"An exact and robust conformal inference method for counterfactual and synthetic controls.","volume":"116","author":"Chernozhukov","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc"},{"key":"zoi240438r44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ypmed.2019.02.026","article-title":"Violent death rates in the US compared to those of the other high-income countries, 2015.","volume":"123","author":"Grinshteyn","year":"2019","journal-title":"Prev Med"},{"issue":"5","key":"zoi240438r45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2023.12425","article-title":"Structural racism and long-term disparities in youth exposure to firearm violence.","volume":"6","author":"Jay","year":"2023","journal-title":"JAMA Netw Open"},{"issue":"7960","key":"zoi240438r46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"344","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-023-05980-2","article-title":"COVID-19 amplified racial disparities in the US criminal legal system.","volume":"617","author":"Klein","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"zoi240438r14","volume-title":"Uneasy Peace: The Great Crime Decline, the Renewal of City Life, and the Next War on Violence","author":"Sharkey","year":"2018"},{"key":"zoi240438r18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780195305791.001.0001","volume-title":"Imprisoning Communities: How Mass Incarceration Makes Disadvantaged Neighborhoods Worse","author":"Clear","year":"2007"},{"key":"zoi240438r1","unstructured":"Minton? TD, Zeng? Z. Jail inmates in 2020\u2014statistical tables. Bureau of Justice Statistics. December 2021. Accessed March 22, 2022. https:\/\/bjs.ojp.gov\/library\/publications\/jail-inmates-2020-statistical-tables"},{"key":"zoi240438r2","unstructured":"Sawyer? W, Wagner? P. Mass incarceration: the whole pie 2022. Prison Policy Initiative. March 14, 2022. Accessed April 25, 2022. https:\/\/www.prisonpolicy.org\/reports\/pie2022.html"},{"key":"zoi240438r3","unstructured":"Zeng? Z, Minton? TD. Jail inmates in 2019. US Department of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics. March 2021. Accessed April 11, 2024. https:\/\/bjs.ojp.gov\/content\/pub\/pdf\/ji19.pdf"},{"key":"zoi240438r5","unstructured":"Reaves? BA. Felony defendants in large urban counties, 2009\u2014statistical tables. Bureau of Justice Statistics. December 2013. Accessed April 11, 2024. https:\/\/bjs.ojp.gov\/library\/publications\/felony-defendants-large-urban-counties-2009-statistical-tables"},{"key":"zoi240438r6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Jorgensen? I, Smith? SS. The current state of bail reform in the United States: results of a landscape analysis of bail reforms across all 50 states. December 2021. Accessed April 11, 2024. https:\/\/www.hks.harvard.edu\/publications\/current-state-bail-reform-united-states-results-landscape-analysis-bail-reforms-across","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3975594"},{"key":"zoi240438r7","unstructured":"New Jersey State Legislature. P.L. 2014, c.31. An act concerning court administration, supplementing Titles 2A and 2B of the New Jersey Statutes, and amending P.L.1995, c.325. August 11, 2014. Accessed April 11, 2024. https:\/\/pub.njleg.gov\/Bills\/2014\/AL14\/31_.HTM"},{"key":"zoi240438r8","unstructured":"New Jersey Courts. Executive order No. 211 study: an analysis of potential challenges and benefits of criminal justice reform. 2016. Accessed April 11, 2024. https:\/\/www.nj.gov\/oag\/library\/Executive-Order-211--FINAL-REPORT--11.30.16.pdf"},{"key":"zoi240438r9","unstructured":"New Jersey Courts. Initial release decisions for criminal justice reform eligible defendants. Accessed April 11, 2024. https:\/\/www.njcourts.gov\/public\/concerns\/criminal-justice-reform"},{"key":"zoi240438r10","unstructured":"Staudt? S. Releasing people pretrial doesn\u2019t harm public safety. Prison Policy Initiative. July 6, 2023. Accessed August 1, 2023. https:\/\/www.prisonpolicy.org\/blog\/2023\/07\/06\/bail-reform\/"},{"key":"zoi240438r12","unstructured":"Trentonian Staff. One year in, New Jersey\u2019s bail reform still a contentious issue. Homicide Watch Trenton. December 30, 2017. Accessed March 22, 2022. http:\/\/trenton.homicidewatch.org\/2017\/12\/30\/one-year-in-new-jerseys-bail-reform-still-a-contentious-issue\/"},{"key":"zoi240438r13","unstructured":"Friedman? M, Spector? J. New Jersey overhauled its bail system under Christie. Now some Democrats want to roll it back. Politico. December 11, 2022. Accessed August 15, 2023. https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2022\/12\/11\/new-jersey-bail-system-roll-back-00072781"},{"key":"zoi240438r25","unstructured":"Branas? C, Buggs? S, Butts? JA, Harvey? A, Kerrison? EM. Reducing violence without police: a review of research evidence. John Jay Research and Evaluation Center. 2020. Accessed December 31, 2021. https:\/\/johnjayrec.nyc\/2020\/11\/09\/av2020\/"},{"key":"zoi240438r27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ben-Michael? E, Feller? A, Rothstein? J. The augmented synthetic control method. NBER working paper series. June 2021. Accessed April 11, 2024. https:\/\/www.nber.org\/system\/files\/working_papers\/w28885\/w28885.pdf","DOI":"10.3386\/w28885"},{"key":"zoi240438r37","unstructured":"Pickett? REM, Hill? J, Cowan? SK. The myths of synthetic control: recommendations for practice. September 2022. Accessed April 11, 2024. https:\/\/as.nyu.edu\/content\/dam\/nyu-as\/cashtransferlab\/documents\/RPJHSC_SyntheticControl_041122.pdf"},{"key":"zoi240438r39","unstructured":"Smith? EL. Female murder victims and victim-offender relationship, 2021. Bureau of Justice Statistics. December 1, 2022. Accessed April 11, 2024. https:\/\/bjs.ojp.gov\/female-murder-victims-and-victim-offender-relationship-2021"},{"key":"zoi240438r40","unstructured":"Grant? GA. Annual report to the governor and the legislature: Jan. 1-Dec. 31, 2020. New Jersey Courts. October 2021. Accessed April 11, 2024. https:\/\/www.njcourts.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/courts\/criminal\/2020cjrannual.pdf"},{"key":"zoi240438r41","unstructured":"Stemen? D, Olson? D. Dollars and sense in Cook County: examining the impact of General Order 18.8A on felony bond court decisions, pretrial release, and crime. Loyola University Chicago. 2020. Accessed April 11, 2024. https:\/\/www.safetyandjusticechallenge.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Report-Dollars-and-Sense-in-Cook-County.pdf"},{"key":"zoi240438r42","unstructured":"Skemer? M, Redcross? C, Bloom? H. Pursuing pretrial justice through an alternative to bail: findings from an evaluation of New York City\u2019s supervised release program. MDRC. September 21, 2020. Accessed June 23, 2023. https:\/\/www.mdrc.org\/publication\/pursuing-pretrial-justice-through-alternative-bail"},{"key":"zoi240438r43","unstructured":"Grant? GA. Annual report to the governor and the legislature: criminal justice reform. New Jersey Courts. 2021. Accessed April 11, 2024. https:\/\/www.njcourts.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/courts\/criminal\/criminal-justice-reform\/cjr2021.pdf"},{"key":"zoi240438r47","unstructured":"Smucker? S. Effects of prohibitions associated with domestic violence on violent crime. RAND Corporation. January 10, 2023. Accessed August 1, 2023. https:\/\/www.rand.org\/research\/gun-policy\/analysis\/domestic-violence-prohibitions\/violent-crime.html"}],"container-title":["JAMA Network Open"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jamanetworkopen\/articlepdf\/2818885\/jahn_2024_oi_240438_1715318996.72155.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,22]],"date-time":"2024-05-22T15:34:37Z","timestamp":1716392077000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jamanetworkopen\/fullarticle\/2818885"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,22]]},"references-count":47,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2024.12535","relation":{},"ISSN":["2574-3805"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2574-3805","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,22]]}}}