{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T16:50:10Z","timestamp":1790873410390,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"American Medical Association (AMA)","issue":"9","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JAMA Netw Open"],"abstract":"Importance<\/jats:title>Extreme heat in the US is increasing due to climate change, while extreme cold is projected to decline. Understanding how extreme temperature along with demographic changes will affect population health is important for devising policies to mitigate the health outcome of climate change.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>Objective<\/jats:title>To assess the burden of extreme temperature\u2013related deaths in the contiguous US currently (2008-2019) and estimate the burden in the mid\u201321st century (2036-2065).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>Design, Setting, and Participants<\/jats:title>This cross-sectional study used historical (1979-2000) daily mean temperatures to calculate monthly extreme heat (&amp;gt;97.5th percentile value) and extreme cold days (&amp;lt;2.5th percentile value) for all contiguous US counties for 2008 to 2019 (current period). Temperature projections from 20 climate models and county population projections were used to estimate extreme temperature\u2013related deaths for 2036 to 2065 (mid\u201321st century period). Data were analyzed from November 2023 to July 2024.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>Exposure<\/jats:title>Current monthly frequency of extreme heat days and projected mid\u201321st century frequency using 2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5, representing socioeconomic development with a lower emissions increase, and SSP5-8.5, representing higher emissions increase.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>Main Outcomes and Measures<\/jats:title>Mean annual estimated number of extreme temperature\u2013related excess deaths. Poisson regression model with county, month, and year fixed effects was used to estimate the association between extreme temperature and monthly all-cause mortality for older adults (aged \u226565 years) and younger adults (aged 18-64 years).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>Results<\/jats:title>Across the contiguous US, extreme temperature days were associated with 8248.6 (95% CI, 4242.6-12\u202f254.6) deaths annually in the current period and with 19 348.7 (95% CI, 11 388.7-27\u202f308.6) projected deaths in the SSP2-4.5 scenario and 26 574.0 (95% CI, 15 408.0-37\u202f740.1) in the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The mortality data included 30 924 133 decedents, of whom 15 573 699 were males (50.4%), with 6.3% of Hispanic ethnicity, 11.5% of non-Hispanic Black race, and 79.3% of non-Hispanic White race. Non-Hispanic Black adults (278.2%; 95% CI, 158.9%-397.5%) and Hispanic adults (537.5%; 95% CI, 261.6%-813.4%) were projected to have greater increases in extreme temperature\u2013related deaths from the current period to the mid\u201321st century period compared with non-Hispanic White adults (70.8%; 95% CI, \u22125.8% to 147.3%).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>Conclusions and Relevance<\/jats:title>This cross-sectional study found that extreme temperature\u2013related deaths in the contiguous US were projected to increase substantially by mid\u201321st century, with certain populations, such as non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic adults, projected to disproportionately experience this increase. The results point to the need to mitigate the adverse outcome of extreme temperatures for population health.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2024.34942","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,20]],"date-time":"2024-09-20T15:31:25Z","timestamp":1726846285000},"page":"e2434942","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":20,"title":["Projections of Extreme Temperature\u2013Related Deaths in the US"],"prefix":"10.1001","volume":"7","author":[{"given":"Sameed Ahmed M.","family":"Khatana","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia"},{"name":"Penn Cardiovascular Outcomes, Quality, and Evaluative Research Center, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia"},{"name":"The Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania, 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