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Estimates of future productivity losses could inform advocacy and policy making.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>Objective<\/jats:title>To estimate the productivity losses of long-term back problems in working-age Australians (aged 15-64 years) over the next 10 years (2024-2033).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>Design, Setting, and Participants<\/jats:title>This modeling study used a dynamic population-level model to simulate the population of working Australians with long-term back problems. Age- and sex-specific prevalence and workforce participation data were obtained from the 2022 National Health Survey. Excess all-cause mortality, absenteeism, and presenteeism data due to long-term back problems were derived from published sources.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>Main Outcomes and Measures<\/jats:title>Primary outcomes were years of life lost, full-time equivalent workers lost, and productivity losses due to long-term back problems. Productivity losses were estimated as productivity-adjusted life-years and associated costs to Australia\u2019s gross domestic product (GDP).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>Results<\/jats:title>In 2024, 2 950 538 Australians had long-term back problems, which was projected to increase to 3 258 612 million by 2033. Long-term back problems resulted in an estimated loss of 3 394 255 productivity-adjusted life-years over the 10-year period, equating to a loss of more than 638 billion Australian dollars in Australia\u2019s GDP. Reducing the relative prevalence and incidence of long-term back problems by 10% was estimated to result in a gain of 41.4 billion Australian dollars in GDP over the 10-year period.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>Conclusions and Relevance<\/jats:title>In this modeling study estimating future productivity losses from long-term back problems, substantial economic gains could be achieved from reducing the prevalence and impact of the condition. 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