{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,21]],"date-time":"2026-10-21T13:48:13Z","timestamp":1792590493324,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"American Medical Association (AMA)","issue":"4","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JAMA Netw Open"],"abstract":"Importance<\/jats:title>There are still significant population-level health consequences of cigarette smoking in US states.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>Objective<\/jats:title>To estimate whether differential sociodemographic trends in smoking prevalence since 1992 will close the prevalence gap between states by 2035.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>Design, Setting, and Participants<\/jats:title>This cross-sectional study included data from 18 repeated, state-representative US Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Surveys (TUS-CPS) from 1992 to 2022. Data were analyzed between June and October 2024.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>Main Outcomes and Measures<\/jats:title>Nonlinear time series trends in smoking prevalence in US states from 1992 to 2022 were projected through 2035 and compared with recommended targets. States were grouped into tertiles using their 1990s prevalence. Differential change in sociodemographic groups were compared across tertiles.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>Results<\/jats:title>The 18 surveys comprised 1\u202f770\u202f442 respondents (997\u202f569 female [56.3%]; 146\u202f865 Hispanic [8.3%], 160\u202f751 non-Hispanic Black [9.1%], and 1\u202f373\u202f454 non-Hispanic White [78.0%]). From 1992 to 2022, all state tertiles experienced significant declines in smoking prevalence, each decreasing by approximately 13 percentage points from 2001 to 2022. In 2022, prevalence was 7.4% (95% CI, 6.9% to 7.9%) in tertile 1 (lowest 1990s prevalence), 10.0% (95% CI, 9.2% to 10.8%) in tertile 2, and 12.7% (95% CI, 11.9% to 13.4%) in tertile 3. Projections to 2035 indicated the prevalence gap closing between tertiles, to 3.8% (95% CI, 2.6% to 5.1%) in tertile 1, to 5.1% (95% CI, 3.2% to 7.2%) in tertile 2, and to 6.6% (95% CI, 4.8% to 9.1%) in tertile 3. The only sociodemographic trend that reduced the gap occurred among individuals aged 18 to 24 year (tertile 3 change, \u221221.3% [95% CI, \u221224.5% to \u221218.2%] vs tertile 1 change, \u221216.4% [95% CI, \u221218.5% to \u221214.4%]; P<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u2009.005). Yet age was not a significant factor in projected changes, as the decline in the group aged 50 years and older was greater in tertile 1 than 3 (\u22124.7% [95% CI, \u22125.7% to \u22123.8%] vs \u22122.3% [95% CI, \u22123.5% to \u22121.2%]; P<\/jats:italic>\u2009&amp;lt;\u2009.001). By 2035, only 4 states (California, Utah, Hawaii, and Colorado) were projected to be significantly under the recommended target of 5% prevalence.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>Conclusions and Relevance<\/jats:title>The findings of these repeated cross-sectional surveys suggest that the difference in cigarette smoking prevalence between historically high vs low prevalence states will shrink by 2035, primarily from much faster declines among young adults in the traditionally highest prevalence states. Slower prevalence declines among older adults are likely to slow the decline in health consequences in these states.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2025.6834","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,25]],"date-time":"2025-04-25T15:30:45Z","timestamp":1745595045000},"page":"e256834","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["State and Sociodemographic Trends in US Cigarette Smoking With Future Projections"],"prefix":"10.1001","volume":"8","author":[{"given":"Matthew D.","family":"Stone","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla"},{"name":"Moores Cancer Center, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"John P.","family":"Pierce","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla"},{"name":"Moores Cancer Center, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Brian","family":"Dang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sara B.","family":"McMenamin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Candice D.","family":"Donaldson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Tobacco Control Branch, California Department of Public Health, California Health and Human Services Agency, Sacramento"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xueying","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Tobacco Control Branch, California Department of Public Health, California Health and Human Services Agency, Sacramento"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David R.","family":"Strong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla"},{"name":"Moores Cancer Center, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yuyan","family":"Shi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Karen","family":"Messer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla"},{"name":"Moores Cancer Center, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dennis R.","family":"Trinidad","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla"},{"name":"Moores Cancer Center, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"10","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,25]]},"reference":[{"issue":"11","key":"zoi250264r3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2801","DOI":"10.1158\/1055-9965.EPI-10-0563","article-title":"Forty years of faster decline in cigarette smoking in California explains current lower lung cancer rates.","volume":"19","author":"Pierce","year":"2010","journal-title":"Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev"},{"issue":"4682","key":"zoi250264r4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"739","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.2.4682.739","article-title":"Smoking and carcinoma of the lung: preliminary report.","volume":"2","author":"Doll","year":"1950","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"issue":"4","key":"zoi250264r5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"329","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.1950.02910390001001","article-title":"Tobacco smoking as a possible etiologic factor in bronchiogenic carcinoma; a study of 684 proved cases.","volume":"143","author":"Wynder","year":"1950","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"18","key":"zoi250264r8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"475","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm7218a1","article-title":"Tobacco product use among adults\u2014United States, 2021.","volume":"72","author":"Cornelius","year":"2023","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep"},{"issue":"5","key":"zoi250264r9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"431","DOI":"10.1136\/tc.2010.036681","article-title":"Ending appreciable tobacco use in a nation: using a sinking lid on supply.","volume":"19","author":"Thomson","year":"2010","journal-title":"Tob Control"},{"issue":"5","key":"zoi250264r10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"349","DOI":"10.1136\/tc.2010.039727","article-title":"Imagining things otherwise: new endgame ideas for tobacco control.","volume":"19","author":"Malone","year":"2010","journal-title":"Tob Control"},{"issue":"9877","key":"zoi250264r12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1570","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(13)60735-7","article-title":"Understanding the Tobacco Control Act: efforts by the US Food and Drug Administration to make tobacco-related morbidity and mortality part of the USA\u2019s past, not its future.","volume":"381","author":"Husten","year":"2013","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"29","key":"zoi250264r13","first-page":"605","article-title":"Response to increases in cigarette prices by race\/ethnicity, income, and age groups\u2013United States, 1976-1993.","volume":"47","author":"Farrelly","year":"1998","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep"},{"key":"zoi250264r14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"235","DOI":"10.1136\/tc.2010.039982","article-title":"Effectiveness of tax and price policies for tobacco control.","volume":"14","author":"Chaloupka","year":"2011","journal-title":"Tob Control"},{"issue":"12","key":"zoi250264r15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1570","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.1990.03450120082034","article-title":"Reducing tobacco consumption in California\u2014development of a statewide anti-tobacco use campaign.","volume":"264","author":"Bal","year":"1990","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"Suppl_1","key":"zoi250264r16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"i3","DOI":"10.1136\/tc.2009.030809","article-title":"The quarter that changed the world.","volume":"19","author":"Roeseler","year":"2010","journal-title":"Tob Control"},{"issue":"10","key":"zoi250264r17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"893","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.280.10.893","article-title":"Has the California tobacco control program reduced smoking?","volume":"280","author":"Pierce","year":"1998","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"7257","key":"zoi250264r18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"351","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.321.7257.351","article-title":"Impact of the Massachusetts tobacco control programme: population based trend analysis.","volume":"321","author":"Biener","year":"2000","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"issue":"5","key":"zoi250264r19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"843","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-6296(03)00057-2","article-title":"The impact of tobacco control program expenditures on aggregate cigarette sales: 1981-2000.","volume":"22","author":"Farrelly","year":"2003","journal-title":"J Health Econ"},{"issue":"12","key":"zoi250264r20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1967","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.91.12.1967","article-title":"Implications for tobacco control of the multistate tobacco settlement.","volume":"91","author":"Daynard","year":"2001","journal-title":"Am J Public Health"},{"key":"zoi250264r21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/tc-2023-058483","article-title":"Cigarette smoking decline among US young adults from 2000 to 2019, in relation to state-level cigarette price and tobacco control expenditure.","author":"Messer","year":"2024","journal-title":"Tob Control"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi250264r22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1158\/1940-6207.CAPR-18-0341","article-title":"Trends in lung cancer and cigarette smoking: California compared to the rest of the United States.","volume":"12","author":"Pierce","year":"2019","journal-title":"Cancer Prev Res (Phila)"},{"issue":"4","key":"zoi250264r23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S53","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amepre.2022.12.006","article-title":"Mortality relative risks by smoking, race\/ethnicity, and education.","volume":"64","author":"Jeon","year":"2023","journal-title":"Am J Prev Med"},{"issue":"10","key":"zoi250264r24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2022.31480","article-title":"Association between smoking, smoking cessation, and mortality by race, ethnicity, and sex among US adults.","volume":"5","author":"Thomson","year":"2022","journal-title":"JAMA Netw Open"},{"issue":"4","key":"zoi250264r25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"718","DOI":"10.1093\/ntr\/ntac238","article-title":"Trends in education-related smoking disparities among U.S. Black or African American and White adults: intersections of race, sex, and region.","volume":"25","author":"Choi","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nicotine Tob Res"},{"issue":"3","key":"zoi250264r26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0282893","article-title":"Trends in cigarette consumption across the United States, with projections to 2035.","volume":"18","author":"Leas","year":"2023","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"6","key":"zoi250264r30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"909","DOI":"10.1093\/ntr\/ntaa231","article-title":"Racial\/ethnic disparities across indicators of cigarette smoking in the era of increased tobacco control, 1992-2019.","volume":"23","author":"Sakuma","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nicotine Tob Res"},{"issue":"4","key":"zoi250264r31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S22","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amepre.2022.06.021","article-title":"Smoking disparities by level of educational attainment and birth cohort in the U.S.","volume":"64","author":"Cao","year":"2023","journal-title":"Am J Prev Med"},{"issue":"3","key":"zoi250264r33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/wics.1460","article-title":"The Akaike information criterion: Background, derivation, properties, application, interpretation and refinements.","volume":"11","author":"Cavanagh","year":"2019","journal-title":"Wiley Interdiscip Rev Comput Stat"},{"key":"zoi250264r34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"482","DOI":"10.26438\/ijcse\/v6i4.482485","article-title":"A study on exponential smoothing method for forecasting.","volume":"6","author":"Shastri","year":"2018","journal-title":"Int J Comput Sci Eng"},{"issue":"29","key":"zoi250264r36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"633","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm7329a1","article-title":"Adult smoking cessation\u2013United States, 2022.","volume":"73","author":"VanFrank","year":"2024","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep"},{"issue":"1","key":"zoi250264r37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1203","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-021-11283-w","article-title":"A comparison of tobacco product prevalence by different frequency of use thresholds across three US surveys.","volume":"21","author":"S\u00e1nchez-Romero","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"zoi250264r39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"i38","DOI":"10.1136\/tobaccocontrol-2016-053012","article-title":"Estimating cigarette tax avoidance and evasion: evidence from a national sample of littered packs.","volume":"25","author":"Barker","year":"2016","journal-title":"Tob Control"},{"key":"zoi250264r35","volume-title":"Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control","author":"Box","year":"2016","edition":"5th ed"},{"key":"zoi250264r1","unstructured":"US Office of the Surgeon General. Smoking and health: report of the advisory committee to the Surgeon General of the Public Health Service. PHS Publication No. 1103. 1964. Accessed October 29, 2024. https:\/\/profiles.nlm.nih.gov\/101584932X202"},{"key":"zoi250264r2","unstructured":"National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (US) Office on Smoking and Health. The health consequences of smoking\u201450 years of progress: a report of the Surgeon General. 2014. Accessed October 29, 2024. https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/books\/NBK179276\/"},{"key":"zoi250264r6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ahmed? PI, Gleeson? GA. Changes in Cigarette Smoking Habits between 1955 and 1966. National Health Survey Vital Health and Statistics, Series 10 No, 59, April 1970. Accessed October 29, 2024. https:\/\/stacks.cdc.gov\/view\/cdc\/12522\/cdc_12522_DS1.pdf","DOI":"10.1037\/e609392007-001"},{"key":"zoi250264r7","unstructured":"Trosclair? HC, Pederson? L. Cigarette smoking among adults\u2014United States, 2000. MMWR. 2002;51(29):642-645."},{"key":"zoi250264r11","unstructured":"United States Department of Health and Human Services. Reduce current cigarette smoking in adults\u2014TU-02. Healthy People 2030. Accessed October 29, 2024. https:\/\/health.gov\/healthypeople\/objectives-and-data\/browse-objectives\/tobacco-use\/reduce-current-cigarette-smoking-adults-tu-02"},{"key":"zoi250264r27","unstructured":"National Cancer Institute. The tobacco use supplement to the current population survey. Last updated May 2023. Accessed October 29, 2024. https:\/\/cancercontrol.cancer.gov\/brp\/tcrb\/tus-cps"},{"key":"zoi250264r28","unstructured":"US Bureau of the Census. Current population survey methodology. Revised June 4, 2024. Accessed October 29, 2024. https:\/\/www.census.gov\/programs-surveys\/cps\/technical-documentation\/methodology.html"},{"key":"zoi250264r29","unstructured":"Liu? B. Fay\u2019s variance estimation method for combining multiple TUS-CPS data. Surveillance Research Program, National Cancer Institute technical report No. 2020-1. Published online 2020. Accessed October 29, 2024. https:\/\/surveillance.cancer.gov\/reports\/tech2020.01.pdf"},{"key":"zoi250264r32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hyndman? RJ, Khandakar? Y. Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R.? J Stat Softw. 2008;27:1-22. doi:10.18637\/jss.v000.i00","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v027.i03"},{"key":"zoi250264r38","unstructured":"Hawaii Beach Rentals. How many people visit Hawaii each year\u2014tourism statistics. Accessed October 29, 2024. https:\/\/www.hawaiianbeachrentals.com\/hawaiitravelblog\/how-many-people-visit-hawaii-each-year-tourism-statistics\/"},{"key":"zoi250264r40","unstructured":"Virginia State Crime Commission. Illegal cigarette trafficking. 2013. Accessed October 29, 2024. https:\/\/vscc.virginia.gov\/Illegal%20Cigarette%20Trafficking.pdf"}],"container-title":["JAMA Network Open"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jamanetworkopen\/articlepdf\/2833289\/stone_2025_oi_250264_1744992060.95444.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,25]],"date-time":"2025-04-25T15:30:49Z","timestamp":1745595049000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jamanetworkopen\/fullarticle\/2833289"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,25]]},"references-count":40,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2025.6834","relation":{},"ISSN":["2574-3805"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2574-3805","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,25]]}}}