{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,26]],"date-time":"2026-09-26T17:28:37Z","timestamp":1790443717143,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"American Medical Association (AMA)","issue":"4","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JAMA Pediatr"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,1]]},"DOI":"10.1001\/jamapediatrics.2020.5602","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,25]],"date-time":"2021-01-25T20:47:09Z","timestamp":1611607629000},"page":"385","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":198,"title":["Population vs Individual Prediction of Poor Health From Results of Adverse Childhood Experiences Screening"],"prefix":"10.1001","volume":"175","author":[{"given":"Jessie R.","family":"Baldwin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Psychology and Language Sciences, Department of Clinical, Educational and Health Psychology, University College London, London, United Kingdom"},{"name":"Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King\u2019s College London, London, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Avshalom","family":"Caspi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King\u2019s College London, London, United Kingdom"},{"name":"Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina"},{"name":"PROMENTA, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway"},{"name":"Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alan J.","family":"Meehan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King\u2019s College London, London, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Antony","family":"Ambler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Louise","family":"Arseneault","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King\u2019s College London, London, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Helen L.","family":"Fisher","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King\u2019s College London, London, United Kingdom"},{"name":"Economic and Social Research Council Centre for Society and Mental Health, King\u2019s College London, London, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"HonaLee","family":"Harrington","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Timothy","family":"Matthews","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King\u2019s College London, London, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Candice L.","family":"Odgers","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina"},{"name":"Department of Psychological Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Richie","family":"Poulton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sandhya","family":"Ramrakha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Terrie E.","family":"Moffitt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King\u2019s College London, London, United Kingdom"},{"name":"Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina"},{"name":"PROMENTA, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway"},{"name":"Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrea","family":"Danese","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King\u2019s College London, London, United Kingdom"},{"name":"Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, King\u2019s College London, London, United Kingdom"},{"name":"National and Specialist Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services Trauma, Anxiety, and Depression Clinic, South London and Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"10","reference":[{"issue":"4","key":"poi200089r1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"245","DOI":"10.1016\/S0749-3797(98)00017-8","article-title":"Relationship of childhood abuse and household dysfunction to many of the leading causes of death in adults: the Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) Study.","volume":"14","author":"Felitti","year":"1998","journal-title":"Am J Prev Med"},{"issue":"10","key":"poi200089r2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1103","DOI":"10.1111\/jcpp.12621","article-title":"Lest we forget: comparing retrospective and prospective assessments of adverse childhood experiences in the prediction of adult health.","volume":"57","author":"Reuben","year":"2016","journal-title":"J Child Psychol Psychiatry"},{"issue":"8","key":"poi200089r3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e356","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-2667(17)30118-4","article-title":"The effect of multiple adverse childhood experiences on health: a systematic review and meta-analysis.","volume":"2","author":"Hughes","year":"2017","journal-title":"Lancet Public Health"},{"issue":"10","key":"poi200089r4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e517","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-2667(19)30145-8","article-title":"Life course health consequences and associated annual costs of adverse childhood experiences across Europe and North America: a systematic review and meta-analysis.","volume":"4","author":"Bellis","year":"2019","journal-title":"Lancet Public Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"poi200089r5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e224","DOI":"10.1542\/peds.2011-2662","article-title":"Early childhood adversity, toxic stress, and the role of the pediatrician: translating developmental science into lifelong health.","volume":"129","author":"Garner","year":"2012","journal-title":"Pediatrics"},{"issue":"1","key":"poi200089r6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"25","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2019.18499","article-title":"Identifying and preventing adverse childhood experiences: implications for clinical practice.","volume":"323","author":"Jones","year":"2020","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"3","key":"poi200089r14","first-page":"10","article-title":"Screening for adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) in an integrated pediatric care model.","volume":"36","author":"Purewal","year":"2016","journal-title":"Zero to Three"},{"issue":"6477","key":"poi200089r15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"498","DOI":"10.1126\/science.367.6477.498","article-title":"Screen for childhood trauma triggers debate.","volume":"367","author":"Underwood","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"poi200089r16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"174","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chiabu.2017.07.016","article-title":"Screening for adverse childhood experiences (ACEs): cautions and suggestions.","volume":"85","author":"Finkelhor","year":"2018","journal-title":"Child Abuse Negl"},{"issue":"1","key":"poi200089r17","first-page":"1","article-title":"Trauma-informed care as a universal precaution: beyond the Adverse Childhood Experiences questionnaire.","volume":"174","author":"Racine","year":"2019","journal-title":"JAMA Pediatr"},{"issue":"2","key":"poi200089r18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"293","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amepre.2020.01.009","article-title":"Inside the Adverse Childhood Experience score: strengths, limitations, and misapplications.","volume":"59","author":"Anda","year":"2020","journal-title":"Am J Prev Med"},{"issue":"2","key":"poi200089r19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"116","DOI":"10.1111\/jcpp.v61.2","article-title":"Practitioner review: twenty years of research with Adverse Childhood Experience scores\u2014advantages, disadvantages and applications to practice.","volume":"61","author":"Lacey","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Child Psychol Psychiatry"},{"issue":"1","key":"poi200089r20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"767","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2458-13-767","article-title":"Childhood adversity as a risk for cancer: findings from the 1958 British birth cohort study.","volume":"13","author":"Kelly-Irving","year":"2013","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"poi200089r21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"582","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bbi.2018.02.007","article-title":"Adverse childhood experiences and adult inflammation: findings from the 1958 British birth cohort.","volume":"69","author":"Chen","year":"2018","journal-title":"Brain Behav Immun"},{"key":"poi200089r22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"318","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bbi.2019.12.019","article-title":"The long-term association of adverse childhood experiences with C-reactive protein and hair cortisol: cumulative risk versus dimensions of adversity.","volume":"87","author":"Iob","year":"2020","journal-title":"Brain Behav Immun"},{"key":"poi200089r23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"33","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.clinpsy.4.022007.141207","article-title":"Modern approaches to conceptualizing and measuring human life stress.","volume":"4","author":"Monroe","year":"2008","journal-title":"Annu Rev Clin Psychol"},{"issue":"7","key":"poi200089r24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"715","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chiabu.2004.03.009","article-title":"The case for prospective longitudinal studies in child maltreatment research: commentary on Dube, Williamson, Thompson, Felitti, and Anda (2004).","volume":"28","author":"Widom","year":"2004","journal-title":"Child Abuse Negl"},{"issue":"3","key":"poi200089r25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"236","DOI":"10.1111\/jcpp.v61.3","article-title":"Annual research review: rethinking childhood trauma\u2014new research directions for measurement, study design and analytical strategies.","volume":"61","author":"Danese","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Child Psychol Psychiatry"},{"issue":"6","key":"poi200089r26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"584","DOI":"10.1001\/jamapsychiatry.2019.0097","article-title":"Agreement between prospective and retrospective measures of childhood maltreatment: a systematic review and meta-analysis.","volume":"76","author":"Baldwin","year":"2019","journal-title":"JAMA Psychiatry"},{"key":"poi200089r27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jpsychires.2017.09.020","article-title":"Measuring childhood maltreatment to predict early-adult psychopathology: comparison of prospective informant-reports and retrospective self-reports.","volume":"96","author":"Newbury","year":"2018","journal-title":"J Psychiatr Res"},{"issue":"6","key":"poi200089r31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"727","DOI":"10.1111\/jcpp.2002.43.issue-6","article-title":"Teen-aged mothers in contemporary Britain.","volume":"43","author":"Moffitt","year":"2002","journal-title":"J Child Psychol Psychiatry"},{"issue":"1","key":"poi200089r32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"24","DOI":"10.1007\/s40865-017-0068-3","article-title":"The developmental nature of the victim-offender overlap.","volume":"4","author":"Beckley","year":"2018","journal-title":"J Dev Life Course Criminol"},{"issue":"5","key":"poi200089r33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"679","DOI":"10.1007\/s00127-015-1048-8","article-title":"The Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study: overview of the first 40 years, with an eye to the future.","volume":"50","author":"Poulton","year":"2015","journal-title":"Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol"},{"issue":"7","key":"poi200089r35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"738","DOI":"10.1001\/archgenpsychiatry.2009.55","article-title":"Predictive value of family history on severity of illness: the case for depression, anxiety, alcohol dependence, and drug dependence.","volume":"66","author":"Milne","year":"2009","journal-title":"Arch Gen Psychiatry"},{"issue":"1","key":"poi200089r36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"39","DOI":"10.1093\/biostatistics\/kxh016","article-title":"Quasi-likelihood estimation for relative risk regression models.","volume":"6","author":"Carter","year":"2005","journal-title":"Biostatistics"},{"issue":"2","key":"poi200089r37","first-page":"111","article-title":"Evidence based emergency medicine, part 5: receiver operating curve and area under the curve.","volume":"4","author":"Safari","year":"2016","journal-title":"Emerg (Tehran)"},{"issue":"3","key":"poi200089r38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"318","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwu140","article-title":"Correcting for optimistic prediction in small data sets.","volume":"180","author":"Smith","year":"2014","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"issue":"106","key":"poi200089r39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"106","DOI":"10.12688\/wellcomeopenres","article-title":"Adverse childhood experiences in the children of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC).","volume":"3","author":"Houtepen","year":"2018","journal-title":"Wellcome Open Res"},{"issue":"11","key":"poi200089r40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1037","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2019.10915","article-title":"Screening for social determinants of health: the known and unknown.","volume":"322","author":"Davidson","year":"2019","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"5","key":"poi200089r41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2019.4003","article-title":"Reported levels of upset in youth after routine trauma screening at mental health clinics.","volume":"2","author":"Skar","year":"2019","journal-title":"JAMA Netw Open"},{"key":"poi200089r43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"90","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jad.2019.10.034","article-title":"Developing an individualized risk calculator for psychopathology among young people victimized during childhood: a population-representative cohort study.","volume":"262","author":"Meehan","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Affect Disord"},{"key":"poi200089r10","volume-title":"Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey ACE Data, 2009-2014","author":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","year":"2015"},{"key":"poi200089r11","volume-title":"Routine Enquiry About Adversity in Childhood.","author":"Larkin","year":"2016"},{"key":"poi200089r29","volume-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing.","year":"2019"},{"key":"poi200089r34","volume-title":"CTQ: Childhood Trauma Questionnaire: A Retrospective Self-report","author":"Bernstein","year":"1998"},{"key":"poi200089r7","unstructured":"Mecklenburg County, North Carolina. Fiscal year 2020 recommended budget. Accessed April 15, 2020. https:\/\/www.mecknc.gov\/CountyManagersOffice\/OMB\/Documents\/FY2020-Recommended-Budget.pdf"},{"key":"poi200089r8","unstructured":"Center for Youth Wellness. Applying universal ACEs screening in the pediatric clinic. Accessed April 15, 2020. https:\/\/centerforyouthwellness.org\/advancing-clinical-practice\/"},{"key":"poi200089r9","unstructured":"Feder Ostrov B. 5 things to know as California starts screening children for toxic stress. US News & World Report. January 8, 2020. Accessed April 15, 2020. https:\/\/www.usnews.com\/news\/best-states\/articles\/2020-01-08\/5-things-to-know-as-california-starts-screening-children-for-toxic-stress"},{"key":"poi200089r12","unstructured":"Hardcastle? KA, Bellis? MA. Asking about adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) in health visiting: findings from a pilot study. Published January 2019. Accessed April 15, 2020. https:\/\/rb.gy\/l3vc9b"},{"key":"poi200089r13","unstructured":"Public Health Scotland. Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs). Updated May 31, 2019. Accessed April 15, 2020. http:\/\/www.healthscotland.scot\/population-groups\/children\/adverse-childhood-experiences-aces\/should-services-ask-about-aces?"},{"key":"poi200089r28","unstructured":"Dunedin & E-Risk research projects. Accessed December 7, 2020. https:\/\/sites.google.com\/site\/moffittcaspiprojects\/home\/approved_2018\/baldwinj_2018a"},{"key":"poi200089r30","unstructured":"Center for Open Science. Population vs individual prediction of poor health from ACEs screening. Published April 25, 2020. Accessed December 10, 2020. https:\/\/osf.io\/6em2k\/"},{"key":"poi200089r42","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Preventing adverse childhood experiences (ACEs): leveraging the best available evidence. Published 2019. Accessed July 17, 2020. https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/violenceprevention\/pdf\/preventingACES.pdf"}],"container-title":["JAMA Pediatrics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jamapediatrics\/articlepdf\/2775420\/jamapediatrics_baldwin_2021_oi_200089_1616606190.52413.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,5]],"date-time":"2021-04-05T11:06:36Z","timestamp":1617620796000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jamapediatrics\/fullarticle\/2775420"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,1]]},"references-count":43,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1001\/jamapediatrics.2020.5602","relation":{"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.3410\/f.739427740.793587596","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["2168-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2168-6203","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,1]]}}}