{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,24]],"date-time":"2026-10-24T19:41:43Z","timestamp":1792870903468,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":64,"publisher":"American Medical Association (AMA)","issue":"9","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JAMA Surg"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"ab-soi230040-4\"><jats:title>Importance<\/jats:title><jats:p>Breast cancer\u2013related lymphedema (BCRL) is a common complication of axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) but can also develop after sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB). Several models have been developed to predict the risk of disease development before and after surgery; however, these models have shortcomings that include the omission of race, inclusion of variables that are not readily available to patients, low sensitivity or specificity, and lack of risk assessment for patients treated with SLNB.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"ab-soi230040-5\"><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>To create simple and accurate prediction models for BCRL that can be used to estimate preoperative or postoperative risk.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"ab-soi230040-6\"><jats:title>Design, Setting, and Participants<\/jats:title><jats:p>In this prognostic study, women with breast cancer who underwent ALND or SLNB from 1999 to 2020 at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center and the Mayo Clinic were included. Data were analyzed from September to December 2022.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"ab-soi230040-7\"><jats:title>Main Outcomes and Measures<\/jats:title><jats:p>Diagnosis of lymphedema based on measurements. Two predictive models were formulated via logistic regression: a preoperative model (model 1) and a postoperative model (model 2). Model 1 was externally validated using a cohort of 34\u202f438 patients with an <jats:italic>International Classification of Diseases<\/jats:italic> diagnosis of breast cancer.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"ab-soi230040-8\"><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Of 1882 included patients, all were female, and the mean (SD) age was 55.6 (12.2) years; 80 patients (4.3%) were Asian, 190 (10.1%) were Black, 1558 (82.8%) were White, and 54 (2.9%) were another race (including American Indian and Alaska Native, other race, patient refused to disclose, or unknown). A total of 218 patients (11.6%) were diagnosed with BCRL at a mean (SD) follow-up of 3.9 (1.8) years. The BCRL rate was significantly higher among Black women (42 of 190 [22.1%]) compared with all other races (Asian, 10 of 80 [12.5%]; White, 158 of 1558 [10.1%]; other race, 8 of 54 [14.8%]; <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\u2009&amp;amp;lt;\u2009.001). Model 1 included age, weight, height, race, ALND\/SLNB status, any radiation therapy, and any chemotherapy. Model 2 included age, weight, race, ALND\/SLNB status, any chemotherapy, and patient-reported arm swelling. Accuracy was 73.0% for model 1 (sensitivity, 76.6%; specificity, 72.5%; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.78; 95% CI, 0.75-0.81) at a cutoff of 0.18, and accuracy was 81.1% for model 2 (sensitivity, 78.0%; specificity, 81.5%; AUC, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.83-0.88) at a cutoff of 0.10. Both models demonstrated high AUCs on external (model 1: 0.75; 95% CI, 0.74-0.76) or internal (model 2: 0.82; 95% CI, 0.79-0.85) validation.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"ab-soi230040-9\"><jats:title>Conclusions and Relevance<\/jats:title><jats:p>In this study, preoperative and postoperative prediction models for BCRL were highly accurate and clinically relevant tools comprised of accessible inputs and underscored the effects of racial differences on BCRL risk. The preoperative model identified high-risk patients who require close monitoring or preventative measures. The postoperative model can be used for screening of high-risk patients, thus decreasing the need for frequent clinic visits and arm volume measurements.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1001\/jamasurg.2023.2414","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,12]],"date-time":"2023-07-12T15:03:13Z","timestamp":1689174193000},"page":"954","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":26,"title":["Feasibility and Clinical Utility of Prediction Models for Breast Cancer\u2013Related Lymphedema Incorporating Racial Differences in Disease Incidence"],"prefix":"10.1001","volume":"158","author":[{"given":"Danielle H.","family":"Rochlin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrea V.","family":"Barrio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Breast Service, Department of Surgery, 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Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michelle R.","family":"Coriddi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Leslie A.","family":"McGrath","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Emily A.","family":"Bloomfield","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New 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