{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,22]],"date-time":"2026-06-22T21:49:43Z","timestamp":1782164983484,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"American Medical Association (AMA)","issue":"8","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JAMA Surg"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"ab-soi240032-4\"><jats:title>Importance<\/jats:title><jats:p>Black and other racially minoritized groups are overrepresented among those who experience firearm homicide. There has been a stark increase in incarcerated populations in the US since the 1980s, largely due to differential drug sentencing, of which racially minoritized individuals are also overrepresented; social disorganization theory postulates that community and family instability resulting from incarceration can further worsen crime.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"ab-soi240032-5\"><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>To understand the association of race-specific incarceration with race-specific firearm violence rates in Chicago, Illinois, through the lens of social vulnerability and family instability.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"ab-soi240032-6\"><jats:title>Design, Setting, and Participants<\/jats:title><jats:p>This cross-sectional study with a retrospective cohort design utilized homicide data for the city of Chicago from January 1, 2001, to August 31, 2019. Demographic data at the census block level was obtained from the 2010 decennial census. Incarceration rates were obtained by race and ethnicity at the census tract level from the Opportunity Atlas. Data analysis occurred from January to June 2023.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"ab-soi240032-7\"><jats:title>Exposure<\/jats:title><jats:p>Race-specific incarceration rates were the primary exposures of interest. The Social Vulnerability Index and single-parent households were studied as mediators.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"ab-soi240032-8\"><jats:title>Main Outcomes and Measures<\/jats:title><jats:p>Race-specific firearm homicide rates were the outcomes of interest. Structural equation modeling was used to understand the mediating effect of social vulnerability and single-parent households on the association of incarceration with firearm homicides.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"ab-soi240032-9\"><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>A total of 46\u202f312 census blocks were evaluated. Black-specific incarceration rates were found to be associated with Black-specific firearm homicides (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.70; 95% CI, 1.50-1.94), but there was no association for Hispanic incarceration rates (IRR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.75-1.28) or White incarceration rates (IRR, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.39-1.16). In the association of Black incarceration rates with Black firearm homicide rates, social vulnerability did not mediate the interaction, but the percentage of single-parent households mediated 23% of the interaction.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"ab-soi240032-10\"><jats:title>Conclusions and Relevance<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study found that higher rates of incarceration were associated with increased rates of firearm homicides among Black communities alone; this association was found to be mediated partially through the density of single-parent households in these areas, suggesting that social disorganization resulting from mass incarceration may perpetuate firearm homicides. Targeted policies addressing mass incarceration and the disparities therein may be a means of reducing urban firearm homicides.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1001\/jamasurg.2024.1596","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,5]],"date-time":"2024-06-05T15:01:11Z","timestamp":1717599671000},"page":"910","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["The Carceral State, Social Disorganization, and Firearm Homicides in Chicago"],"prefix":"10.1001","volume":"159","author":[{"given":"Michael","family":"Poulson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery, Boston Medical Center, Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kian","family":"Riley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery, Boston Medical Center, Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maha","family":"Haqqani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery, Boston Medical Center, Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kaye-Alese","family":"Green","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery, Boston Medical Center, Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kelly","family":"Kenzik","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery, Boston Medical Center, Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dane","family":"Scantling","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery, Boston Medical Center, Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"10","reference":[{"issue":"11","key":"soi240032r2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2022.44221","article-title":"Trends and disparities in firearm fatalities in the United States, 1990-2021.","volume":"5","author":"Rees","year":"2022","journal-title":"JAMA Netw Open"},{"issue":"19","key":"soi240032r3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"656","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm7119e1","article-title":"Vital Signs: Changes in Firearm Homicide and Suicide Rates - United States, 2019-2020.","volume":"71","author":"Kegler","year":"2022","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep"},{"key":"soi240032r4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.lana.2021.100052","article-title":"Historic redlining, structural racism, and firearm violence: a structural equation modeling approach.","volume":"3","author":"Poulson","year":"2021","journal-title":"Lancet Reg Health Am"},{"issue":"4","key":"soi240032r5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"421","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jnma.2023.06.003","article-title":"The effect of historic redlining on firearm violence.","volume":"115","author":"Poulson","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Natl Med Assoc"},{"issue":"2","key":"soi240032r6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"290","DOI":"10.1177\/0003122416635667","article-title":"Explaining the gaps in White, Black, and Hispanic Violence since 1990: accounting for immigration, incarceration, and inequality.","volume":"81","author":"Light","year":"2016","journal-title":"Am Sociol Rev"},{"issue":"6","key":"soi240032r8","first-page":"129","article-title":"A wealth of inequalities: Mass incarceration, employment, and racial disparities in U.S. Household wealth, 1996 to 2011.","volume":"2","author":"Sykes","year":"2016","journal-title":"The Russel Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences"},{"issue":"7","key":"soi240032r10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3384","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph18073384","article-title":"Parental incarceration, child adversity, and child health: a strategic comparison approach.","volume":"18","author":"Jackson","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"issue":"3","key":"soi240032r11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/soc4.v12.3","article-title":"Health and justice: framing incarceration as a social determinant of health for Black men in the United States.","volume":"12","author":"Nowotny","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sociol Compass"},{"issue":"2","key":"soi240032r12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"265","DOI":"10.1353\/dem.0.0052","article-title":"Parental imprisonment, the prison boom, and the concentration of childhood disadvantage.","volume":"46","author":"Wildeman","year":"2009","journal-title":"Demography"},{"issue":"4","key":"soi240032r13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"648","DOI":"10.1177\/0003122412448648","article-title":"Racial discrimination, ethnic-racial socialization, and crime: a micro-sociological model of risk and resilience.","volume":"77","author":"Burt","year":"2012","journal-title":"Am Sociol Rev"},{"issue":"3","key":"soi240032r14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"731","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0020-6598.2004.00285.x","article-title":"Racial Beliefs, Location, and the Causes of Crime.","volume":"45","author":"Verdier","year":"2004","journal-title":"Int Econ Rev"},{"issue":"1","key":"soi240032r15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.1177\/000276483027001006","article-title":"Selective incapacitation as a means of crime control.","volume":"27","author":"Blumstein","year":"1983","journal-title":"Am Behav Sci"},{"issue":"3","key":"soi240032r16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"441","DOI":"10.1111\/crim.1998.36.issue-3","article-title":"Incarceration, social capital and crime: implications for social disorganization theory.","volume":"36","author":"Rose","year":"1998","journal-title":"Criminology"},{"issue":"2","key":"soi240032r24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"210","DOI":"10.5127\/jep.010410","article-title":"An SEM perspective on evaluating mediation: what every clinical researcher needs to know.","volume":"2","author":"Woody","year":"2011","journal-title":"J Exp Psychopathol"},{"issue":"6","key":"soi240032r25","first-page":"390","article-title":"Introduction to mediation analysis with structural equation modeling.","volume":"25","author":"Gunzler","year":"2013","journal-title":"Shanghai Arch Psychiatry"},{"key":"soi240032r28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"253","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ssresearch.2016.09.017","article-title":"Single-parent households and mortality among children and youth.","volume":"63","author":"Amato","year":"2017","journal-title":"Soc Sci Res"},{"issue":"1","key":"soi240032r29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"224","DOI":"10.1177\/00027162231173324","article-title":"Social and structural determinants of community firearm violence and community trauma.","volume":"704","author":"Buggs","year":"2022","journal-title":"Ann Am Acad Pol Soc Sci"},{"key":"soi240032r23","volume-title":"ArcMap Software","author":"ESRI","year":"2020"},{"key":"soi240032r27","first-page":"245","volume-title":"Deterrence","author":"Liedka","year":"2014"},{"key":"soi240032r1","unstructured":"Gramlich? 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