{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,28]],"date-time":"2026-08-28T23:42:09Z","timestamp":1787960529765,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":18,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,15]],"date-time":"2026-01-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1768435200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,15]],"date-time":"2026-01-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1768435200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ther Apher Dial"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Chronic kidney disease is a growing public health problem worldwide, and the number of patients requiring renal replacement therapy is steadily increasing. T\u00fcrkiye has experienced a similar rise in both the incidence and prevalence of renal replacement therapy over the past decades; however, national\u2010level projections of future renal replacement therapy demand are lacking.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aims<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This study aimed to forecast the future burden of renal replacement therapy in T\u00fcrkiye by modeling historical incidence and prevalence trends using national registry data and demographic projections.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>National renal replacement therapy registry data from 2012 to 2024 were analyzed together with demographic projections from the Turkish Statistical Institute extending to 2035. Four models were constructed separately for incidence and prevalence. Model performance was compared using the coefficient of determination, root mean square error, and Akaike information criterion. Leave\u2010one\u2010out cross\u2010validation was used to assess model robustness. The modeling was further validated on data from Japan and the United Kingdom.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>All models indicated a consistent upward trend in renal replacement therapy incidence in T\u00fcrkiye over the next decade. By 2035, the prevalence of renal replacement therapy in T\u00fcrkiye is projected to reach approximately 1150\u20131250 per million population. The models demonstrated strong goodness of fit, and cross\u2010validation supported good internal consistency, although the machine\u2010learning model showed some overfitting for prevalence.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The national demand for renal replacement therapy in T\u00fcrkiye is projected to continue increasing through 2035. Incorporating predictive modeling into national registry surveillance can help guide proactive capacity planning and fair resource distribution for dialysis and transplantation services. At the same time, public health strategies aimed at preventing and slowing the progression of chronic kidney disease remain essential to mitigate the growing burden of end\u2010stage renal disease.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/1744-9987.70118","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,16]],"date-time":"2026-01-16T05:51:27Z","timestamp":1768542687000},"page":"254-260","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Predicting the Future Burden of Renal Replacement Therapy in T\u00fcrkiye Using National Registry Data and Comparative Modeling Approaches"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"30","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-8119-3893","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Arzu","family":"Akg\u00fcl","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Nephrology Ankara Etlik City Hospital  Ankara T\u00fcrkiye"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4654-9002","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Neriman S\u0131la","family":"Ko\u00e7","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Nephrology Ankara Etlik City Hospital  Ankara T\u00fcrkiye"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0834-900X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Berrak It\u0131r","family":"Ayl\u0131","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Westminster  London UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.kint.2019.07.012"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140\u20106736(16)31012\u20101"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140\u20106736(18)31694\u20105"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140\u20106736(14)61601\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214\u2010109X(25)00198\u20106"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","unstructured":"Turkish Ministry of Health and Turkish Society of Nephrology \u201cNational Nephrology Dialysis and Transplantation Registry Report of Turkey 2024 \u201d2025 https:\/\/nefroloji.org.tr\/tr\/tnd\u2010kayit\u2010raporlari."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2018.00138"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","unstructured":"Turkish Statistical Institute (T\u00dc\u0130K) \u201cPopulation Projections 2023\u20132100 Bulletin \u201d2023 https:\/\/data.tuik.gov.tr\/Bulten\/Index?p=Nufus\u2010Projeksiyonlari\u20102023\u20102100\u201053699."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","unstructured":"UK Renal Registry \u201cUK Renal Registry 27th Annual Report \u201d2025 Bristol UK https:\/\/ukkidney.org\/audit\u2010research\/annual\u2010report."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","unstructured":"\u201cOffice for National Statistics \u201daccessed December 14 2025 https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s41100\u2010025\u201000646\u20103"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s41100\u2010023\u201000478\u2010z"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","unstructured":"e\u2010Stat \u201cPortal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e\u2010Stat) \u201daccessed December 14 2025 Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan https:\/\/www.e\u2010stat.go.jp\/."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ckj\/sfae405"},{"issue":"8","key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","first-page":"7S","article-title":"Diabetes Mellitus and Hypertension: Key Risk Factors for Kidney Disease","volume":"94","author":"Lea J. 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