{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,24]],"date-time":"2026-01-24T15:19:17Z","timestamp":1769267957827,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)","issue":"14","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,29]],"date-time":"2014-07-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1406592000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":1,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Geophysical Research Letters"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,28]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240 h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from the model climate. Compared with ERA\u2010Interim, a reanalysis, the ensemble yields higher return estimates for both wind speed and significant wave height. Confidence intervals are much tighter due to the large size of the data set. The period (9 years) is short enough to be considered stationary even with climate change. Furthermore, the ensemble is large enough for nonparametric 100 year return estimates to be made from order statistics. These direct return estimates compare well with extreme value estimates outside areas with tropical cyclones. Like any method employing modeled fields, it is sensitive to tail biases in the numerical model, but we find that the biases are moderate outside areas with tropical cyclones.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/2014gl060997","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,19]],"date-time":"2014-07-19T05:16:29Z","timestamp":1405746989000},"page":"5122-5131","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":49,"title":["Wind and wave extremes over the world oceans from very large ensembles"],"prefix":"10.1029","volume":"41","author":[{"given":"\u00d8yvind","family":"Breivik","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"European Centre for Medium\u2010Range Weather Forecasts  Reading UK"}]},{"given":"Ole Johan","family":"Aarnes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Norwegian Meteorological Institute  Bergen Norway"}]},{"given":"Saleh","family":"Abdalla","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"European Centre for Medium\u2010Range Weather Forecasts  Reading UK"}]},{"given":"Jean\u2010Raymond","family":"Bidlot","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"European Centre for Medium\u2010Range Weather Forecasts  Reading UK"}]},{"given":"Peter A.E.M.","family":"Janssen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"European Centre for Medium\u2010Range Weather Forecasts  Reading UK"}]}],"member":"13","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI\u2010D\u201011\u201000132.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520\u20100434(2002)017<0287:IOTPOO>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmarsys.2009.01.025"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI\u2010D\u201012\u201000738.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.75"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI\u20103312.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4471-3675-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.776"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600\u20100870.2008.00312.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.828"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature07234"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.1895"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate1791"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_15_1","article-title":"ERA\u201020CM: A twentieth century atmospheric model ensemble","author":"Hersbach H.","year":"2013","journal-title":"ERA Report Series 16"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2009JC005802"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2011GL047302"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511525018"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520\u20100477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI3320.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_21_1","article-title":"Estimation of extreme wind wave heights","author":"Lopatoukhin L.","year":"2000","journal-title":"JCOMM Tech. Rep. No 9"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR\u2010D\u201012\u201000318.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR\u2010D\u201013\u201000228.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_24_1","article-title":"The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (System 4)","author":"Molteni F.","year":"2011","journal-title":"ECMWF Tech. Memorandum 656"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2151\/jmsj.85.369"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2151\/jmsj.84.259"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2010JC006402"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI\u2010D\u201011\u201000015.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI\u2010D\u201012\u201000823.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382\u2010010\u20100947\u20103"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1256\/qj.04.176"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2010JCLI3680.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.322"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520\u20100442(2001)014<2204:COEWHI>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520\u20100442(2002)015<1020:TOAWEA>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382\u2010005\u20100080\u2010x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2012GL053381"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10236\u2010006\u20100094\u2010x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_39_1","volume-title":"Guide to Wave Analysis and Forecasting,","author":"World Meteorological Organization","year":"1998"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2011JC007753"}],"container-title":["Geophysical Research Letters"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2F2014GL060997","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/2014GL060997","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,2]],"date-time":"2023-09-02T08:13:02Z","timestamp":1693642382000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/2014GL060997"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,28]]},"references-count":39,"journal-issue":{"issue":"14","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,28]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/2014GL060997"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/2014gl060997","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0094-8276","1944-8007"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0094-8276","type":"print"},{"value":"1944-8007","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,28]]}}}