{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,11]],"date-time":"2026-09-11T13:04:27Z","timestamp":1789131867315,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2012,4,23]],"date-time":"2012-04-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1335139200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Arthritis Care &amp; Research"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>To determine the prognostic significance of data collected early after starting certolizumab pegol (CZP) to predict low disease activity (LDA) at week 52.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Data from 703 CZP\u2010treated patients in the Rheumatoid Arthritis Prevention of Structural Damage 1 (RAPID 1) trial through week 12 were used as variables to predict LDA (Disease Activity Score in 28 joints\u2013erythrocyte sedimentation rate \u22643.2) at week 52. We identified variables, developed prediction models using classification trees, and tested performance using training and testing data sets. Additional prediction models were constructed using the Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) and an alternate outcome definition (composite of LDA or American College of Rheumatology criteria for 50% improvement [ACR50]).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Using week 6 and 12 data and across several different prediction models, response (LDA) and nonresponse at 1 year were predicted with relatively high accuracy (70\u201390%) for most patients. The best performing model predicting nonresponse by 12 weeks was 90% accurate and applied to 46% of the population. Model accuracy for predicted responders (30% of the RAPID 1 population) was 74%. The area under the receiver operating curve was 0.76. Depending on the desired certainty of prediction at 12 weeks, \u223c12\u201325% of patients required &gt;12 weeks of treatment to be accurately classified. CDAI\u2010based models and those evaluating the composite outcome (LDA or ACR50) achieved comparable accuracy.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>We could accurately predict within 12 weeks of starting CZP whether most established rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients with high baseline disease activity would likely achieve\/not achieve LDA at 1 year. Decision trees may be useful to guide prospective management for RA patients treated with CZP and other biologics.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/acr.21600","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2012,1,9]],"date-time":"2012-01-09T13:26:51Z","timestamp":1326115611000},"page":"658-667","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":34,"title":["Predicting future response to certolizumab pegol in rheumatoid arthritis patients: Features at 12 weeks associated with low disease activity at 1 year"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"64","author":[{"given":"Jeffrey R.","family":"Curtis","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kristel","family":"Luijtens","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Arthur","family":"Kavanaugh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2012,4,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2008.099010"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM199901283400401"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM200011303432201"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(04)15640-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(09)60506-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/rheumatology\/kem091"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_2","first-page":"37","article-title":"A multicenter, double\u2010blind, randomized, placebo controlled trial of infliximab combined with low dose methotrexate in Japanese patients with rheumatoid arthritis","volume":"33","author":"Abe T","year":"2006","journal-title":"J Rheumatol"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1586\/eci.10.67"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2008.099291"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_2","first-page":"990","article-title":"Rapid improvement in the signs and symptoms of rheumatoid arthritis following certolizumab pegol treatment predicts better long\u2010term outcomes: post\u2010hoc analysis of a randomized controlled trial","volume":"38","author":"Keystone E","year":"2011","journal-title":"Arthritis Res Ther"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.22640"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2008.088237"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.11168"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.62.6.526"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/rheumatology\/kel175"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_2","first-page":"S337","article-title":"What do rheumatologists do in their practices?","volume":"41","author":"Flowers N","year":"1998","journal-title":"Arthritis Rheum"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2009.108472"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jelectrocard.2008.01.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cca.2008.03.022"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2407-8-66"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1098-3015(10)64620-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.30129"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.23964"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.1780380602"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2009.126532"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_27_2","volume-title":"Classification and regression trees","author":"Breiman L","year":"1984"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_28_2","volume-title":"CART: tree\u2010structured non\u2010parametric data analysis","author":"Steinberg D","year":"1995"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2011.153551"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_30_2","first-page":"1712","article-title":"Evaluation and documentation of rheumatoid arthritis disease status in the clinic: which variables best predict change in therapy","volume":"28","author":"Wolfe F","year":"2001","journal-title":"J Rheumatol"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/acr.20643"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/rheumatology\/keh464"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2009.123885"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.22943"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2008.092577"}],"container-title":["Arthritis Care &amp; 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