{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,3]],"date-time":"2026-10-03T03:03:15Z","timestamp":1790996595333,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":49,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,12,27]],"date-time":"2019-12-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1577404800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000341","name":"Arthritis Research UK","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["21595"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["21595"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000341","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["acrjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Arthritis Care &amp;amp; Research"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>To develop and internally validate risk models and a clinical risk score tool to predict incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">RKOA<\/jats:styled-content>) in middle\u2010aged women.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>We analyzed 649 women in the Chingford 1,000 Women study. The outcome was incident <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">RKOA<\/jats:styled-content>, defined as Kellgren\/Lawrence grade 0\u20131 at baseline and \u22652 at year 5. We estimated predictors\u2019 effects on the outcome using logistic regression models. Two models were generated. The clinical model considered patient characteristics, medication, biomarkers, and knee symptoms. The radiographic model considered the same factors, plus radiographic factors (e.g., angle between the acetabular roof and the ilium's vertical cortex [hip \u03b1\u2010angle]). The models were internally validated. Model performance was assessed using calibration and discrimination (area under the receiver characteristic curve [<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">AUC<\/jats:styled-content>]).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>The clinical model contained age, quadriceps circumference, and a cartilage degradation marker (C\u2010terminal telopeptide of type <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">II<\/jats:styled-content> collagen) as predictors (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">AUC<\/jats:styled-content> = 0.692). The radiographic model contained older age, greater quadriceps circumference, knee pain, knee baseline Kellgren\/Lawrence grade 1 (versus 0), greater hip \u03b1\u2010angle, greater spinal bone mineral density, and contralateral <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">RKOA<\/jats:styled-content> at baseline as predictors (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">AUC<\/jats:styled-content> = 0.797). Calibration tests showed good agreement between the observed and predicted incident <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">RKOA<\/jats:styled-content>. A clinical risk score tool was developed from the clinical model.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>Two models predicting incident <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">RKOA<\/jats:styled-content> within 4 years were developed, including radiographic variables that improved model performance. First\u2010time predictor hip \u03b1\u2010angle and contralateral <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">RKOA<\/jats:styled-content> suggest <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">OA<\/jats:styled-content> origins beyond the knee. The clinical tool has the potential to help physicians identify patients at risk of <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">RKOA<\/jats:styled-content> in routine practice, but the tool should be externally validated.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/acr.23932","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,25]],"date-time":"2019-05-25T06:48:45Z","timestamp":1558766925000},"page":"88-97","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Predicting Incident Radiographic Knee Osteoarthritis in Middle\u2010Aged Women Within Four Years: The Importance of Knee\u2010Level Prognostic Factors"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"72","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7073-3611","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cesar","family":"Garriga","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Oxford  Oxford UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maria 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Southampton General Hospital  Southampton UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nigel K.","family":"Arden","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Oxford  Oxford UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,12,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/annrheumdis-2013-204763"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","volume-title":"14th annual report of the UK NJR","author":"National Joint 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