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Yet, whether prior information shapes confidence and the neural mechanisms mediating such influence, remain to be determined. Here, two complementary studies identify parietal alpha modulation as an oscillatory mechanism linking prior expectations to selective shifts in metacognitive bias. In Study 1, 75 participants performed a visual detection task with symbolic cues signaling target probability. Within the Type II Signal Detection Theory framework, probabilistic cues induce a congruence\u2010dependent metacognitive bias: confidence increases when perceptual responses align with expectations and decreases when they diverge. Importantly, metacognitive sensitivity is unaffected. Critically, electroencephalography shows that cue\u2010induced right\u2010parietal alpha modulation predicts interindividual differences in the magnitude of this bias. In Study 2 (N = 88), right\u2010parietal continuous Theta\u2010Burst Stimulation (cTBS) disrupts cue\u2010induced alpha modulation, relative to sham stimulation. This oscillatory change, in turn, drives the selective reduction in metacognitive bias. Together, these findings demonstrate that parietal alpha modulation causally and selectively shapes metacognitive bias, revealing an oscillatory mechanism for predictive metacognition.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/advs.202519417","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,23]],"date-time":"2026-05-23T09:15:12Z","timestamp":1779527712000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Prior Expectations Bias Confidence Judgments Through Parietal Alpha\u2010Band Modulation"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"13","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4977-3173","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Luca","family":"Tarasi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro Studi e Ricerche in Neuroscienze Cognitive Dipartimento di Psicologia \u201cRenzo Canestrari\u201d, Campus di Cesena, Alma Mater Studiorum \u2013 Universit\u00e0 di Bologna  Cesena 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Canestrari\u201d, Campus di Cesena, Alma Mater Studiorum \u2013 Universit\u00e0 di Bologna  Cesena Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vincenzo","family":"Romei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro Studi e Ricerche in Neuroscienze Cognitive Dipartimento di Psicologia \u201cRenzo Canestrari\u201d, Campus di Cesena, Alma Mater Studiorum \u2013 Universit\u00e0 di Bologna  Cesena Italy"},{"name":"Universidad Antonio de Nebrija  Madrid 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