{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,29]],"date-time":"2026-07-29T23:43:01Z","timestamp":1785368581493,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":31,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,11,2]],"date-time":"2018-11-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1541116800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100009619","name":"Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100009619","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Annals of Gastroent Surgery"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Aim<\/jats:title><jats:p>A comprehensive description of morbidity and mortality risk factors for post liver transplant has not been available to date. In this study, we established real\u2010time risk models of postoperative morbidities and mortality in liver transplant recipients using two Japanese nationwide databases.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Data from two Japanese nationwide databases were combined and used for this study. We developed real\u2010time prognostic models for morbidity and mortality from a derivation cohort (n\u00a0=\u00a01472) and validated the findings with an independent cohort (n\u00a0=\u00a0395). Preoperative variables (C1), preoperative and intraoperative variables (C2), and all variables including postoperative morbidities within 30\u00a0days (C3) were analyzed to evaluate the independent risk factors for postoperative morbidity and mortality.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>We established real\u2010time risk models for morbidity and mortality. Areas under the curve (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">AUC<\/jats:styled-content>) of C1 and C2 risk models for mortality were 0.74 (0.63\u20100.82) and 0.79 (0.69\u20100.86), respectively. Multivariate logistic analysis using C3 showed that hemoglobin &lt;10\u00a0g\/<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">dL<\/jats:styled-content>, operative time (hours), and five postoperative morbidities (prolonged ventilation &gt;48\u00a0hours, coma &gt;24\u00a0hours, renal dysfunction, postoperative systemic sepsis, and serum total bilirubin \u226510\u00a0mg\/<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">dL<\/jats:styled-content>) represented independent risk factors for mortality (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">AUC<\/jats:styled-content>\u00a0=\u00a00.87, 95% confidence interval [<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CI<\/jats:styled-content>]: 0.78\u20100.93).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>Real\u2010time risk models of postoperative morbidities and mortality at various perioperative time points in liver transplant recipients were established. These novel approaches may improve postoperative outcomes of liver transplant recipients. Furthermore, these real\u2010time risk models may be applicable to other surgical procedures.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/ags3.12217","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,11,2]],"date-time":"2018-11-02T11:03:46Z","timestamp":1541156626000},"page":"75-95","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["\u201cReal\u2010time\u201d risk models of postoperative morbidity and mortality for liver transplants"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"3","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5263-3286","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shigeru","family":"Marubashi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Database Committee of Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery  Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Naoaki","family":"Ichihara","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Clinical Database  Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yoshihiro","family":"Kakeji","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Database Committee of Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery  Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hiroaki","family":"Miyata","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Clinical Database  Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Akinobu","family":"Taketomi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Database Committee of Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery  Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hiroto","family":"Egawa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Japan Society for Transplantation  Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yasutsugu","family":"Takada","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Japanese Liver Transplant Society  Tokyo Japan"},{"name":"Japanese Society of Hepato\u2010Biliary\u2010Pancreatic Surgery  Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Koji","family":"Umeshita","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Japanese Liver Transplant Society  Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6953-8752","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yasuyuki","family":"Seto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery  Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mitsukazu","family":"Gotoh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery  Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,11,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-6143.2010.03037.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(06)68033-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2012.04.015"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/hepr.12676"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/01.sla.0000179646.37145.ef"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-6143.2008.02440.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(00)02603-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/lt.24388"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1432-2277.2007.00561.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_1","first-page":"157","article-title":"Predictive factors of early graft loss in living donor liver transplantation","volume":"49","author":"Alves RC","year":"2012","journal-title":"ArqGastroenterol"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/01.TP.0000435696.23525.d0"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ajt.14065"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.12659\/AOT.901045"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/TP.0000000000001600"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0174173"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_17_1","first-page":"29","volume-title":"Chapter 2. 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