{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,23]],"date-time":"2023-10-23T13:40:11Z","timestamp":1698068411384},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2005,5,27]],"date-time":"2005-05-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1117152000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":5990,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["American J Hum Biol"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[1989,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>We analysis data on death due to smallpox in two subdivided Finish populations, the relatively isolated \u00c5land Islands and the mainland parish of Kitee. The data span a 135\u2010year time period (1750\u20131885). Logisitic regression and Cox proportional hazards models are used to assess the effects of predictive variables on (1) the probability that an individual subdivision experiences an epidemic and (2) the length of the time period between two epidemics in each subdivision. The predictive variables include population sizes, migration rates, geographic distance, and presence or absence of vaccination. Vaccination was found to be the single most important predicative variable (odds ratio = 6.3 in \u00c5land and 4.4 in Kitee). No other variable were significant predicators in Kitee, while geographic distance was an additional significant predicator in \u00c5land (odds ratio = 1.05). As expected, vaccination and geographic distance were both negatively associated with the probability of epidemic occurrence.<\/jats:p><jats:p>The Mantel regression approach was used to evaluate the effects of independent variables on the probability that any two subdivisions experienced the same epidemic. Between\u2010subdivision migration rates were the most important predictive variable here, and population size was an important predictor in \u00c5land but not in Kitee. The differing results in these two populations are explained in terms of differences in ecological setting and social organization.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ajhb.1310010513","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2005,6,11]],"date-time":"2005-06-11T22:06:56Z","timestamp":1118527616000},"page":"621-629","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Predicting smallpox epidemics: A statistical analysis of two Finnish populations"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"1","author":[{"given":"L. B.","family":"Jorde","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"K. J.","family":"Pitk\u00e4nen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"J. H.","family":"Mielke","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2005,5,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_1_2_1","volume-title":"The Mathematical Theory of Epidemics","author":"Bailey NTJ","year":"1957"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_3_1","volume-title":"The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Disease","author":"Bailey NTJ","year":"1975"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_4_1","first-page":"81","article-title":"Deterministic and stochastic modles for recurrent epidemics","volume":"4","author":"Bartlett MS","year":"1956","journal-title":"In Proceedings of the Third Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-5193(66)90161-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1469-1809.1967.tb00035.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_7_1","volume-title":"Spatial Diffusion: An Historical Geography of Epidemics in an Island Community","author":"Cliff AD","year":"1981"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2531904"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_9_1","volume-title":"Finite Markov Chains and Their Applications","author":"Isoifescu M","year":"1980"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9781400858378"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4615-6769-1_11"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_12_1","volume-title":"The Health and Disease of Populations in Transition","author":"Jorde LB","year":"1989"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_13_1","volume-title":"Finite Markov Chains","author":"Kemeny JG","year":"1960"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/hdy.1992.111"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_15_1","first-page":"27","volume-title":"Changing Disease Patterns and Human Behaviour","author":"McNeill WH","year":"1980"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_16_1","first-page":"241","volume-title":"Advances in Human Genetics","author":"Mielke JH","year":"1976"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2061159"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_18_1","first-page":"57","article-title":"Demographic patterns in the \u00c5land Island, Finland, 1750\u20131900","volume":"25","author":"Miekle JH","year":"1987","journal-title":"Yrbk. Popul. Res. Finland"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-68635-1_4"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_20_1","unstructured":"Pitk\u00e4nenK andNieminenM(1984) The history of population registration and demographic data collection in Finlana. In National Population Bibliography of Finland 1945\u20131978. Helsinki: The International Union for the Scientific Study of Population and The Finnish Demographic Society pp.11\u201322."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/03014468800009431"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/0032472031000143866"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_23_1","first-page":"411","article-title":"Population structure and the spread of disease","volume":"59","author":"Sattenspiel L","year":"1987","journal-title":"Hum. 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