{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,26]],"date-time":"2025-09-26T13:29:56Z","timestamp":1758893396204,"version":"3.41.2"},"reference-count":37,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,9,9]],"date-time":"2018-09-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1536451200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":8,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["American J Hum Biol"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title><jats:p>Research on historical populations in Europe finds that infectious disease epidemics appear to induce predictable cycles in age\u2010specific mortality. We know little, however, about whether such cycles also occurred in less dense founder populations of North America. We used high\u2010quality data on the Quebecois population from 1680 to 1798 to examine the extent to which age\u2010specific mortality showed predictable epidemic cycles. We further examined whether environmental pressures\u2014temperature, lack of precipitation, or crop failure\u2014may have set the stage for the emergence of epidemics.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>We applied autoregressive, integrated, moving average time series methods to annual counts of period mortality for the following age groups:\u2009&lt;\u20091 year, 1 to\u2009&lt;\u20095 years, 5 to\u2009&lt;\u200915 years, 15 to\u2009&lt;\u200950 years, and 50 years and above. These methods controlled for other patterns (e.g., trend) before empirically identifying cycles.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Results indicate a strong seven\u2010year cycle in mortality among infants and children under seven years of age. Warm temperatures (across Quebec overall) and relatively dry years (in Eastern Quebec) also predicted an increased risk of mortality in infancy and childhood, although these environmental variables appear to act independently of the epidemic cycle pattern.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Discussion<\/jats:title><jats:p>Findings indicate a strong seven\u2010year epidemic cycle in historical Quebec which afflicted na\u00efve birth cohorts not previously exposed to the prior epidemic. We contend that smallpox epidemics likely contributed to this cycle. The seven\u2010year cycle occurred only in the latter half of the test period (post 1740) with increasing size of the colony and population concentration in urban areas.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/ajhb.23155","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,9,10]],"date-time":"2018-09-10T05:14:37Z","timestamp":1536556477000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Epidemic cycles and environmental pressure in colonial Quebec"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"30","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6927-964X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tim A.","family":"Bruckner","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Program in Public Health and School of Social Ecology University of California Irvine Irvine California"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Samantha","family":"Gailey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Program in Public Health and School of Social Ecology University of California Irvine Irvine California"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Stacey","family":"Hallman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"D\u00e9partement de D\u00e9mographie Universit\u00e9 de Montr\u00e9al Montr\u00e9al Qu\u00e9bec H3C 3J7 Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Marilyn","family":"Amorevieta\u2010Gentil","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"D\u00e9partement de D\u00e9mographie Universit\u00e9 de Montr\u00e9al Montr\u00e9al Qu\u00e9bec H3C 3J7 Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Lisa","family":"Dillon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"D\u00e9partement de D\u00e9mographie Universit\u00e9 de Montr\u00e9al Montr\u00e9al Qu\u00e9bec H3C 3J7 Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Alain","family":"Gagnon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"D\u00e9partement de D\u00e9mographie Universit\u00e9 de Montr\u00e9al Montr\u00e9al Qu\u00e9bec H3C 3J7 Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,9,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1391421"},{"volume-title":"Les niveaux et les facteurs d\u00e9terminants de la mortalit\u00e9 infantile en Nouvelle\u2010France et au d\u00e9but du R\u00e9gime Anglais (1621\u20131779)","year":"2009","author":"Amorevieta\u2010Gentil M.","key":"e_1_2_6_3_1"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1006215701608"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01797146"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7551\/mitpress\/4227.001.0001"},{"volume-title":"Time series analysis: Forecasting and control","year":"1994","author":"Box G.","key":"e_1_2_6_7_1"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00401706.1988.10488367"},{"volume-title":"The first French Canadians: Pioneers in the st. 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