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Here we used normative modeling to track individuals\u2019 disease progression in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and patients with AD.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>METHODS<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Cortical and subcortical normative models were generated using healthy controls (\n                      <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2248 58k). These models were used to calculate regional\n                      <jats:italic>z<\/jats:italic>\n                      scores in 3233 T1\u2010weighted magnetic resonance imaging time\u2010series scans from 1181 participants. Regions with\n                      <jats:italic>z<\/jats:italic>\n                      scores\u00a0&lt;\u00a0\u20131.96 were classified as outliers mapped on the brain and summarized by total outlier count (tOC).\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>RESULTS<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>tOC increased in AD and in people with MCI who converted to AD and also correlated with multiple non\u2010imaging markers. Moreover, a higher annual rate of change in tOC increased the risk of progression from MCI to AD. Brain outlier maps identified the hippocampus as having the highest rate of change.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>DISCUSSION<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Individual patients\u2019 atrophy rates can be tracked by using regional outlier maps and tOC.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Highlights<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      <jats:list list-type=\"bullet\">\n                        <jats:list-item>\n                          <jats:p>Neuroanatomical normative modeling was applied to serial Alzheimer's disease (AD) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data for the first time.<\/jats:p>\n                        <\/jats:list-item>\n                        <jats:list-item>\n                          <jats:p>Deviation from the norm (outliers) of cortical thickness or brain volume was computed in 3233 scans.<\/jats:p>\n                        <\/jats:list-item>\n                        <jats:list-item>\n                          <jats:p>The number of brain\u2010structure outliers increased over time in people with AD.<\/jats:p>\n                        <\/jats:list-item>\n                        <jats:list-item>\n                          <jats:p>Patterns of change in outliers varied markedly between individual patients with AD.<\/jats:p>\n                        <\/jats:list-item>\n                        <jats:list-item>\n                          <jats:p>People with mild cognitive impairment whose outliers increased over time had a higher risk of progression from AD.<\/jats:p>\n                        <\/jats:list-item>\n                      <\/jats:list>\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  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