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A logistic regression model, using cognitive tests as predictors and dementia progression as an outcome, stratified participants into low, intermediate, or high risk. A second model, including 1\u2010year cognitive test changes, was applied to the intermediate group. The models were replicated in 392 SCD\/MCI participants from the BioFINDER\u20101 study.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>RESULTS<\/jats:title><jats:p>The best two\u2010step model for predicting dementia incorporated Trail Making Test B (attention\/executive function), Animal Fluency (verbal fluency), Mini\u2010Mental State Examination (global cognition), and 10\u2010word list recall (memory). The model's positive predictive value in ADNI was 85.8% and negative predictive value was 92.2% versus 62.5% and 95.6%, respectively, in BioFINDER\u20101.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>DISCUSSION<\/jats:title><jats:p>This two\u2010step model accurately predicts individualized dementia risk.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Highlights<\/jats:title><jats:p><jats:list list-type=\"bullet\">\n<jats:list-item><jats:p>To our knowledge, this is the first algorithm for predicting all\u2010cause dementia using a novel two\u2010step model utilizing brief cognitive tests.<\/jats:p><\/jats:list-item>\n<jats:list-item><jats:p>Applying a validated model including the Trail Making Test B, Animal Fluency, MMSE, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale delayed, and immediate recall can robustly and accurately categorize individuals into low, intermediate, or high risk of dementia progression and can facilitate clinical decision\u2010making and personalized patient care.<\/jats:p><\/jats:list-item>\n<jats:list-item><jats:p>We created an app that is available for research and educational purposes at <jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" xlink:href=\"https:\/\/brainapps.shinyapps.io\/PredictAllCauseDementia\">https:\/\/brainapps.shinyapps.io\/PredictAllCauseDementia<\/jats:ext-link> to provide an individualized risk score for dementia progression.<\/jats:p><\/jats:list-item>\n<\/jats:list><\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/alz.14305","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,17]],"date-time":"2024-10-17T06:29:06Z","timestamp":1729146546000},"page":"8625-8638","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Individualized, cross\u2010validated prediction of future dementia using cognitive assessments in people with mild cognitive symptoms"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"20","author":[{"given":"Emma","family":"Borland","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Clinical Memory Research Unit Department of Clinical Sciences, Malm\u00f6 Faculty of Medicine at Lund University Clinical Research Centre  Malm\u00f6 Sweden"},{"name":"Department of Neurology Sk\u00e5ne University Hospital  Malm\u00f6 Sweden"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Niklas","family":"Mattson\u2010Carlgren","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Clinical Memory Research Unit Department of Clinical Sciences, Malm\u00f6 Faculty of Medicine at Lund University Clinical Research Centre  Malm\u00f6 Sweden"},{"name":"Department of Neurology Sk\u00e5ne University Hospital  Malm\u00f6 Sweden"},{"name":"Wallenberg Center for Molecular Medicine Lund University  Lund Sweden"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pontus","family":"Tideman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Clinical 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