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We assessed several health measures at baseline and 10\u2010year cognitive decline and cognitive impairment. We constructed Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) logistic regression models.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>RESULTS<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The top cognitive decline predictors (age, income, fine\u2010motor skills, olfaction, peripheral artery disease, and serum neurofilament light chain protein [NfL]) and cognitive impairment predictors (sex, fine\u2010motor skills, olfaction, self\u2010rated vision, alcohol consumption, and NfL) yielded areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of 0.80 (95% confidence interval [0.76\u20130.83]) and 0.73[0.69\u20130.77], respectively.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>DISCUSSION<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In middle\u2010aged adults, sensory and motor function and NfL were among the best predictors of 10\u2010year onset of cognitive decline and impairment. After external validation in other studies, these results could help identify those at risk for neurodegeneration and cognitive decline who could benefit from early interventions.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/alz.71194","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,8]],"date-time":"2026-03-08T12:36:23Z","timestamp":1772973383000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Midlife sensory and motor measures among best predictors in parsimonious models of long\u2010term cognitive decline and incidence of cognitive impairment in aging adults"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"22","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1405-1218","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Natascha","family":"Merten","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Population Health Sciences School of Medicine and Public Health University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison  Madison Wisconsin USA"},{"name":"Division of Geriatrics and Gerontology Department of Medicine School of Medicine and Public Health University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison  Madison Wisconsin USA"},{"name":"Wisconsin Alzheimer's Disease Research Center School of Medicine and Public Health University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison  Madison Wisconsin USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"A. Alex","family":"Pinto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics School of Medicine and Public Health University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison  Madison Wisconsin USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Carla R.","family":"Schubert","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Population Health Sciences School of Medicine and Public Health University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison  Madison Wisconsin USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Richard J.","family":"Chappell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics School of Medicine and Public Health University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison  Madison Wisconsin USA"},{"name":"Department of Statistics School of Computer Data &amp; Information Sciences University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison  Madison Wisconsin USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yanjun","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences School of Medicine and Public Health University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison  Madison Wisconsin USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Corinne D.","family":"Engelman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Population Health Sciences School of Medicine and Public Health University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison  Madison Wisconsin USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Luigi","family":"Ferrucci","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Longitudinal Study Section, Intramural Research Program National Institute on Aging NIH  Gaithersburg Maryland USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Laura M.","family":"Hancock","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Section of Neuropsychology Neurological Institute Cleveland Clinic  Cleveland Ohio USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sterling C.","family":"Johnson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Geriatrics and Gerontology Department of Medicine School of Medicine and Public Health University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison  Madison Wisconsin USA"},{"name":"Wisconsin Alzheimer's Disease Research Center School of Medicine and Public Health University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison  Madison Wisconsin USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Adam J.","family":"Paulsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Geriatrics and Gerontology Department of Medicine School of Medicine and Public Health University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison  Madison Wisconsin USA"},{"name":"Wisconsin Alzheimer's Disease Research Center School of Medicine and Public Health University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison  Madison Wisconsin USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.j2856"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","unstructured":"PrinceM WimoA GuerchetM AliG\u2010C WuY\u2010T PrinaM World Alzheimer Report 2015 The Global Impact of Dementia an analysis of prevalence incidence cost and trends 2015. 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