{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,8]],"date-time":"2026-10-08T02:34:11Z","timestamp":1791426851839,"version":"4.3.3"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,23]],"date-time":"2026-04-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1776902400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,23]],"date-time":"2026-04-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1776902400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["arthroscopyjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Arthroscopy"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Purpose<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To project the future utilization of open and arthroscopic rotator cuff repair (RCR) in the Medicare population through 2050, incorporating post\u2010COVID recovery data to provide insight into evolving surgical preferences, economic pressures, and implications for health care delivery.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We analyzed 2003\u20102024 data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Medicare Part\u2010B National Summary, which captures all Medicare beneficiaries undergoing open or arthroscopic RCR as identified by Current Procedural Terminology codes. Projections were based on 2003\u20102019 and 2023\u20102024 data, reflecting post\u2010COVID\u201019 recovery and avoiding distortions from 2020 to 2022 pandemic\u2010related disruptions. Statistical models evaluated included log\u2010linear, Poisson, negative binomial, and autoregressive integrated moving average. Autoregressive integrated moving average was selected based on the lowest normalized root mean square error, reflecting superior predictive accuracy and its ability to capture time\u2010dependent trends, and was used to forecast RCR volumes through 2050.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In 2024, there were 23,154 open and 188,700 arthroscopic RCR procedures, which served as the baseline for modeling. Open RCR is projected to decline on average by 5.91% annually, while arthroscopic RCR is projected to grow by 2.88% annually. By 2050, arthroscopic RCR volume is expected to reach 394,434 procedures (95% forecast interval: 363,424\u2010425,321), whereas open RCR is expected to decline to 4748 procedures (95% forecast interval: 1243\u201043,747).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Autoregressive integrated moving average modeling projects that by 2050 arthroscopic RCR utilization will increase by 2\u2010fold and open RCR will decline to one\u2010fifth compared with 2024 baseline volumes.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Level of Evidence<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Level III, retrospective cohort study.<\/jats:p>\n                  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