{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,26]],"date-time":"2026-09-26T12:02:19Z","timestamp":1790424139631,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":22,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,5,26]],"date-time":"2016-05-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1464220800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"name":"Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, NIH"},{"name":"NIH (National Institute on Aging)","award":["R01-AG-034676"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01-AG-034676"]}]},{"name":"National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences Clinical and Translational Science Award Program","award":["UL1-TR-000135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UL1-TR-000135"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Arthritis &amp; Rheumatology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>The long\u2010term outcome of patients with nonradiographic axial spondyloarthritis (SpA) is unclear, particularly whether few or most progress to ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Our objective was to examine the progression to AS in a population\u2010based inception cohort of patients with nonradiographic axial SpA.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>The Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP) is a longstanding population\u2010based study of health in the residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota. We searched the REP from 1985 to 2010 using diagnostic and procedural codes for back pain, HLA\u2013B27, and magnetic resonance imaging of the pelvis, and we performed detailed chart reviews to identify subjects who fulfilled the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society classification criteria for axial SpA but did not have AS. We followed these subjects from disease onset to March 15, 2015, and used survival analysis to measure the time to progression to AS.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>After screening 2,151 patients, we identified 83 subjects with new\u2010onset nonradiographic axial SpA. Over a mean follow\u2010up of 10.6 years, progression to AS occurred in 16 patients. The probability that the condition would remain as nonradiographic axial SpA at 5, 10, and 15 years was 93.6%, 82.7%, and 73.6%, respectively. There was more frequent and more rapid progression among subjects in the imaging arm (n\u2009=\u200918) than among those in the clinical arm (n\u2009=\u200965) (28% versus 17%; hazard ratio 3.50 [95% confidence interval 1.15\u201310.6], <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20090.02).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>Progression to AS occurred in a minority (26%) of patients with nonradiographic axial SpA over as long as 15 years of follow\u2010up. This suggests that the classification criteria for nonradiographic axial SpA identifies many patients in whom the condition is unlikely to progress to AS or that nonradiographic axial SpA represents a prolonged prodromal state that takes longer to evolve to AS and thus requires longer follow\u2010up.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/art.39542","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,12,14]],"date-time":"2015-12-14T11:00:41Z","timestamp":1450090841000},"page":"1415-1421","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":68,"title":["Progression of Nonradiographic Axial Spondyloarthritis to Ankylosing Spondylitis: A Population\u2010Based Cohort Study"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"68","author":[{"given":"Runsheng","family":"Wang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, NIH Bethesda Maryland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sherine E.","family":"Gabriel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mayo Clinic Rochester Minnesota"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael M.","family":"Ward","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, NIH Bethesda Maryland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,5,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.1780270401"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00296-002-0237-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.24483"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.1780280107"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.20990"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"ii1","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2008.104018","article-title":"The Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS) handbook: a guide to assess spondyloarthritis","volume":"68","author":"Sieper J","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ann Rheum Dis"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/annrheumdis-2012-202073"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/acr.21688"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1756-185X.12579"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2010.145995"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/acr.21804"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_13_1","first-page":"2649","article-title":"The concept of axial spondyloarthritis: joint statement of the Spondyloarthritis Research and Treatment Network and the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society in response to the US Food and Drug Administration's comments and concerns. 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