{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,21]],"date-time":"2026-10-21T06:17:55Z","timestamp":1792563475047,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":23,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,13]],"date-time":"2018-05-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1526169600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000069","name":"National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000069","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100006260","name":"Rheumatology Research Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100006260","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000049","name":"National Institute on Aging","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01\u2010AG\u2010034676"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01\u2010AG\u2010034676"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000049","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100006108","name":"National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UL1\u2010TR\u2010000135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UL1\u2010TR\u2010000135"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100006108","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["acrjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Arthritis &amp; Rheumatology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>Inflammatory back pain (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">IBP<\/jats:styled-content>) is often an early manifestation of spondyloarthritis (SpA), but the prognosis of patients with incident <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">IBP<\/jats:styled-content> is unknown. This study was undertaken to investigate long\u2010term outcomes in patients with <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">IBP<\/jats:styled-content>, and predictors of progression to SpA, in a population\u2010based cohort.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>We conducted a retrospective, longitudinal study using the Rochester Epidemiology Project, a longstanding population\u2010based cohort of residents of Olmsted County, <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">MN<\/jats:styled-content>. Patients ages 16\u201335 years with clinical visits for back pain from 1999 to 2003 were identified, and we screened these patients for the presence of new\u2010onset <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">IBP<\/jats:styled-content> and performed medical record reviews to collect data on clinical, laboratory, and imaging features of SpA. Outcomes in these patients were followed up until July 2016. We used survival analysis for competing risks to examine progression to either SpA, a non\u2010SpA diagnosis, or resolution of back pain. Recursive partitioning was used to identify predictors of progression to SpA.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Among 5,304 patients with back pain, we identified 124 patients with new\u2010onset <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">IBP<\/jats:styled-content>. After a median follow\u2010up of 13.2 years, <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">IBP<\/jats:styled-content> had progressed to SpA in 39 patients, 15 patients developed a non\u2010SpA diagnosis, and 58 patients had resolution of <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">IBP<\/jats:styled-content>. At 10 years, the probability of having SpA was 30%, while the probability of resolution of <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">IBP<\/jats:styled-content> was 43%. The most important predictors for progression to SpA were uveitis, male sex, and family history of SpA.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>In a minority of patients, new\u2010onset <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">IBP<\/jats:styled-content> progresses to SpA, while <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">IBP<\/jats:styled-content> resolves in many. That <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">IBP<\/jats:styled-content> often resolves may explain the difference between the prevalence of <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">IBP<\/jats:styled-content> (3\u20136%) and the prevalence of SpA (0.4\u20131.3%).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/art.40460","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,2,23]],"date-time":"2018-02-23T01:09:29Z","timestamp":1519348169000},"page":"1049-1055","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Clinical Evolution in Patients With New\u2010Onset Inflammatory Back Pain"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"70","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8115-7509","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Runsheng","family":"Wang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, New York, and National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, NIH Bethesda Maryland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5847-7475","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cynthia S.","family":"Crowson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mayo Clinic Rochester Minnesota"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kerry","family":"Wright","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mayo Clinic Rochester Minnesota"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael M.","family":"Ward","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, NIH Bethesda Maryland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2006.068734"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.1780270401"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2009.108217"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.1977.03270510035017"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.21619"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2008.101501"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10067-014-2622-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2011.151167"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/annrheumdis-2012-201403"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.23177"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/MAJ.0b013e31820f8c99"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_13_1","first-page":"1109","article-title":"Clinical features and prognosis of patients with possible ankylosing spondylitis: results of a 10\u2010year followup","volume":"15","author":"Mau W","year":"1988","journal-title":"J Rheumatol"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2005.043471"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3899\/jrheum.090625"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00296-002-0237-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dys195"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2712"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_19_1","first-page":"1052","article-title":"Defining morning stiffness in rheumatoid arthritis","volume":"26","author":"Lineker S","year":"1999","journal-title":"J Rheumatol"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00007632-198003000-00016"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/rheumatology\/ket344"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3899\/jrheum.101035"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10067-015-2960-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.38873"}],"container-title":["Arthritis &amp; 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