{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,28]],"date-time":"2026-02-28T18:59:21Z","timestamp":1772305161244,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,31]],"date-time":"2019-07-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1564531200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100010767","name":"Innovative Medicines Initiative","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["115737\u20102"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["115737\u20102"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100010767","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Biometrical J"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Clinical prediction models play a key role in risk stratification, therapy assignment and many other fields of medical decision making. Before they can enter clinical practice, their usefulness has to be demonstrated using systematic validation. Methods to assess their predictive performance have been proposed for continuous, binary, and time\u2010to\u2010event outcomes, but the literature on validation methods for discrete time\u2010to\u2010event models with competing risks is sparse. The present paper tries to fill this gap and proposes new methodology to quantify discrimination, calibration, and prediction error (PE) for discrete time\u2010to\u2010event outcomes in the presence of competing risks. In our case study, the goal was to predict the risk of ventilator\u2010associated pneumonia (VAP) attributed to <jats:italic>Pseudomonas\u00a0aeruginosa<\/jats:italic> in intensive care units (ICUs). Competing events are extubation, death, and VAP due to other bacteria. The aim of this application is to validate complex prediction models developed in previous work on more recently available validation\u00a0data.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/bimj.201800293","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,1]],"date-time":"2019-08-01T06:23:55Z","timestamp":1564640635000},"page":"643-657","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["Validation of discrete time\u2010to\u2010event prediction models in the presence of competing risks"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"62","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7531-4333","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rachel","family":"Heyard","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics at the Epidemiology Biostatistics and Prevention Institute University of Zurich Hirschengraben Switzerland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jean\u2010Fran\u00e7ois","family":"Timsit","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"UMR 1137 IAME University Paris\u2010Diderot, Inserm Paris France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8686-5325","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Leonhard","family":"Held","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics at the Epidemiology Biostatistics and Prevention Institute University of Zurich Hirschengraben Switzerland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"name":"COMBACTE\u2010MAGNET consortium","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2427"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1164\/rccm.201105-0867OC"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/1471082X17748084"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4614-2035-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.5958"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/biom.12232"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/CCM.0000000000001091"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/0470011815.b2a11012"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780091214"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.8063"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1137\/1.9781611970319"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/9780429246593"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/0470011815.b2a11017"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bimj.200610301"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0258(19990915\/30)18:17\/18<2529::AID-SIM274>3.0.CO;2-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0258(19960229)15:4<361::AID-SIM168>3.0.CO;2-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0006-341X.2005.030814.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/14-STS510"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.7089"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.913"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bimj.201700259"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.e3325"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9781118032985"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0962280216680239"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1541-0420.2009.01375.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecosta.2017.03.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bimj.201000073"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1541-0420.2007.00889.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bimj.201000145"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1055\/s-0038-1634384"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3102\/10769986018002155"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-387-77244-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00134-016-4404-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-28158-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.6114"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_38_1","volume-title":"Dynamic prediction in clinical survival analysis","author":"Houwelingen H. C.","year":"2012"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1541-0420.2011.01671.x"}],"container-title":["Biometrical Journal"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/bimj.201800293","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/bimj.201800293","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/bimj.201800293","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,4]],"date-time":"2023-09-04T04:12:14Z","timestamp":1693800734000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/bimj.201800293"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,31]]},"references-count":38,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,5]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/bimj.201800293"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/bimj.201800293","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0323-3847","1521-4036"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0323-3847","type":"print"},{"value":"1521-4036","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,31]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2018-09-14","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2019-06-28","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2019-07-31","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}