{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,27]],"date-time":"2026-05-27T22:10:10Z","timestamp":1779919810654,"version":"3.53.1"},"reference-count":25,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"18","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,27]],"date-time":"2019-10-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1572134400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Cancer Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Estimation of incidence and prognosis of melanomas with brain metastases (MBM) at initial diagnosis based on a large cohort is lacking in current research. This study aims to construct an effective prognostic nomogram for newly diagnosed MBM.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Materials and Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Patients diagnosed with melanomas from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program between 2010 and 2014 were enrolled in our study. Risk factors predicting brain metastases (BM) were identified using logistic regression analysis. Cox regression analysis was performed to identify prognostic factors of overall survival (OS). Nomogram for estimating 6\u2010, 9\u2010, and 12\u2010month OS was established based on Cox regression analysis. The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomogram were tested using C statistics, calibration plots, and Kaplan\u2010Meier curves.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Sixty\u2010two thousand three hundred and sixty\u2010nine melanoma patients were enrolled, including 928 with BM. Sex, marital status, insurance status, subsite, surgery of primary sites, radiation, chemotherapy, bone metastases, liver metastases, and lung metastases were associated with MBM at initial diagnosis. On multivariable Cox regression, the following eight variables were incorporated in the prediction of OS: age, unmarried status, absence of surgery to primary sites or unknown, absence of radiation or unknown, absence of chemotherapy or unknown, with bone metastases, with liver metastases, and with lung metastases. The nomogram showed good predictive ability as indicated by discriminative ability and calibration, with the C statistics of 0.716 (95% CI, 0.695\u20100.737).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>The incidence and prognosis of MBM patients were well estimated in this study based on a large cohort. The nomogram performed well and could be a useful tool to predict prognosis.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/cam4.2644","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,28]],"date-time":"2019-10-28T05:29:37Z","timestamp":1572240577000},"page":"7577-7585","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Predictive value of a nomogram for melanomas with brain metastases at initial diagnosis"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"8","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9305-4889","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hong","family":"Liu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medical Oncology The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University Hangzhou Zhejiang China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4129-7376","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yan\u2010Bo","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgical Oncology The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University Hangzhou Zhejiang China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cheng\u2010Cheng","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China Department of Neurosurgical Oncology Sun Yat\u2010Sen University Cancer Center Guangzhou Guangdong China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2397-8792","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ming\u2010Xin","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Medicine Upstate Medical University New York NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jia\u2010Li","family":"Ji","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Oncology Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Nantong University Nantong Jiangsu China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rong\u2010Rong","family":"Dong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine The Children's Hospital of Zhejiang University Hangzhou Zhejiang China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ling\u2010Ling","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Oncology International Hospital of Peking University Beijing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xue\u2010Xin","family":"He","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medical Oncology The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University Hangzhou Zhejiang China"},{"name":"Division of Internal Medicine The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center Houston TX USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3322\/caac.21551"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","unstructured":"National Cancer Institute.Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results Program. 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