{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,16]],"date-time":"2026-07-16T11:04:18Z","timestamp":1784199858097,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,29]],"date-time":"2026-05-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1780012800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,29]],"date-time":"2026-05-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1780012800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Cancer Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Despite not achieving statistical significance, the JAVELIN Renal 101 trial indicated a potentially clinically relevant effect size (hazard ratio [HR], 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 1.04) on overall survival (OS) favoring avelumab plus axitinib over sunitinib for advanced renal cell carcinoma (aRCC). To better interpret these findings, we performed a Bayesian evaluation.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We reanalyzed individual participant data from the JAVELIN Renal 101 trial using a Bayesian framework. Prior distributions were specified for varying levels of enthusiasm and skepticism for avelumab plus axitinib, and a prior from a meta\u2010analysis of similar trials. The posterior probability of any OS benefit with avelumab plus axitinib, Pr(HR &lt;\u20091.0), and of benefit exceeding the minimal clinically important difference (MCID; HR\u2009=\u20090.75), Pr(HR\u2009&lt;\u2009MCID), were estimated using Bayesian Cox models. Bayesian hierarchical models evaluated treatment effect heterogeneity across International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium risk groups and programmed death\u2010ligand 1 (PD\u2010L1) status.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Regardless of the prior assumptions used, Pr(HR &lt;\u20091.0) was consistently high (93.0% to 95.5%). However, Pr(HR\u2009&lt;\u2009MCID) was low (1.0% to 3.8%). Results were similar when the prior was informed by pooled data from similar trials. In subgroup analyses, Pr(HR\u2009&lt;\u2009MCID) varied by risk group: 63.4% for poor\u2010risk, 34.9% for favorable\u2010risk, and 0.9% for intermediate\u2010risk aRCC. This probability was low regardless of PD\u2010L1 status.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This exploratory Bayesian reanalysis complements the interpretation of the JAVELIN Renal 101 trial and offers a probabilistic perspective beyond a dichotomous (i.e., significant\/nonsignificant) interpretation.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/cam4.71999","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,30]],"date-time":"2026-05-30T05:23:17Z","timestamp":1780118597000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Bayesian Evaluation of Treatment Effect of Avelumab Plus Axitinib for Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1044-912X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Wataru","family":"Fukuokaya","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Urology The Jikei University School of Medicine  Tokyo Japan"},{"name":"Department of Clinical Biostatistics, Graduate School of Medical and Dental Science Institute of Science Tokyo  Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Keiichiro","family":"Mori","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Urology The Jikei University School of Medicine  Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7410-0712","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Takafumi","family":"Yanagisawa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Urology The Jikei University School of Medicine  Tokyo 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