{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,26]],"date-time":"2026-08-26T14:29:21Z","timestamp":1787754561822,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":31,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,31]],"date-time":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785456000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,31]],"date-time":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785456000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Clinical Cardiology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The COVID\u201019 pandemic caused a global rise in cardiovascular mortality. In Italy, a large excess deaths from ischemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CVD), hypertensive diseases (HD), and atrial fibrillation (AF) was observed early during the pandemic. Whether mortality has since returned to pre\u2010pandemic levels remains uncertain.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This study analyzed mortality data for residents aged\u2009\u2265\u200940 in the Veneto Region, Italy, using multiple causes of death (MCOD) from death certificates. Age\u2010standardized monthly mortality rates were computed for IHD, CVD, HD, and AF. Forecasts for 2023 were generated using two scenarios: excluding the pandemic period (2008\u20132019) and including it (2008\u20132022). Seasonal ARIMA and Lee\u2010Carter models were applied, and observed 2023 rates were compared with forecasts.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In 2020, all circulatory disease categories showed a mortality peak, especially HD (+29%). Although rates decreased in 2021\u20132022, they remained significantly above pre\u2010pandemic levels. In 2023, observed rates for all conditions were close to those forecasted using the 2008\u20132019 baseline. By contrast, observed rates were significantly lower than expected when using the 2008\u20132022 baseline. Seasonal peaks were still observed in December 2023, associated with the circulation of multiple respiratory viruses. Lee\u2010Carter model results confirmed a general re\u2010alignment of 2023 mortality with pre\u2010pandemic patterns.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>By 2023, mortality from major circulatory diseases in the Veneto Region largely returned to pre\u2010pandemic trends, suggesting limited long\u2010term excess mortality. The findings underscore the value of MCOD data and time\u2010series modeling in capturing both short\u2010term disruptions and long\u2010term recovery patterns in population health.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/clc.70433","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,31]],"date-time":"2026-07-31T11:50:12Z","timestamp":1785498612000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Mortality Related to Different Circulatory Diseases Before, During and After the COVID\u201019 Pandemic"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"49","author":[{"given":"Giulia","family":"Capodaglio","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Screening Unit, Azienda Zero Veneto Region Padova Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9939-3398","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ugo","family":"Fedeli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Epidemiological Department Azienda Zero, Veneto Region Padova Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4644-4358","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Susanna","family":"Levantesi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics Sapienza University of Rome Roma Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8330-9414","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paolo","family":"Girardi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences Informatics and Statistics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Mestre\u2010Venezia  Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jacc.2020.10.055"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10654-023-01044-x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyaf006"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.thromres.2022.02.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ehjopen\/oead119"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/joim.13811"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fcvm.2024.1279890"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amepre.2025.108119"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pmedr.2024.102876"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.annepidem.2025.05.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/j.cm13164813"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pmedr.2026.103373"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.lanepe.2023.100802"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.puhe.2024.09.007"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","unstructured":"Disparities.2025.Mortality Profile: Statistical Commentary https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/statistics\/mortality-profile-december-2025-update."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjph-2024-001836"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijcard.2024.132042"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_19_1","volume-title":"Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control","author":"Box G. 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