{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,19]],"date-time":"2026-09-19T09:47:29Z","timestamp":1789811249131,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"22","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,16]],"date-time":"2014-07-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1405468800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Cancer"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2014,11,15]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>BACKGROUND<\/jats:title><jats:p>All patients with cirrhosis are at risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This risk is not uniform because other patient\u2010related factors influence the risk of HCC. The objective of the current study was to develop an HCC risk prediction model to estimate the 1\u2010year probability of HCC to assist with patient counseling.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>METHODS<\/jats:title><jats:p>Between 2002 and 2011, a cohort of 34,932 patients with cirrhosis was identified from a national liver transplantation waitlist database from the United States. Cox proportional hazards regression methods were used to develop and validate a risk prediction model for incident HCC. In the validation cohort, discrimination and calibration of the model was examined. External validation was conducted using patients with cirrhosis who were enrolled in the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long\u2010term Treatment against Cirrhosis (HALT\u2010C) study.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>RESULTS<\/jats:title><jats:p>HCC developed in 1960 patients (5.6%) during a median follow\u2010up of 1.3 years (interquartile range, 0.47 years\u20102.83 years). Six baseline clinical variables, including <jats:italic>a<\/jats:italic>ge, <jats:italic>d<\/jats:italic>iabetes, <jats:italic>r<\/jats:italic>ace, <jats:italic>e<\/jats:italic>tiology of cirrhosis, <jats:italic>s<\/jats:italic>ex, and <jats:italic>s<\/jats:italic>everity (ADRESS) of liver dysfunction were independently associated with HCC and were used to develop the ADRESS\u2010HCC risk model. C\u2010indices in the derivation and internal validation cohorts were 0.704 and 0.691, respectively. In the validation cohort, the predicted cumulative incidence of HCC by the ADRESS\u2010HCC model closely matched the observed data. In patients with cirrhosis in the HALT\u2010C cohort, the model stratified patients correctly according to the risk of developing HCC within 5 years.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>CONCLUSIONS<\/jats:title><jats:p>The ADRESS\u2010HCC risk model is a useful tool for predicting the 1\u2010year risk of HCC among patients with cirrhosis. <jats:bold><jats:italic>Cancer<\/jats:italic> 2014;120:3485\u20133493.<\/jats:bold> \u00a9 <jats:italic>2014 American Cancer Society<\/jats:italic>.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/cncr.28832","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,16]],"date-time":"2014-07-16T15:18:16Z","timestamp":1405523896000},"page":"3485-3493","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":151,"title":["Risk prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis: The ADRESS\u2010HCC risk model"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"120","author":[{"given":"Jennifer A.","family":"Flemming","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cancer Care and Epidemiology, Department of Medicine Queen's University Kingston Ontario Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ju Dong","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine University of Arkansas for Medical Science Little Rock Arkansas"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eric","family":"Vittinghoff","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics University of California at San Francisco San Francisco California"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"W. Ray","family":"Kim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University Stanford California"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Norah A.","family":"Terrault","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine University of California at San Francisco San Francisco California"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM199903113401001"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1200\/JCO.2008.20.7753"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","unstructured":"American Cancer Society. Cancer Facts & Figures 2012. Atlanta GA: American Cancer Society; 2012."},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Health Statistics. Mortality Files.cdc.gov\/Nchs\/. 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