{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,22]],"date-time":"2026-09-22T06:06:31Z","timestamp":1790057191217,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Wiley","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]],"date-time":"2026-09-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1789948800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]],"date-time":"2026-09-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1789948800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004772","name":"Natural Science Foundation of Ningxia Province","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2026AAC031147"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2026AAC031147"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004772","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100007452","name":"Wu Jieping Medical Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["320.6750.2025\u201006\u2010228"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["320.6750.2025\u201006\u2010228"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100007452","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["ascpt.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Clin Pharma and Therapeutics"],"abstract":"<jats:p>After short dual antiplatelet therapy, ticagrelor monotherapy may reduce bleeding while maintaining ischemic protection after percutaneous coronary intervention, but frequentist analyses do not directly estimate benefit\u2010harm probabilities, limiting the quantitative interpretation of the ischemic\u2010bleeding trade\u2010off. In this post hoc Bayesian analysis of ULTIMATE\u2010DAPT, we assessed the probabilistic risk\u2010benefit profile of ticagrelor monotherapy using trial data with non\u2010informative priors and four hierarchical informative priors derived from external randomized evidence. The likelihood and informative priors used published aggregate summary statistics (not individual participant data). Posterior probabilities for absolute risk reduction and relative risk were estimated across clinically relevant thresholds. Primary endpoints were the ischemic composite of all\u2010cause death, myocardial infarction, or stroke and major bleeding; secondary endpoints included individual ischemic components, stent thrombosis, and any bleeding. Under non\u2010informative priors, the probability of increased ischemic risk was 29.0%, whereas that of reduced bleeding exceeded 99.5%. Increased stent thrombosis risk was near neutral, while increased myocardial infarction risk was notable (87.0%); other ischemic endpoints were &lt;\u200950.0%. Informative priors confirmed substantial bleeding benefit (probability of RR &lt;\u20090.80, &gt;\u200997.5%). In mixed cohorts including chronic coronary syndrome patients, probabilities of increased stent thrombosis rose to 75.8%\u201387.7% and myocardial infarction exceeded 91.0%, particularly with aspirin withdrawal at \u2264\u20091\u2009month. These findings provide complementary quantitative, population\u2010level evidence indicating that ticagrelor monotherapy after short DAPT was associated with reduced bleeding and a low posterior probability of increased overall ischemic risk, although potential ischemic risks remained with very early aspirin withdrawal and in mixed cohorts including chronic coronary syndrome patients.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/cpt.70484","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,22]],"date-time":"2026-09-22T05:52:42Z","timestamp":1790056362000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Probabilistic Risk\u2013Benefit Profile of Ticagrelor Monotherapy After Short Dual Antiplatelet Therapy: A Bayesian Analysis of the\n                    <scp>ULTIMATE<\/scp>\n                    \u2010\n                    <scp>DAPT<\/scp>\n                    Trial"],"prefix":"10.1002","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0001-9289-8799","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nan","family":"Yang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Pharmacy General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University  Yinchuan China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-6380-5424","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xianxin","family":"Xie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Pharmacy Ningxia Medical University  Yinchuan China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-4475-9441","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nan","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Pharmacy People's Hospital of Peking University  Beijing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0008-5170-1727","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ling","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Pharmacy Ningxia Medical University  Yinchuan China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8353-2314","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ning","family":"Deng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Office of Drug Clinical Trial Organization General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University  Yinchuan China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-5264-1319","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xiaoping","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Pharmacy General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University  Yinchuan China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-4807-3261","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Libo","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Heart Centre and Department of Cardiovascular Diseases General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University  Yinchuan China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-6431-8660","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hua","family":"Gao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Pharmacy General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University  Yinchuan China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"213","DOI":"10.1093\/eurheartj\/ehx419","article-title":"2017 ESC focused update on dual antiplatelet therapy in coronary artery disease developed in collaboration with EACTS: the task force for dual antiplatelet therapy in coronary artery disease of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and of the European Association for Cardio\u2010Thoracic Surgery (EACTS)","volume":"39","author":"Valgimigli M.","year":"2018","journal-title":"Eur. Heart J."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1025","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(17)30397-5","article-title":"Derivation and validation of the predicting bleeding complications in patients undergoing stent implantation and subsequent dual antiplatelet therapy (PRECISE\u2010DAPT) score: a pooled analysis of individual\u2010patient datasets from clinical trials","volume":"389","author":"Costa F.","year":"2017","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"572","DOI":"10.1093\/eurheartj\/ehad876","article-title":"Aspirin\u2010free antiplatelet strategies after percutaneous coronary interventions","volume":"45","author":"Capranzano P.","year":"2024","journal-title":"Eur. Heart J."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2407","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2020.7580","article-title":"Effect of Ticagrelor monotherapy vs Ticagrelor with aspirin on major bleeding and cardiovascular events in patients with acute coronary syndrome: the TICO randomized clinical trial","volume":"323","author":"Kim B.K.","year":"2020","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"562","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.123.066943","article-title":"Stopping aspirin within 1 month after stenting for Ticagrelor monotherapy in acute coronary syndrome: the T\u2010PASS randomized noninferiority trial","volume":"149","author":"Hong S.J.","year":"2024","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2032","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1908419","article-title":"Ticagrelor with or without aspirin in high\u2010risk patients after PCI","volume":"381","author":"Mehran R.","year":"2019","journal-title":"N. Engl. J. Med."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1866","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(24)00473-2","article-title":"Ticagrelor alone versus ticagrelor plus aspirin from month 1 to month 12 after percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ULTIMATE\u2010DAPT): a randomised, placebo\u2010controlled, double\u2010blind clinical trial","volume":"403","author":"Ge Z.","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","first-page":"1378","article-title":"Understanding the merits and drawbacks of noninferiority trials in cardiovascular medicine","volume":"37","author":"Kaul S.","year":"2021","journal-title":"Can. J. Cardiol."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"62","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-145-1-200607040-00011","article-title":"Good enough: a primer on the analysis and interpretation of noninferiority trials","volume":"145","author":"Kaul S.","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ann. Intern. 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