{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]],"date-time":"2026-09-21T10:26:45Z","timestamp":1789986405696,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,18]],"date-time":"2025-03-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1742256000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":17,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Diabetes Metabolism Res"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aims<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In Japan, several prediction models and scoring systems for type 2 diabetes have been reported; however, none have high utility. We developed a new clinical prediction model for the onset of type 2 diabetes.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Materials and Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The development dataset was obtained from 72,124 Japanese employees who participated in a health check\u2010up programme conducted by Panasonic Corporation (Osaka, Japan), were aged 40\u00a0years or older, were diabetes\u2010free at baseline, and followed\u2010up for up to 10\u00a0years. The external validation dataset was obtained from 12,885 participants of the NAGALA (Gifu City, Gifu Prefecture Longitudinal Analysis) cohort. A prediction model was developed to predict the 10\u2010year risk of developing diabetes using information from the health checkup programme. The developed model was internally validated, and externally validated using the NAGALA cohort.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Using information on age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, log\u2010triglycerides, high\u2010density lipoprotein, log\u2010alanine aminotransferase, fasting plasma glucose, weight gain, and smoking status obtained from a health checkup programme, we developed a novel, highly sensitive, and specific model for predicting the 10\u2010year risk of developing diabetes. The prediction model showed excellent performance, with an optimism\u2010corrected c\u2010index of 0.877 and a c\u2010index of 0.882 in the external validation cohort.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We developed a noninvasive diabetes risk\u2010prediction model for the Japanese population and confirmed its utility for identifying individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes over time.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/dmrr.70040","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,18]],"date-time":"2025-03-18T09:11:57Z","timestamp":1742289117000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Development of a Prediction Model for Predicting 10\u2010year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Japanese People; Panasonic Cohort Study 7"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"41","author":[{"given":"Chihiro","family":"Munekawa","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism Graduate School of Medical Science Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine  Kyoto Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Go","family":"Horiguchi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics Graduate School of Medical Science Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine  Kyoto Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5243-3137","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Akari","family":"Naito","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Clinical and Translational Research Center University Hospital Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine  Kyoto Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Masahide","family":"Hamaguchi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism Graduate School of Medical Science Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine  Kyoto Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kazushiro","family":"Kurogi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Care Center Panasonic Health Insurance Organisation  Moriguchi Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hiroaki","family":"Murata","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Orthopaedic Surgery Matsushita Memorial Hospital  Moriguchi Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Masato","family":"Ito","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Care Center Panasonic Health Insurance Organisation  Moriguchi Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Akihiro","family":"Obora","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology Asahi University Hospital  Gifu Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Takao","family":"Kojima","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology Asahi University Hospital  Gifu Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hiroshi","family":"Okada","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism Graduate School of Medical Science Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine  Kyoto Japan"},{"name":"Department of Diabetes and Endocrinology Matsushita Memorial Hospital  Moriguchi Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Satoshi","family":"Teramukai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics Graduate School of Medical Science Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine  Kyoto Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michiaki","family":"Fukui","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism Graduate School of Medical Science Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine  Kyoto Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","unstructured":"IDF Diabetes Atlas. 10th ed. 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