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Yet, predicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics remains challenging. Disease outbreaks result from complex nonlinear interactions among a large collection of variables that rarely adhere to the assumptions of parametric regression modeling. We adopted a nonparametric machine learning approach to model wildlife epizootics and population recovery, using the disease system of colonial black\u2010tailed prairie dogs (BTPD, <jats:italic>Cynomys ludovicianus<\/jats:italic>) and sylvatic plague as an example. We synthesized colony data between 2001 and 2020 from eight USDA Forest Service National Grasslands across the range of BTPDs in central North America. We then modeled extinctions due to plague and colony recovery of BTPDs in relation to complex interactions among climate, topoedaphic variables, colony characteristics, and disease history. Extinctions due to plague occurred more frequently when BTPD colonies were spatially clustered, in closer proximity to colonies decimated by plague during the previous year, following cooler than average temperatures the previous summer, and when wetter winter\/springs were preceded by drier summers\/falls. Rigorous cross\u2010validations and spatial predictions indicated that our final models predicted plague outbreaks and colony recovery in BTPD with high accuracy (e.g., AUC generally &gt;0.80). Thus, these spatially explicit models can reliably predict the spatial and temporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics and subsequent population recovery in a highly complex host\u2013pathogen system. Our models can be used to support strategic management planning (e.g., plague mitigation) to optimize benefits of this keystone species to associated wildlife communities and ecosystem functioning. This optimization can reduce conflicts among different landowners and resource managers, as well as economic losses to the ranching industry. More broadly, our big data\u2013model integration approach provides a general framework for spatially explicit forecasting of disease\u2010induced population fluctuations for use in natural resource management decision\u2010making.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/eap.2827","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,27]],"date-time":"2023-02-27T09:48:29Z","timestamp":1677491309000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["A big data\u2013model integration approach for predicting epizootics and population recovery in a keystone species"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"33","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2632-9034","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gabriel M.","family":"Barrile","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Colorado Natural Heritage Program Colorado State University  Fort Collins Colorado USA"},{"name":"Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology Colorado State University  Fort Collins Colorado USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3144-0466","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"David J.","family":"Augustine","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"USDA\u2010Agricultural Research Service  Fort Collins Colorado USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6883-2442","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lauren M.","family":"Porensky","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"USDA\u2010Agricultural Research Service  Fort Collins Colorado USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4563-0199","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Courtney J.","family":"Duchardt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management Oklahoma State University  Stillwater Oklahoma USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3789-3856","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kevin T.","family":"Shoemaker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science University of Nevada  Reno Nevada USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3806-278X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cynthia R.","family":"Hartway","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Wildlife Conservation Society  Bronx New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8076-0736","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Justin D.","family":"Derner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"USDA\u2010Agricultural Research Service  Cheyenne Wyoming USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4710-167X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Elizabeth A.","family":"Hunter","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"U.S. Geological Survey, Virginia Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Conservation Virginia Tech  Blacksburg Virginia USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4701-5923","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ana D.","family":"Davidson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Colorado Natural Heritage Program Colorado State University  Fort Collins Colorado USA"},{"name":"Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology Colorado State University  Fort Collins Colorado USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.102102699"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","first-page":"104","article-title":"The Influence of Sylvatic Plague on North American Wildlife at the Landscape Level, with Special Emphasis on Black\u2010Footed Ferret and Prairie Dog Conservation","volume":"67","author":"Antolin M. 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