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Trophic ecosystem models generally predict a tight coupling between prey and fish predators, such that higher abundance of lower trophic species increases the abundance of higher trophic level predators. This assumes that predator feeding rates are limited by prey availability to some degree. Despite being a key component of predator\u2013prey interactions and multispecies fisheries management, relatively few studies have assessed the impacts of prey availability on predation patterns of mobile, generalist fish predators using spatiotemporal models and local\u2010scale stomach content, predator, and prey data. In this study, we explore the association between local density of key prey and predator stomach contents, and predator\u2013prey spatiotemporal overlap and predation indices, using the Baltic Sea as a case study. We use three decades of spatially resolved biomass and stomach content data on Atlantic cod (\n                    <jats:italic>Gadus morhua<\/jats:italic>\n                    ), and biomass data on three of its key prey: herring (\n                    <jats:italic>Clupea harengus<\/jats:italic>\n                    ), the isopod\n                    <jats:italic>Saduria entomon<\/jats:italic>\n                    , and sprat (\n                    <jats:italic>Sprattus sprattus<\/jats:italic>\n                    ). Using geostatistical generalized linear mixed\u2010effects models fitted to relative biomass density and prey\u2010mass\u2010per\u2010predator\u2010mass, we estimate spatiotemporal trends and annual indices of biomass\u2010 weighted and area\u2010expanded per\u2010capita and population\u2010level predation, predator\u2013prey overlap, and the correlation between these indices. Range shifts have resulted in reduced predator\u2013prey overlap over time, which is now the lowest in three decades. For\n                    <jats:italic>Saduria<\/jats:italic>\n                    , we find an association between prey availability and stomach contents, but not for herring or sprat. Similarly, only in\n                    <jats:italic>Saduria<\/jats:italic>\n                    do we find a positive correlation between population\u2010level predation indices and the spatiotemporal overlap. Although behavioral interactions with pelagic prey are challenging to infer from stomach content and acoustic data due to high mobility leading to fine\u2010scale spatiotemporal mismatch, the weak connection with local\u2010scale availability, and low correlation between population\u2010level predation and spatial overlap, could imply weaker coupling between pelagic prey and cod than previously thought. These findings provide key information on the strength of species interactions, which is crucial for the continued development of multispecies models and ecosystem\u2010based fisheries management.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/eap.70136","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,22]],"date-time":"2025-11-22T04:22:57Z","timestamp":1763785377000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Weak effects of local prey density and spatial overlap on predation intensity in a temperate marine ecosystem"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"35","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3841-4044","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Max","family":"Lindmark","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Aquatic Resources Institute of Marine Research, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences  Lysekil Sweden"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7203-0426","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Christopher A.","family":"Griffiths","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Aquatic Resources Institute of Marine Research, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences  Lysekil Sweden"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4506-4329","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Valerio","family":"Bartolino","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Aquatic Resources Institute of Marine Research, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences  Lysekil Sweden"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1383-6387","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Viktor","family":"Thunell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Aquatic Resources Institute of Marine Research, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences  Lysekil Sweden"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8305-1609","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Federico","family":"Maioli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute of Aquatic Resources Technical University of Denmark  Kongens Lyngby Denmark"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9563-1937","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sean C.","family":"Anderson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada  Nanaimo British Columbia Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7768-1946","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andrea","family":"Belgrano","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Aquatic Resources Institute of Marine Research, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences  Lysekil Sweden"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4910-5236","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Michele","family":"Casini","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Aquatic Resources Institute of Marine Research, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences  Lysekil Sweden"},{"name":"Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences University of Bologna  Bologna Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5507-2595","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Katarzyna","family":"Nadolna\u2010A\u0142tyn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Marine Fisheries Research Institute  Gdynia Poland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4684-9670","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Joanna","family":"Pawlak","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Marine Fisheries Research Institute  Gdynia Poland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7689-4886","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marzenna","family":"Pachur","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Marine Fisheries Research Institute  Gdynia Poland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7943-8851","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marcin","family":"Rakowski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Marine Fisheries Research Institute  Gdynia 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