{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,8]],"date-time":"2026-10-08T10:55:39Z","timestamp":1791456939232,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":92,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,8]],"date-time":"2026-10-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1791417600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":7,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1790812800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ecological Applications"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Many populations of barren\u2010ground caribou (\n                    <jats:italic>Rangifer tarandus<\/jats:italic>\n                    ) have declined or are declining, which is concerning given their ecological role in Arctic ecosystems and their societal role in northern communities. Insect harassment is an important driver of the behavior, energetics, and demographic rates of caribou, and yet, due to challenges in predicting harassment, there is limited understanding of how it is responding to changing Arctic conditions. We investigated environmental correlates of mosquito (Culicidae) and oestrid fly (Oestridae) harassment for the Porcupine caribou herd, with the aim of improving our ability to predict harassment. We collected field observations of mosquito activity and used video collars to detect oestrid fly activity across the summer range, which spans the Alaska\u2013Yukon border. Additionally, we documented the composition of harassing insects collected in malaise traps using DNA metabarcoding. We developed predictive mosquito and oestrid fly harassment models using remotely sensed variables relevant to the insects' biology within a nonlinear modeling framework. We then used the top mosquito and oestrid fly models to hindcast predictions of harassment during 1950\u20132024 and investigate long\u2010term changes in severity and phenology. The top mosquito harassment model included wind speed, temperature, days since snowmelt, precipitation, topographic position, and soil moisture. The top oestrid fly harassment model included temperature, cumulative growing degree days, and time of day. Harassment of both insects was limited at low temperatures (&lt;10\u00b0C), with mosquitoes being additionally limited at high temperatures (&gt;22\u00b0C) and wind speeds (&gt;7\u2009m\/s). The phenology of mosquito and oestrid fly harassment exhibited curvilinear trends across the summer, peaking in midsummer based on the number of days since snowmelt and cumulative growing degree days, respectively. Mosquito harassment also increased with greater soil moisture, precipitation, and at lower relative elevations. Hindcasting indicated that insect harassment notably intensified and advanced over time. Intensifying harassment could decrease caribou foraging opportunities and body condition, and advancing harassment is likely to increasingly overlap with the calving season when calves are most vulnerable. Our results highlight climate\u2010driven changes in insect harassment and provide improved indices for predicting harassment in the Arctic for future applications.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/eap.70319","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,8]],"date-time":"2026-10-08T10:32:12Z","timestamp":1791455532000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Improving predictions of insect harassment for barren\u2010ground caribou in the Arctic"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"36","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6603-1705","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"William H.","family":"Hein","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Natural Resource Sciences Macdonald Campus, McGill University  Ste\u2010Anne\u2010de\u2010Bellevue Quebec Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Murray M.","family":"Humphries","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Natural Resource Sciences Macdonald Campus, McGill University  Ste\u2010Anne\u2010de\u2010Bellevue Quebec Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5392-7676","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Heather E.","family":"Johnson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center  Anchorage Alaska USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6272-9302","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gabrielle L.","family":"Coulombe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center  Anchorage Alaska USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael J.","family":"Suitor","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fish and Wildlife Branch, Environment Yukon, Yukon Government  Whitehorse Yukon Territories Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-016-1411-6"},{"issue":"5","key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1494","DOI":"10.1093\/jme\/tjac088","article-title":"Contributions of CO2\u2010Baited Malaise\u2010Type Traps to the Knowledge of Hematophagous and Oestrid Flies (Diptera: Oestridae) Parasitizing Cervid Hosts","volume":"59","author":"Anderson J. R.","year":"2022","journal-title":"Journal of Medical Entomology"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"291","DOI":"10.7557\/2.10.3.870","article-title":"The Method by which Cephenemyia trompe (Modeer) Larvae Invade Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus)","volume":"10","author":"Anderson J. R.","year":"1990","journal-title":"Rangifer"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.7557\/2.18.1.1369","article-title":"Do Reindeer Aggregate on Snow Patches to Reduce Harassment by Parasitic Flies or to Thermoregulate?","volume":"18","author":"Anderson J. R.","year":"1998","journal-title":"Rangifer"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01997439"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5962\/p.363788"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","volume-title":"Arctic Climate Change Update 2021: Key Trends and Impacts. 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