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Demographic studies across more than a decade are extremely rare but allow for the effects of threats to be observed and assessed within the context of interannual environmental variation. We collected demographic data on the Threatened plant <jats:italic>Cirsium pitcheri<\/jats:italic> in two sites from 2011\u20132022. These sites were chosen because one exhibited the presence of non\u2010native seed predators while the other did not, and we hypothesized that we would see declines and potentially extinction of the population threatened by predation. Over the course of our study, we observed additional threats, such as human trampling and high lake levels, which led to significant erosion, sand burial, and storm damage to plants. We find high interannual variation in vital rates and population growth rates for both populations, which mask the overall effects of predation. We observed dramatic declines in plant survivorship and population growth rates in both sites in the years with high lake levels. We conclude that high lake levels, which are expected to become more frequent with climate change, pose a significant threat to all near\u2010shore populations of <jats:italic>C. pitcheri<\/jats:italic>.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.10870","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,15]],"date-time":"2024-02-15T08:19:28Z","timestamp":1707985168000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Demography and threats to population growth of <i>Cirsium pitcheri<\/i>, a threatened dune plant, in Wisconsin"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3727-9178","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pati","family":"Vitt","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Natural Resources Lake County Forest Preserve District  Libertyville Illinois USA"},{"name":"Program in Plant Biology and Conservation Northwestern University  Evanston Illinois USA"},{"name":"Negaunee Institute for Plant Conservation Science and Action, Chicago Botanic Garden  Glencoe Illinois USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"E. Binney","family":"Girdler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology Kalamazoo College  Kalamazoo Michigan USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jeffrey M.","family":"Gorra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Negaunee Institute for Plant Conservation Science and Action, Chicago Botanic Garden  Glencoe Illinois USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0318-1567","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tiffany M.","family":"Knight","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Community Ecology Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research \u2013 UFZ  Halle (Saale) Germany"},{"name":"German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle\u2010Jena\u2010Leipzig  Leipzig Germany"},{"name":"Institute of Biology Martin Luther University Halle\u2010Wittenberg  Halle (Saale) Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kayri","family":"Havens","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Program in Plant Biology and Conservation Northwestern University  Evanston Illinois USA"},{"name":"Negaunee Institute for Plant Conservation Science and Action, Chicago Botanic Garden  Glencoe Illinois USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","volume-title":"Matrix population models","author":"Caswell H.","year":"2001"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-021-21977-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pld.2016.01.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","volume-title":"COSEWIC assessment and update status report on Pitcher's thistle Cirsium pitcheri in Canada","author":"COSEWIC","year":"2010"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2010.01540.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2745.12523"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-28893-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/499438"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1139\/cjb-2012-0232"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gecco.2020.e00945"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.7109"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-013-0840-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","unstructured":"Groppe K.(1990).Larinus minutusGyll. 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