{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,19]],"date-time":"2026-06-19T05:25:10Z","timestamp":1781846710011,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":68,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,29]],"date-time":"2024-06-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1719619200000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,29]],"date-time":"2024-06-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1719619200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000202","name":"U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000202","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000203","name":"U.S. Geological Survey","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000203","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ecology and Evolution"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Access to high\u2010quality food is critical for long\u2010distance migrants to provide energy for migration and arrival at breeding grounds in good condition. We studied effects of changing abundance and availability of a marine food, common eelgrass (<jats:italic>Zostera marina<\/jats:italic> L.), on an arctic\u2010breeding, migratory goose, black brant (<jats:italic>Brant bernicla nigricans<\/jats:italic> Lawrence 1846), at a key non\u2010breeding site, Bah\u00eda San Quint\u00edn, Mexico. Eelgrass, the primary food of brant, is consumed when exposed by the tide or within reach from the water's surface. Using an individual\u2010based model, we predicted effects of observed changes (1991\u20132013) in parameters influencing food abundance and availability: eelgrass biomass (abundance), eelgrass shoot length (availability, as longer shoots more within reach), brant population size (availability, as competition greater with more birds), and sea level (availability, as less food within reach when sea level higher). The model predicted that the ability to gain enough energy to migrate was most strongly influenced by eelgrass biomass (threshold January biomass for migration\u2009=\u200960\u2009g\u2009m<jats:sup>\u22122<\/jats:sup> dry mass). Conversely, annual variation in population size (except for 1998), was relatively low, and variation in eelgrass shoot length and sea level were not strongly related to ability to migrate. We used observed data on brant body mass at Bah\u00eda San Quint\u00edn and annual survival to test for effects of eelgrass biomass in the real system. The lowest observed values of body mass and survival were in years when biomass was below 60\u2009g\u2009m<jats:sup>\u22122<\/jats:sup>, although in some years of low biomass body mass and\/or survival was higher. This suggests that the real birds may have some capacity to compensate to meet their energy demands when eelgrass biomass is low. We discuss consequences for brant population trends and conservation.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.11619","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,29]],"date-time":"2024-06-29T04:29:24Z","timestamp":1719635364000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Predicting the response of a long\u2010distance migrant to changing environmental conditions in winter"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2592-4421","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"R. A.","family":"Stillman","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology Bournemouth University  Poole UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"E. M.","family":"Rivers","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology Bournemouth University  Poole UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"W.","family":"Gilkerson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Merkel &amp; Associates, Inc.  San Diego California USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9170-6129","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"K. A.","family":"Wood","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Wildfowl &amp; Wetlands Trust  Slimbridge, Gloucestershire UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"P.","family":"Clausen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecoscience \u2010 Wildlife Ecology Aarhus University  Aarhus C Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4098-9154","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"C.","family":"Deane","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology and Wildlife University of Alaska Fairbanks  Fairbanks Alaska USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"D. H.","family":"Ward","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center 4210 University Drive  Anchorage Alaska USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","first-page":"193","volume-title":"El Ni\u00f1o: Historical and paleoclimatic aspects of the southern oscillation","author":"Anderson R. Y.","year":"1992"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/375680"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2013JC009189"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ecs2.3632"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3770(02)00076-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3770(03)00012-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43017-021-00199-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2981\/wlb.2000.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","volume-title":"The R book","author":"Crawley M. J.","year":"2013"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","volume-title":"Plan conservaci\u00f3n del ganso de collar en el noroeste de M\u00e9xico","author":"Danemann","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3160\/0038-3872(2006)105[113:TROISS]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/4088149"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","first-page":"65","article-title":"A simple sequentially rejective multiple test procedure","volume":"6","author":"Holm S.","year":"1979","journal-title":"Scandinavian Journal of Statistics"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7773\/cm.v11i3.478"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-048X.2008.04332.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02691698"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2656.2006.01140.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3801483"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_20_1","first-page":"242","volume-title":"Management and biology of Pacific flyway geese","author":"Kramer G. W.","year":"1979"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jwmg.21284"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jwmg.21595"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.13623"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2173\/bow.brant.01"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2193\/2006-051"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.282.5395.1884"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3770(99)00031-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/condor\/108.3.661"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_29_1","unstructured":"Olson S. M. C.(2022).Pacific Flyway Data Book 2021: Vancouver Washington U.S. Department of Interior Fish and Wildlife Service Division of Migratory Bird Management."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1641\/0006-3568(2006)56[987:AGCFSE]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2016GL071515"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_32_1","volume-title":"Pacific brant mid\u2010winter ground surveys in Mexico, 2022","author":"Palacios E.","year":"2021"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0006-3207(03)00088-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jwmg.666"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_35_1","unstructured":"Pinheiro J. Bates D. DebRoy S. Sarkar D. Heisterkamp S. &Van Willigen B.(2023).Package \u2018nlme\u2019. Linear and nonlinear mixed effects models. Version 3.1\u2013163.https:\/\/CRAN.R\u2010project.org\/package=nlme"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.anbehav.2005.09.014"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_37_1","volume-title":"R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Version 4.2.2","author":"R Core Team","year":"2022"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1525\/auk.2012.11249"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-3800(94)00055-M"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3809325"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_41_1","first-page":"49","article-title":"Current status and recent dynamics of the black brant Branta bernicla breeding population","volume":"44","author":"Sedinger J. S.","year":"1993","journal-title":"Wild"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1525\/cond.2011.100218"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jwmg.21620"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3996\/052019-JFWM-037"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/662165"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/04-1013"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/11-1083.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.288.5473.2040"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2008.04.014"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1469-185X.2009.00106.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ecs2.3405"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/ES14\u201000455.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02803368"},{"issue":"106","key":"e_1_2_8_54_1","first-page":"910","article-title":"Large\u2010scale erosion driven by intertidal eelgrass loss in an estuarine environment","volume":"243","author":"Walter R. K.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_55_1","unstructured":"Ward D. H.(2022a).Point sampling data for eelgrass (Zostera marina) and widgeongrass (Ruppia marina) abundance in embayments of the north Pacific coast of Baja California Mexico (ver 2.0 April 2023): U.S. Geological Survey data release.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5066\/P9H4LBP3"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ward D. H.(2022b).Abundance of eelgrass(Zostera marina)at key Black Brant(Branta bernicla nigricans)wintering sites along the northern Pacific coast of Baja California Mexico. (U.S. Geological Survey Open\u2010File Report 2022\u20131078) 15 p.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3133\/ofr20221078","DOI":"10.3133\/ofr20221078"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_57_1","unstructured":"Ward D. H.(2024).Data from black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) overwintering in three lagoons along the Baja California Peninsula Mexico (ver 2.0 January 2024): U.S. Geological Survey data release.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5066\/F7T43R88"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jwmg.21388"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02803661"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2005.00942.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3802184"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/condor\/106.2.263"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0905620106"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_64_1","volume-title":"Aerial photographic surveys of brant colonies on the Yukon\u2013Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, 2009 Migratory bird management","author":"Wilson H. M.","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_65_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1368986"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_66_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2018.12.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_67_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10750-012-1007-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_68_1","first-page":"199","volume-title":"World atlas of seagrasses","author":"Wyllie\u2010Echeverria S.","year":"2003"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_69_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10811-009-9408-y"}],"container-title":["Ecology and Evolution"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/ece3.11619","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/ece3.11619","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,24]],"date-time":"2025-07-24T01:26:11Z","timestamp":1753320371000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/ece3.11619"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,29]]},"references-count":68,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,7]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/ece3.11619"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/ece3.11619","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["2045-7758","2045-7758"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2045-7758","type":"print"},{"value":"2045-7758","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,29]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2024-02-04","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-06-10","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-06-29","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e11619"}}