{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,11]],"date-time":"2026-07-11T03:20:25Z","timestamp":1783740025572,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":62,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,31]],"date-time":"2025-08-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1756598400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001659","name":"Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CO 2787\/1\u20101"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CO 2787\/1\u20101"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001659","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000202","name":"U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["GLRI (F21AC00010\u201000)"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GLRI (F21AC00010\u201000)"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000202","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000155","name":"Division of Environmental Biology","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DEB 0516058"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DEB 0516058"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000155","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ecology and Evolution"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title><jats:p>Changes in population responses to climate are usually studied at broad spatial grains, such as across species ranges. Only a handful of studies have investigated how small\u2010scale variation, for example driven by soil conditions and microtopography, can mediate the responses of population vital rates to climate. Here, we examine responses of <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\"><jats:italic>Cirsium pitcheri<\/jats:italic><\/jats:styled-content> vital rates to climate across five subpopulations occurring in coastal dune locations that range from the foredune to the backdune. We consider five vital rates: seedling survival, adult survival, growth, flowering probability, and the size of new adults. We use generalized linear mixed models to quantify vital rate variation across the dune gradient. Then, we analyze the estimates to quantify the so\u2010called \u201cportfolio effect\u201d: the stabilizing effect of spatial asynchrony among the five subpopulations on the population as a whole. Finally, we use a sliding window approach to test whether climate drivers contribute to the portfolio effect. We found evidence of substantial portfolio effects across the dune gradient. These effects arise in part from the opposite responses of vital rates to climatic drivers in our five subpopulations. Strikingly, seedling survival, adult survival, and growth were negatively correlated with precipitation in the subpopulation closer to shore and positively correlated with precipitation in the subpopulation farthest from the shore. We explain this pattern by noting that storms that bring precipitation to the dune system may also cause disturbance and sand burial that negatively affect plants close to the water's edge. Such climate\u2010mediated portfolio effects should have a stabilizing effect on the population abundance over time, with implications for population projections and for assessments of range\u2010wide vulnerability of rare plant species. We call for further scrutiny of variation in small\u2010scale responses to climate and for further empirical tests, especially in coastal dune environments.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.72080","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,1]],"date-time":"2025-09-01T00:15:22Z","timestamp":1756685722000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Small\u2010Scale Stabilizing Effect of Asynchrony in Vital Rate Responses to Climate in an Imperiled Dune Thistle"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-7052-7513","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"E. Binney","family":"Girdler","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology Kalamazoo College  Kalamazoo Michigan USA"},{"name":"University of Michigan Biological Station  Pellston Michigan USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0318-1567","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tiffany M.","family":"Knight","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Community Ecology Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research\u2014UFZ  Halle (Saale) Germany"},{"name":"German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle\u2010Jena\u2010Leipzig  Leipzig Germany"},{"name":"Institute of Biology Martin Luther University Halle\u2010Wittenberg  Halle (Saale) Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sanne M.","family":"Evers","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Community Ecology Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research\u2014UFZ  Halle (Saale) Germany"},{"name":"German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle\u2010Jena\u2010Leipzig  Leipzig Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Aldo","family":"Compagnoni","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle\u2010Jena\u2010Leipzig  Leipzig Germany"},{"name":"Institute of Biology Martin Luther University Halle\u2010Wittenberg  Halle (Saale) Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Roxanne","family":"Leberger","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Community Ecology Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research\u2014UFZ  Halle (Saale) Germany"},{"name":"German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle\u2010Jena\u2010Leipzig  Leipzig Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Julie E.","family":"Marik","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology East Carolina University  Greenville North Carolina USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Samara I.","family":"Hamz\u00e9","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology East Carolina University  Greenville North Carolina USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Claudia L.","family":"Jolls","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Michigan Biological Station  Pellston Michigan USA"},{"name":"Department of Biology East Carolina University  Greenville North Carolina USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ecy.1738"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/fee.2204"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/14\u20100266.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0167980"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v067.i01"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","unstructured":"Beguer\u00eda S. andS. M.Vicente\u2010Serrano.2017.\u201cSPEI: Calculation of the Standardised Precipitation\u2010Evapotranspiration Index.\u201dCRAN.https:\/\/github.com\/sbegueria\/SPEI."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461\u20100248.2011.01736.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.12688"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2007.0030\u20101299.16034.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2007.0951"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","volume-title":"Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information\u2010Theoretic Approach","author":"Burnham K. 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D.1984.\u201cPopulation Biology and Genetic Organization inCirsium pitcheri an Endemic Thistle.\u201dPh.D. dissertation University of Kansas."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1461\u20100248.1999.21048.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511623325.011"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_40_1","unstructured":"McEachern K.1992.\u201cDisturbance Dynamics of Pitcher's Thistle (Cirsium pitcheri) Populations in Great Lakes Sand Dune Landscapes.\u201dPh.D. dissertation University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison.https:\/\/pubs.er.usgs.gov\/publication\/96578."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169\u20105347(03)00162\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gecco.2018.e00445"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365\u20102745.2011.01852.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/nph.15565"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.12515"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365\u20102486.2011.02564.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/icb\/icw016"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3998\/glbot.6200"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_49_1","volume-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing.","author":"R Core Team","year":"2021"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_50_1","volume-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. 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