{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,29]],"date-time":"2026-09-29T14:01:06Z","timestamp":1790690466932,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":57,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,17]],"date-time":"2026-02-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1771286400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":16,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,1]],"date-time":"2026-02-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1769904000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ecology and Evolution"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Biodiversity monitoring at large spatial and temporal scales is essential for informing conservation policies. The International Waterbird Census (IWC) is one of the longest\u2010running global citizen science monitoring schemes, providing critical information to several international agreements. However, analyzing IWC count data poses statistical challenges, including zero inflation, overdispersion, spatial autocorrelation, and missing data. While various modeling approaches have been used to estimate waterbird population size and trends, their ability to handle these issues and the implications for trend estimates remain unassessed. Using IWC count data from five species in the East Atlantic Flyway, we compared four modeling approaches: TRIM (TRends and Indices for Monitoring data), LORI (Low\u2010Rank Interactions), and two generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) with simple or optimized parametrizations. We benchmarked their performance in addressing zero inflation, overdispersion, and spatial autocorrelation across different realistic sampling designs (i.e., alternative dataset configurations). Our results highlight significant limitations in commonly used methods. Simple GLMMs, TRIM, and LORI generally failed to mitigate both zero inflation and overdispersion. In contrast, optimized GLMMs improved model convergence and better addressed these issues by selecting appropriate probability distributions. However, no single distribution performed consistently well across species and sampling designs. Spatial structures were effective in reducing spatial autocorrelation in most cases. We recommend a careful species\u2010specific selection of statistical methods when analyzing count data, as inadequate models may misrepresent population trends and thus misguide conservation efforts. Future research should explore the integration of advanced hierarchical and spatio\u2010temporal models to improve inference from large\u2010scale citizen science datasets.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.72902","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,18]],"date-time":"2026-02-18T03:03:11Z","timestamp":1771383791000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Recommendations for Improving the Modeling of Wintering Waterbird Population Sizes and Trends"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"16","author":[{"given":"U.","family":"Godeau","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Office Fran\u00e7ais de la Biodiversit\u00e9, Tour du Valat, Le Sambuc  Arles France"},{"name":"Tour du Valat, Research Institute for the Conservation of Mediterranean Wetlands  Arles France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"E.","family":"Gaget","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Tour du Valat, Research Institute for the Conservation of Mediterranean Wetlands  Arles France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"L.","family":"Dami","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Tour du Valat, Research Institute for the Conservation of Mediterranean Wetlands  Arles France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"K.","family":"Baddour","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Tour du Valat, Research Institute for the Conservation of Mediterranean Wetlands  Arles France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"D. O. S. O.","family":"Daf","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Parc National du Diawling \u2010 Minist\u00e8re de L'environnement et du D\u00e9veloppement Durable  Nouakchott Mauritania"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"M.","family":"Dakki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"GREPOM\/BirdLife Morocco  Sale Morocco"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"T.","family":"Frost","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery  Thetford UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"M.","family":"Hornman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology  Nijmegen the Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"H.","family":"Kolberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Tourism, Private Bag  Windhoek Namibia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"S.\u2010H.","family":"Lorentsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Norwegian Institute for Nature Research  Trondheim Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"B.","family":"Molina","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Sociedad Espa\u00f1ola de Ornitolog\u00eda (SEO\/BirdLife)  Madrid Spain"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"F. E. F. F.","family":"Moniz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto da Conserva\u00e7\u00e3o da Natureza e das Florestas, IP (ICNF), Centro de Estudos de Migra\u00e7\u00f5es e Prote\u00e7\u00e3o de Aves (CEMPA)  Lisboa Portugal"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"P.","family":"Defos du Rau","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Office Fran\u00e7ais de la Biodiversit\u00e9, Tour du Valat, Le Sambuc  Arles France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","unstructured":"AEWA Secretariat.2013.\u201cReport of the 5th Session of the Meeting of the Parties (MOP5) to the African\u2010Eurasian Migratory Waterbird Agreement (AEWA) 14\u201318 May 2012 La Rochelle France.\u201d"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature25139"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Anderson S. 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