{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]],"date-time":"2026-07-17T04:05:22Z","timestamp":1784261122869,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":88,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,4]],"date-time":"2026-06-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1780531200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":3,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,1]],"date-time":"2026-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1780272000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100030714","name":"North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100030714","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ecology and Evolution"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Managing species in an uncertain future is a reality for natural resource decision makers. Climate change is expected to exacerbate threats such as habitat loss and disease, and cause phenological mismatches, but there is uncertainty in the magnitude of these effects. Amphibians are among the most threatened taxa on earth, and most species in North America are uniquely tied to water availability for breeding, larval development, thermal refugia, and food availability. Changes in water availability and temperature may result in phenological mismatches with one or more of these processes. Thus, quantifying the dependency of amphibians to water on the landscape is critical to understanding how species may respond, as well as understanding the interplay with other threats, such as disease. We developed a dynamic co\u2010occurrence occupancy model to explore the effects of climate change on the breeding occurrence of boreal toads (\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>Anaxyrus boreas<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    ) and the amphibian chytrid fungus (\n                    <jats:italic>Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis<\/jats:italic>\n                    , Bd) in the southern Rocky Mountains (SRM). We derived novel covariates to test hypotheses related to multi\u2010generational impacts of climate on the dynamics of both boreal toad breeding and Bd. We report estimates of current (2001\u20132019) and future (2055\u20132069) occupancy under a range of plausible climate scenarios. The probability of boreal toad breeding occurrence at a site in the SRM declined &gt;\u200940% from 2001 to 2019, and further declines are likely under future scenarios, particularly as active season length increases. To help integrate this information into management, we developed a web\u2010based decision support tool to summarize predicted future hydrological and occupancy conditions.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.73767","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,4]],"date-time":"2026-06-04T22:14:07Z","timestamp":1780611247000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Disease, Drought, and Warming: A Triple Threat to a Declining High\u2010Elevation Amphibian"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6346-7455","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Amanda M.","family":"Kissel","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center  Fort Collins Colorado USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"L. Mae","family":"Lacey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Conservation Science Partners  Truckee California USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7138-0774","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Viorel D.","family":"Popescu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, School of Professional Studies Columbia University  New York New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marissa A.","family":"Dyck","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Environmental Studies University of Victoria  Victoria British Columbia Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Larissa L.","family":"Bailey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Graduate Degree Program in Ecology Colorado State University  Fort Collins Colorado USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5498-3132","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Erin","family":"Muths","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center  Fort Collins Colorado USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.3413"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.2312"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.3468"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0064347"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.16454"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","unstructured":"Alder J. R. andS. W.Hostetler.2021.\u201cCMIP5 MACAv2\u2010METDATA Monthly Water Balance Model Projections 1950\u20132099 for the Contiguous United States.\u201d U.S. Geological Survey Data Release.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5066\/P9B2O22V."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/dao068051"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1751\u20100813.2004.tb11137.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365\u20102656.13919"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v080.i01"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/eco.2354"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2112235118"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/06\u20100896"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ecs2.70278"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_1","volume-title":"Boreal Toad Breeding and Translocation Site Monitoring Database","author":"Colorado Parks and Wildlife","year":"2024"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10393\u2010016\u20101117\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_1","volume-title":"Conservation Plan for the Boreal Toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) in the Southern Rocky Mountains","author":"Crockett H.","year":"2023"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/1438\u2010390X.12044"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_20_1","volume-title":"NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Global 1 Arc Second V003","author":"Earth Science Data Systems N.","year":"2025"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/2041\u2010210X.13117"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.8379"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0035038"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/conl.12393"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/acv.12877"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep25625"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.13390"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ecs2.1789"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2020.2273"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2016.02.040"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365\u20102664.14310"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2021.152735"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_33_1","unstructured":"Hegewisch K. 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M.Lacey V. D.Popescu M. A.Dyck andC.Littlefield.2025.\u201cFinal Report: A Framework for Guiding Management Decisions for Amphibians in an Uncertain Future North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center.\u201dhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.21429\/7558\u2010zz29."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecochg.2023.100081"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ecs2.70210"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_46_1","volume-title":"A Decision Support Tool for Assessing Current and Future Occupancy Trends for Boreal Toads in the Southern Rocky Mountains","author":"Lacey L. 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