{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,20]],"date-time":"2026-08-20T09:28:18Z","timestamp":1787218098179,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":54,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,19]],"date-time":"2026-07-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1784419200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":18,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,1]],"date-time":"2026-07-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1782864000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012166","name":"National Key Research and Development Program of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2024YFC2607600"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2024YFC2607600"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012166","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ecology and Evolution"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>Cirsium vulgare<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    (Asteraceae) is an invasive plant species whose distribution is expanding globally. It was recently recorded in Yunnan Province, China, far south of its previous known range in China, necessitating a timely invasion risk assessment. This study aimed to provide a more comprehensive assessment of its potential distribution in China under climate change scenarios. We used an optimized\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">MaxEnt<\/jats:styled-content>\n                    model combined with a Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface (\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">MESS<\/jats:styled-content>\n                    ) analysis, based on current global occurrences and 52 newly collected field occurrence records from Yunnan Province. The model demonstrated robust predictive performance (\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">AUC<\/jats:styled-content>\n                    \u2009=\u20090.971) and identified temperature seasonality (Bio4, contribution rate 42.8%) and precipitation seasonality (Bio15, 20.0%) as the two main influencing factors. The species exhibited a dual environmental response pattern that would allow it to adapt to mild, low\u2010seasonality settings of southwestern highlands, while also enduring the harsh, strongly continental climate of the northwestern inland. Thus, facilitating a multi\u2010center distribution pattern including Yunnan, Xinjiang and Taiwan. Under future climate change scenarios, the model showed\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>C. vulgare<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    displayed a rare inverse elevational shift. There was a significant centroid shifting northwestward and a sharp decline in elevation from the current high\u2010altitude mountainous region (4900\u2009m) to the edge of the Qaidam Basin (3100\u2009m). This suggests that\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>C. vulgare<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    populations are potentially able to track high\u2010seasonality climates to offset warming impacts caused by climate change scenarios. Although the total suitable area of\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>C. vulgare<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    in China is projected to contract in the future, the Yunnan\u2013Guizhou Plateau and Xinjiang's Ili River Valley remain stable climate refugia. Therefore, this study recommends considering these core distribution areas as primary priorities for prevention and control of\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>C. vulgare<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    and highlights the colonization risk to oasis agricultural regions via the northwestern dispersal corridors.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.74028","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,19]],"date-time":"2026-07-19T22:53:46Z","timestamp":1784501626000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Prediction of the Potential Distribution of\n                    <i>Cirsium vulgare<\/i>\n                    in China Under Climate Change Scenarios Based on Its First Recorded Occurrences in Southern China"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"16","author":[{"given":"Rongtao","family":"Hu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Agriculture Yunnan University  Kunming China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Biological Invasions, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, Agricultural Environment and Resource Research Institute Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences  Kunming China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Green Prevention and Control of Agricultural Transboundary Pests of Yunnan Province, Agricultural Environment and Resource Research Institute Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences  Kunming China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wei","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Ethnology and Sociology Minzu University of China  Beijing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhijie","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Agriculture Yunnan University  Kunming China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Biological Invasions, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, Agricultural Environment and Resource Research Institute Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences  Kunming China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qiurui","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Agriculture Yunnan University  Kunming China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Biological Invasions, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, Agricultural Environment and Resource Research Institute Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences  Kunming China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David Roy","family":"Clements","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology Trinity Western University  Langley British Columbia Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael Denny","family":"Day","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Primary Industries  Brisbane Queensland Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2593-7284","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shicai","family":"Shen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Biological Invasions, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, Agricultural Environment and Resource Research Institute Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences  Kunming China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Green Prevention and Control of Agricultural Transboundary Pests of Yunnan Province, Agricultural Environment and Resource Research Institute Yunnan Academy of 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