{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,9]],"date-time":"2026-09-09T02:07:36Z","timestamp":1788919656697,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,15]],"date-time":"2026-08-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1786752000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":14,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,1]],"date-time":"2026-08-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785542400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ecology and Evolution"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Climate change imposes varying pressures on the potential distribution of invasive alien plant species, depending on their specific ecological strategies and physiological tolerances. In this study, the projected potential ranges within Turkey of the hydrophilic\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>Eichhornia crassipes<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    (water hyacinth) and the markedly xerophytic\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>Solanum elaeagnifolium<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    (silverleaf nightshade) were compared under several CMIP6 climate scenarios: SSP2\u20104.5, SSP3\u20107.0 and SSP5\u20108.5. Species distribution models were produced using an ensemble modelling framework combining Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), Random Forest (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) in the R statistical computing environment, yielding excellent predictive performance for both taxa. Model outputs revealed strongly divergent, indeed opposing, spatial responses between the two species. Rather than persisting stably within its current range,\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>E. crassipes<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    is projected to undergo a severe contraction of its suitable habitat across all emission scenarios, as increasing drought severity and the degradation of wetland habitats progressively outweigh any potential benefit from milder winters, restricting the species to highly fragmented coastal micro\u2010refugia. In contrast,\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>S. elaeagnifolium<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    displays a more complex, non\u2010linear trajectory: an initial, pronounced expansion into the interior agricultural basins of the Aegean hinterland and Southeastern Anatolia through the mid\u2010century, followed by a marked contraction by 2100 as extreme thermal and arid conditions exceed the species' physiological tolerance limits, particularly under the higher emission scenarios. These results demonstrate that climate change does not confer a uniform range\u2010expansion advantage on invasive taxa. Instead,\u00a0effective management requires dynamic, species\u2010specific strategies\u2014including early warning systems, strict quarantine measures, and spatially explicit, climate\u2010informed risk mapping that account for both the timing and directionality of range shifts.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.74172","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,15]],"date-time":"2026-08-15T07:14:25Z","timestamp":1786778065000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Comparative Distribution Projections of Hydrophilic and Xerophytic Invasive Species in Turkey Under\n                    <scp>CMIP6<\/scp>\n                    Climate Scenarios"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8765-0326","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nihat","family":"Tursun","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Plant Protection, Faculty of Agriculture Malatya Turgut \u00d6zal University  Battalgazi Malatya T\u00fcrkiye"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5937-9244","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"\u0130lhan","family":"\u00dcremi\u015f","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Plant Protection, Faculty of Agriculture Hatay Mustafa Kemal University  Antakya Hatay T\u00fcrkiye"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1002-8958","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Soner","family":"Soylu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Plant Protection, Faculty of Agriculture Hatay Mustafa Kemal University  Antakya Hatay T\u00fcrkiye"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7137-2616","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ahmet","family":"Uluda\u011f","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Plant Protection, Faculty of Agriculture \u00c7anakkale Onsekiz Mart University  \u00c7anakkale T\u00fcrkiye"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365\u20102664.2006.01214.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461\u20100248.2011.01610.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2006.09.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.12344"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2013.12.012"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558\u2010018\u20100299\u20102"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/110137"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.12208"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1472\u20104642.2010.00725.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365\u20102338.2007.01112.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u20109\u20101937\u20102016"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.5086"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3832\/ifor3706\u2010014"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","unstructured":"GBIF.org.2026.\u201cGBIF Occurrence Download.\u201dData Set.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15468\/dl.cftkt7."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_16_2","unstructured":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15468\/dl.4fuwyv."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1523\u20101739.2008.00951.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_19_1","unstructured":"Hijmans R. J.2023.\u201cterra: Spatial Data Analysis.\u201dR Package version 1.7\u201055.https:\/\/CRAN.R\u2010project.org\/package=terra."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_20_1","unstructured":"Hijmans R. J. S.Phillips J.Leathwick andJ.Elith.2017.\u201cdismo: Species Distribution Modeling.\u201dR Package version 1.3\u201014.https:\/\/CRAN.R\u2010project.org\/package=dismo."},{"issue":"2","key":"e_1_2_11_21_1","first-page":"75","article-title":"Distribution Patterns and ISSR PCR Optimisation of Invasive Plant \n                     Eichhornia crassipes\n                   in Asi River\/Turkey","volume":"10","author":"Hiloo\u011flu M.","year":"2017","journal-title":"Biological Diversity and Conservation"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_22_1","volume-title":"Global Assessment Eport on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services of the Inter Governmental Science\u2010Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services","author":"IPBES","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_23_1","volume-title":"Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","author":"IPCC","year":"2021"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actao.2007.02.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0120054"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0906\u20107590.2005.03957.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2017MS001217"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2011.07.011"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.23943\/princeton\/9780691136868.001.0001"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1215933"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_32_1","volume-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing","author":"R Core Team","year":"2023"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/wre.12556"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2011.06.025"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.3287615"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3391\/ai.2008.3.1.8"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0409902102"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tursun N. \u0130.\u00dcremi\u015f S.Soylu andA.Uluda\u011f.2026.\u201cComparative Distribution Projections of Hydrophilic and Xerophytic Invasive Species in Turkey Under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios.\u201dZenodo.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.21259379[Data Set].","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.74172"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18016\/ksutarimdoga.vi.1332554"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/epp.12096"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365\u20102427.2009.02294.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/416389a"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejrh.2024.101707"}],"container-title":["Ecology and Evolution"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/ece3.74172","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/ece3.74172","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/ece3.74172","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,9]],"date-time":"2026-09-09T02:04:21Z","timestamp":1788919461000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/ece3.74172"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,8]]},"references-count":43,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/ece3.74172"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/ece3.74172","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["2045-7758","2045-7758"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2045-7758","type":"print"},{"value":"2045-7758","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,8]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2026-04-16","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-07-31","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-08-15","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e74172"}}