{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,8]],"date-time":"2026-10-08T02:51:57Z","timestamp":1791427917820,"version":"4.3.3"},"reference-count":118,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]],"date-time":"2026-08-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1787788800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]],"date-time":"2026-08-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1787788800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ecology and Evolution"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Macro\u2010evolutionary and ecological drivers of extinction risk in different organismal groups are not well understood. Some studies have indicated that certain clades may be predisposed to extinction. Through a comparative phylogenetic framework, we assessed whether there are significant evolutionary and environmental correlates of extinction risk for a species rich plant group (Pomaderreae tribe; Rhamnaceae). We focused on the southwest Australian global biodiversity hotspot, where most species of Pomaderreae occur. We also applied 10 different machine learning models to predict and impute data for species that lack flowering time information (18\/87 taxa). The\n                    <jats:italic>k<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2010nearest neighbours algorithm was selected as the best model among the evaluated machine learning approaches because it demonstrated competitive predictive performance, strong recall performance and consistent monthly accuracy for our dataset. We show that larger genera have more threatened species but these species are not over\u2010represented in larger genera. We also show that extinction risk is uncoupled with evolutionary history (diversification, speciation, extinction rates and lineage age). Shorter flowering periods and temperature variables (WorldClim) were shown to be significant correlates to extinction risk, but polyploidy and precipitation variables were not, even when accounting for phylogenetic relatedness. These findings suggest that threatened species would be more vulnerable to future climate change from their limited ability to respond. The decoupling of diversification rates and lineage age with current extinction risk suggests drivers of extinction risk are multifaceted and are likely predominantly driven by present\u2010day threats rather than from the past.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.74233","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]],"date-time":"2026-08-27T09:58:35Z","timestamp":1787824715000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Environmental and Evolutionary Correlates of Extinction Risk in a Global Biodiversity Hotspot"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0361-8709","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Francis J.","family":"Nge","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"National Herbarium of New South Wales Botanic Gardens of Sydney  Sydney New South Wales Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thi H.","family":"Chung","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"SP Jain School of Global Management  Lidcombe, Sydney New South Wales Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-018-05419-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0811087106"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.isci.2023.106362"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/nph.19592"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Small\u2010Sample\u2010Size Trait Imputation Using Deep\u2010Learning Techniques","author":"Bai Y.","year":"2025","journal-title":"Integrative Zoology"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2688-8319.12050"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/cobi.12372"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0014-3820.2003.tb00285.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s42003-022-03638-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/nph.18172"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pld.2017.09.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2008.03.011"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2014.0014"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1095-8312.2007.00946.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2148-13-155"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0154431"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2745.13606"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10592-019-01184-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chen T. andC.Guestrin.2016.\u201cXgboost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System Proceedings of the 22nd acm sigkdd International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining.\u201d","DOI":"10.1145\/2939672.2939785"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2019.07.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/nph.13199"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1022627411411"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.07037"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.12532"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.12888"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/03-0110"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.1000620"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2019.2817"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-022-01490-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0900906106"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_32_1","unstructured":"Fix E.1985.\u201cDiscriminatory Analysis: Nonparametric Discrimination Consistency Properties.\u201dUSAF School of Aviation Medicine."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.adz0773"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature05587"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9781119070894.ch5"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/06-1453.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1013203451"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1523-1739.2010.01455.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.13603"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1042\/ETLS20190139"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10994-006-6226-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/botlinnean\/box010"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/d14060493"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0030605318000315"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/evl3.4"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.3001991"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aob\/mcw248"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1818058116"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11104-009-0068-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_50_1","first-page":"141","article-title":"Plants of Western Australian Granite Outcrops","volume":"80","author":"Hopper S. D.","year":"1997","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Society of Western Australia"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ecolsys.35.112202.130201"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1442-9993.2003.01300.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_53_1","unstructured":"Ke G. Q.Meng T.Finley et\u00a0al.2017.\u201cLightgbm: A Highly Efficient Gradient Boosting Decision Tree.\u201dAdvances in Neural Information Processing Systems 30."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.58828\/nuy00461"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2009.04.011"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/cobi.12286"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_57_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.05160"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00606-018-1552-x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_59_1","volume-title":"New Machine Learning Algorithm: Random Forest, International Conference on Information Computing and Applications","author":"Liu Y.","year":"2012"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2005.04.024"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tplants.2014.08.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.70784"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41559-020-01377-w"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_64_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10342-013-0690-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_65_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/aad8cb"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_66_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jbi.14618"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_67_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aob\/mcw093"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_68_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj.8584"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_69_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1442-9993.2002.01181.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_70_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/35002501"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_71_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10531-021-02206-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_72_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1071\/SB24014"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_73_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2019.2546"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_74_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1071\/SB25001"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_75_1","first-page":"531","article-title":"Polyploidy Linked With Species Richness but Not Diversification Rates or Niche Breadth in Australian Pomaderreae (Rhamnaceae)","volume":"3","author":"Nge F. J.","year":"2024","journal-title":"Annals of Botany"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_76_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/botlinnean\/boad051"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_77_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ympev.2021.107085"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_78_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/nph.70330"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_79_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ppp3.10146"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_80_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.11440"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_81_1","unstructured":"Orme D. R.Freckleton G.Thomas et\u00a0al.2013.\u201cThe Caper Package: Comparative Analysis of Phylogenetics and Evolution in R.\u201dR Package Version 3.5.1."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_82_1","volume-title":"The Western Australian Flora: A Descriptive Catalogue","author":"Paczkowska G.","year":"2000"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_83_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/44766"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_84_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2745.2011.01838.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_85_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/bioinformatics\/btg412"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_86_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2699.2010.02413.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_87_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s44358-025-00022-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_88_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/evolut\/qpag011"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_89_1","unstructured":"Prokhorenkova L. G.Gusev A.Vorobev A. V.Dorogush andA.Gulin.2018.\u201cCatBoost: Unbiased Boosting With Categorical Features.\u201dAdvances in Neural Information Processing Systems 31."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_90_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2000.1234"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_91_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pld.2023.01.009"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_92_1","volume-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing","author":"R Core Team","year":"2016"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_93_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2041-210X.2011.00169.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_94_1","volume-title":"The Perceptron, A Perceiving and Recognizing Automaton Project Para","author":"Rosenblatt F.","year":"1957"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_95_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.58828\/nuy00233"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_96_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.58828\/nuy00228"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_97_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.58828\/nuy00242"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_98_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.58828\/nuy00355"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_99_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2025.110994"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_100_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.12333"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_101_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2016.1334"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_102_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1461-0248.2001.00241.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_103_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/nph.16406"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_104_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1071\/BT18056"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_105_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2699.2005.01393.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_106_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1216747110"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_107_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jbi.14375"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_108_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/707207"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_109_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jbi.12343"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_110_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/nph.19151"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_111_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.13153"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_112_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0003886"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_113_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/evo.14517"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_114_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2013.1092"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_115_1","first-page":"259","volume-title":"Nature Conservation: The Role of Remnants of Native Vegetation","author":"Wallace K. J.","year":"1987"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_116_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5962\/p.198471"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_117_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5962\/p.198418"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_118_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1472-4642.2009.00623.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_119_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2023.110424"}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.74349","type":"correction","label":"Correction","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,10]],"date-time":"2026-09-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1788998400000}}],"container-title":["Ecology and Evolution"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/ece3.74233","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/ece3.74233","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/ece3.74233","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,8]],"date-time":"2026-10-08T02:48:52Z","timestamp":1791427732000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/ece3.74233"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]]},"references-count":118,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/ece3.74233"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/ece3.74233","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["2045-7758","2045-7758"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2045-7758","type":"print"},{"value":"2045-7758","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2026-05-03","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-08-16","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-08-27","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e74233"}}