{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,29]],"date-time":"2026-09-29T04:59:50Z","timestamp":1790657990514,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":60,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]],"date-time":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1790553600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]],"date-time":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1790553600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001691","name":"Japan Society for the Promotion of Science","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["23K28275"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["23K28275"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ecology and Evolution"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Anthropogenic land\u2010use change is a major driver of biodiversity loss. Predicting the resulting extinction risk is essential for balancing development and conservation, yet remains challenging due to the lack of frameworks that integrate dynamic human activity with species' spatial distributions. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit model that couples land\u2010use progression with species range\u2010size distributions to estimate species extinctions. This framework captures the stochastic emergence, spatial expansion, and merging of converted areas over time, while accounting for species' spatial range structure. We use it to compare extinction risk across land\u2010use dynamics, geographic gradients, and protected\u2010area implementation scenarios. Using endemic\u2010area relationships (EARs) to evaluate immediate species loss, we found that frequent emergence of new, spatially dispersed land\u2010use patches shifted species loss toward later stages of habitat conversion, producing a sharper increase than in scenarios assuming expansion from a single location. However, because multi\u2010site conversion also accelerates land conversion in time, this conversion pattern may pose a greater real\u2010time risk to biodiversity. We also investigate the role of protected areas, finding that earlier implementation can significantly reduce extinctions, although the effectiveness varies depending on land\u2010use patterns. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating spatiotemporal land\u2010use processes into extinction models and emphasize the urgency of timely conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity loss.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.74433","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,29]],"date-time":"2026-09-29T04:42:48Z","timestamp":1790656968000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Species Extinction Curves Under Emergent Spatiotemporal Land\u2010Use Processes and the Role of Protected Areas"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9594-9264","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nao","family":"Takashina","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Frontier Sciences The University of Tokyo  Kashiwa Chiba Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Buntarou","family":"Kusumoto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Agriculture Kyushu University  Kasuya Fukuoka Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"250","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2006.06.008","article-title":"Properties of Land Mosaics: Implications for Nature Conservation in Agricultural Environments","volume":"133","author":"Bennett A. 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