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Despite their ecological importance, they are among the region's most threatened ecosystems, particularly around Lima, where informal urbanisation and climate change drive their degradation. However, endemic plants inhabiting these ecosystems remain understudied under combined climatic and anthropogenic pressure. Here, ensemble species distribution modelling was integrated with urban growth projections to jointly quantify climatic and anthropogenic pressures on habitat suitability for\n                    <jats:italic>Vasconcellea candicans,<\/jats:italic>\n                    an endemic keystone of Lima's lomas. Occurrence records and environmental predictors were used to calibrate an ensemble of five algorithms under SSP2\u20104.5 and SSP5\u20108.5 scenarios. Suitability outputs were intersected with current urban land cover and Land Change Modeller projections for 2050 and 2070. Random Forest showed the highest performance (AUC\u2009=\u20090.968, TSS\u2009=\u20090.773), with Temperature Annual Range (bio07) and silt content as the main predictors. The ensemble identified 2891\u2009km\n                    <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                    of current high\u2010suitability habitat; future projections ranged from a 4% loss to a 56% gain by 2070, identifying 2020\u20132050 as the most critical management window for conservation intervention before urban consolidation forecloses options. Urban expansion has already affected 36.12\u2009km\n                    <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                    of high\u2010suitability habitat and is projected to reach 126.94\u2009km\n                    <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                    by 2070 (+251%), intensifying along the southern peri\u2010urban front, where protected areas coverage remains limited. Formally designating additional lomas units as fragile ecosystems, expanding protection to unprotected high\u2010suitability patches, and enforcing urban growth boundaries are required to prevent further lomas encroachment.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.74437","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T08:51:09Z","timestamp":1790844669000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Assessing Habitat Suitability and Exposure of the Endemic\n                    <i>Vasconcellea candicans<\/i>\n                    Under Climate Change and Urban Growth in Lima, Peru"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9257-5896","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rebeca M.","family":"Cruz\u2010Zegarra","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Carrera de Ingenier\u00eda Ambiental, Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas  Lima Peru"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0004-5300-0247","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jhade R.","family":"Gutierrez\u2010Gutierrez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Carrera de Ingenier\u00eda Ambiental, Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas  Lima Peru"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5066-2895","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Abner S.","family":"Rivera\u2010Fernandez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto de Investigaci\u00f3n Para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES\u2010CES) Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodr\u00edguez de Mendoza de Amazonas  Chachapoyas Peru"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0868-9511","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alexander","family":"Cotrina\u2010Sanchez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto de Investigaci\u00f3n Para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES\u2010CES) Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodr\u00edguez de Mendoza de Amazonas  Chachapoyas Peru"},{"name":"Faculty of Agricultural, Environmental and Food Sciences Free University of Bozen\/Bolzano  Bozen\/Bolzano Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0774-9068","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Samuel","family":"Astete","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Carrera de Ingenier\u00eda Ambiental, Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas  Lima Peru"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","unstructured":"Abanto J. 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