{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,10]],"date-time":"2026-09-10T11:23:19Z","timestamp":1789039399940,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":58,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,12]],"date-time":"2022-09-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1662940800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":11,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100009053","name":"The Wellcome Trust DBT India Alliance","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["IA\/I(S)\/12\/2\/500629"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["IA\/I(S)\/12\/2\/500629"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100009053","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ecology and Evolution"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Environmental temperature is a key driver of malaria transmission dynamics. Using detailed temperature records from four sites: low elevation (1800), mid elevation (2200\u2009m), and high elevation (2600\u20133200\u2009m) in the western Himalaya, we model how temperature regulates parasite development rate (the inverse of the extrinsic incubation period, EIP) in the wild. Using a Bri\u00e9re parametrization of the EIP, combined with Bayesian parameter inference, we study the thermal limits of transmission for avian (\n                    <jats:italic>Plasmodium relictum<\/jats:italic>\n                    ) and human\n                    <jats:italic>Plasmodium<\/jats:italic>\n                    parasites (\n                    <jats:italic>P. vivax<\/jats:italic>\n                    and\n                    <jats:italic>P. falciparum<\/jats:italic>\n                    ) as well as for two malaria\u2010like avian parasites,\n                    <jats:italic>Haemoproteus<\/jats:italic>\n                    and\n                    <jats:italic>Leucocytozoon<\/jats:italic>\n                    . We demonstrate that temperature conditions can substantially alter the incubation period of parasites at high elevation sites (2600\u20133200\u2009m) leading to restricted parasite development or long transmission windows. The thermal limits (optimal temperature) for\n                    <jats:italic>Plasmodium<\/jats:italic>\n                    parasites were 15.62\u201334.92\u00b0C (30.04\u00b0C) for\n                    <jats:italic>P. falciparum<\/jats:italic>\n                    , 13.51\u201334.08\u00b0C (29.02\u00b0C) for\n                    <jats:italic>P. vivax<\/jats:italic>\n                    , 12.56\u201334.46\u00b0C (29.16\u00b0C) for\n                    <jats:italic>P. relictum<\/jats:italic>\n                    and for two malaria\u2010like parasites, 12.01\u201329.48\u00b0C (25.16\u00b0C) for\n                    <jats:italic>Haemoproteus<\/jats:italic>\n                    spp. and 11.92\u201329.95\u00b0C (25.51\u00b0C) for\n                    <jats:italic>Leucocytozoon<\/jats:italic>\n                    spp. We then compare estimates of EIP based on measures of mean temperature versus hourly temperatures to show that EIP days vary in cold versus warm environments. We found that human\n                    <jats:italic>Plasmodium<\/jats:italic>\n                    parasites experience a limited transmission window at 2600\u2009m. In contrast, for avian\n                    <jats:italic>Plasmodium<\/jats:italic>\n                    transmission was not possible between September and March at 2600\u2009m. In addition, temperature conditions suitable for both\n                    <jats:italic>Haemoproteus<\/jats:italic>\n                    and\n                    <jats:italic>Leucocytozoon<\/jats:italic>\n                    transmission were obtained from June to August and in April, at 2600\u2009m. Finally, we use temperature projections from a suite of climate models to predict that by 2040, high elevation sites (~2600\u2009m) will have a temperature range conducive for malaria transmission, albeit with a limited transmission window. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for fine\u2010scale thermal effects in the expansion of the range of the malaria parasite with global climate change.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.9278","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,12]],"date-time":"2022-09-12T03:20:05Z","timestamp":1662952805000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":13,"title":["Exploring the thermal limits of malaria transmission in the western Himalaya"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"12","author":[{"given":"Farhina","family":"Mozaffer","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"The Institute of Mathematical Sciences, CIT Campus  Chennai India"},{"name":"Homi Bhabha National Institute, Training School Complex  Mumbai India"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5528-4002","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gautam I.","family":"Menon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Institute of Mathematical Sciences, CIT Campus  Chennai India"},{"name":"Homi Bhabha National Institute, Training School Complex  Mumbai India"},{"name":"Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability (3CS) Ashoka University  India"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6762-7014","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Farah","family":"Ishtiaq","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological Sciences Indian Institute of Science  Bangalore India"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","volume-title":"The black flies (Simuliidae) of North America","author":"Adler P. 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