{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,17]],"date-time":"2026-08-17T14:39:01Z","timestamp":1786977541013,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":55,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,6]],"date-time":"2023-01-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1672963200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":5,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ecology and Evolution"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    We present an epidemiological model for the crayfish plague, a disease caused by an invasive oomycete\n                    <jats:italic>Aphanomyces astaci<\/jats:italic>\n                    , and its general susceptible freshwater crayfish host. The pathogen shows high virulence with resulting high mortality rates in freshwater crayfishes native to Europe, Asia, Australia, and South America. The crayfish plague occurrence shows complicated dynamics due to the several types of possible infection routes, which include cannibalism and necrophagy. We explore this complexity by addressing the roles of host cannibalism and the multiple routes of transmission through (1) environment, (2) contact, (3) cannibalism, and (4) scavenging of infected carcasses. We describe a compartment model having six classes of crayfish and a pool of crayfish plague spores from a single nonevolving strain. We show that environmental transmission is the decisive factor in the development of epidemics. Compared with a pathogen\u2010free crayfish population, the presence of the pathogen with a low environmental transmission rate, regardless of the contact transmission rate, decreases the crayfish population size with a low risk of extinction. Conversely, a high transmission rate could drive both the crayfish and pathogen populations to extinction. High contact transmission rate with a low but nonzero environmental transmission rate can have mixed outcomes from extinction to large healthy population, depending on the initial values. Scavenging and cannibalism have a relevant role only when the environmental transmission rate is low, but scavenging can destabilize the system by transmitting the pathogen from a dead to a susceptible host. To the contrary, cannibalism stabilizes the dynamics by decreasing the proportion of infected population. Our model provides a simple tool for further analysis of complex host parasite dynamics and for the general understanding of crayfish disease dynamics in the wild.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.9647","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,6]],"date-time":"2023-01-06T06:40:36Z","timestamp":1672987236000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Crayfish population size under different routes of pathogen transmission"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"13","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2854-7927","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mikko","family":"Koivu\u2010Jolma","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Physics, Faculty of Science University of Helsinki  Helsinki Finland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3749-1096","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Raine","family":"Kortet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences University of Eastern Finland  Joensuu Finland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anssi","family":"Vainikka","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences University of Eastern Finland  Joensuu Finland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Veijo","family":"Kaitala","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Helsinki  Helsinki Finland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3564784"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3543861"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1420\u20109101.2008.01658.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-030-16501-7_3"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.1981.0005"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-2745.1999.00384.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","first-page":"03","article-title":"The signal crayfish is vulnerable to both the As and the PsI\u2010isolates of the crayfish plague","volume":"413","author":"Aydin H.","year":"2013","journal-title":"Knowledge and Management of Aquatic Ecosystems"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0158658"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0706.2012.20353.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/fwb.13576"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0147-5975(84)90061-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2003.2555"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/Tbed.13468"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","first-page":"229","article-title":"More than predator and prey: A review of interactions between fish and crayfish","author":"Dorn N.","year":"1999","journal-title":"Vie et Milieu\/Life & Environment, Observatoire Oc\u00e9anologique \u2013 Laboratoire Arago"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/677038"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.es.06.110175.000511"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/284112"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5735\/086.051.0403"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0044-8486(98)00377-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aquaculture.2014.11.038"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aquaculture.2021.736966"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1163\/15685403-00003653"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0031182012000777"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0030\u20101299.2006.14301.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fevo.2021.648495"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_9_27_1","first-page":"235","article-title":"Crayfish plague dilemma: How to be a courteous killer?","volume":"19","author":"Jussila J.","year":"2014","journal-title":"Boreal Environment Research"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5869\/fc.2017.v23-1.23"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9783110438666-013"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_30_1","volume-title":"Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals","author":"Keeling M. J.","year":"2002"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/0012-9658(2001)082[2294:PRIAAI]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwp116"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0031182018000227"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jip.2013.10.009"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.11694\/pamj.supp.2015.22.1.6190"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598\u2010021\u201088704\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/S0101\u201081752008000400007"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/dao052159"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-009-1001-0_9"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598\u2010020\u201062736\u2010y"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4319\/lo.1991.36.5.0976"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.es.12.110181.001301"},{"issue":"2","key":"e_1_2_9_43_1","first-page":"197","article-title":"Ecological roles of crayfish in freshwater and terrestrial habitats","volume":"9","author":"Reynolds J.","year":"2013","journal-title":"Freshwater Crayfish"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2006.0449"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4319\/lo.2000.45.5.1030"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2664.12218"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vetmic.2012.05.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jfd.12472"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1899\/12-169.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0031182020000165"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/aqc.2924"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1399-3054.1966.tb07104.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1399-3054.1969.tb07371.x"},{"issue":"5","key":"e_1_2_9_54_1","first-page":"182","article-title":"Persistent infection by crayfish plague Aphanomyces astaci on a noble crayfish population \u2013 A case report","volume":"31","author":"Viljamaa\u2010Dirks S.","year":"2011","journal-title":"Bulletin of the European Association of Fish Pathologists"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1163\/9789004207615_004"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/aqc.3344"}],"container-title":["Ecology and Evolution"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/ece3.9647","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/ece3.9647","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/ece3.9647","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,19]],"date-time":"2023-08-19T12:28:14Z","timestamp":1692448094000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/ece3.9647"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,1]]},"references-count":55,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/ece3.9647"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/ece3.9647","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["2045-7758","2045-7758"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2045-7758","type":"print"},{"value":"2045-7758","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,1]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2022-02-22","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2022-12-02","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2023-01-06","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e9647"}}