{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,26]],"date-time":"2026-06-26T14:13:08Z","timestamp":1782483188053,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,10,19]],"date-time":"2016-10-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1476835200000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":18,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,10,19]],"date-time":"2016-10-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1476835200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":18,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008287","name":"Science and Technology Directorate","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008287","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000180","name":"U.S. Department of Homeland Security","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000180","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000061","name":"Fogarty International Center","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000061","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100005363","name":"Universidad de Buenos Aires","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UBACYT 20020100100734"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UBACYT 20020100100734"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100005363","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100005363","name":"Universidad de Buenos Aires","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UBACYT 20020110100205"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UBACYT 20020110100205"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100005363","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100005363","name":"Universidad de Buenos Aires","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UBACYT 20020130100361BA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UBACYT 20020130100361BA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100005363","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100005363","name":"Universidad de Buenos Aires","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01\u2010AI54954"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01\u2010AI54954"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100005363","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100005363","name":"Universidad de Buenos Aires","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01\u2010AI091980"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01\u2010AI091980"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100005363","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100005363","name":"Universidad de Buenos Aires","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["P01\u2010AI098670"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["P01\u2010AI098670"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100005363","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["RTG\/DMS\u20141246991"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["RTG\/DMS\u20141246991"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Ecosphere"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>The success of control programs for mosquito\u2010borne diseases can be enhanced by crucial information provided by models of the mosquito populations. Models, however, can differ in their structure, complexity, and biological assumptions, and these differences impact their predictions. Unfortunately, it is typically difficult to determine why two complex models make different predictions because we lack structured side\u2010by\u2010side comparisons of models using comparable parameterization. Here, we present a detailed comparison of two complex, spatially explicit, stochastic models of the population dynamics of <jats:italic>Aedes aegypti<\/jats:italic>, the main vector of dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Both models describe the mosquito's biological and ecological characteristics, but differ in complexity and specific assumptions. We compare the predictions of these models in two selected climatic settings: a tropical and weakly seasonal climate in Iquitos, Peru, and a temperate and strongly seasonal climate in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Both models were calibrated to operate at identical average densities in unperturbed conditions in both settings, by adjusting parameters regulating densities in each model (number of larval development sites and amount of nutritional resources). We show that the models differ in their sensitivity to environmental conditions (temperature and rainfall) and trace differences to specific model assumptions. Temporal dynamics of the <jats:italic>Ae.\u00a0aegypti<\/jats:italic> populations predicted by the two models differ more markedly under strongly seasonal Buenos Aires conditions. We use both models to simulate killing of larvae and\/or adults with insecticides in selected areas. We show that predictions of population recovery by the models differ substantially, an effect likely related to model assumptions regarding larval development and (direct or delayed) density dependence. Our methodical comparison provides important guidance for model improvement by identifying key areas of <jats:italic>Ae.\u00a0aegypti<\/jats:italic> ecology that substantially affect model predictions, and revealing the impact of model assumptions on population dynamics predictions in unperturbed and perturbed conditions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ecs2.1515","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,10,19]],"date-time":"2016-10-19T15:43:13Z","timestamp":1476891793000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":19,"title":["Comparison of two detailed models of <i>Aedes aegypti<\/i> population dynamics"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"7","author":[{"given":"Mathieu","family":"Legros","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Entomology North Carolina State University  Raleigh North Carolina 27695 USA"},{"name":"ETH Z\u00fcrich Institut f\u00fcr Integrative Biologie Universit\u00e4tstrasse 16  8092 Z\u00fcrich Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marcelo","family":"Otero","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de F\u00edsica Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales Universidad de Buenos Aires and IFIBA\u2010CONICET  Pabell\u00f3n I, Ciudad Universitaria 1428 Buenos Aires Argentina"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Victoria","family":"Romeo Aznar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de F\u00edsica Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales Universidad de Buenos Aires and IFIBA\u2010CONICET  Pabell\u00f3n I, Ciudad Universitaria 1428 Buenos Aires Argentina"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hernan","family":"Solari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de F\u00edsica Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales Universidad de Buenos Aires and IFIBA\u2010CONICET  Pabell\u00f3n I, Ciudad Universitaria 1428 Buenos Aires Argentina"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fred","family":"Gould","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Entomology North Carolina State University  Raleigh North Carolina 27695 USA"},{"name":"Fogarty International Center National Institutes of Health  Bethesda Maryland 20892 USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alun L.","family":"Lloyd","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fogarty International Center National Institutes of Health  Bethesda Maryland 20892 USA"},{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Biomathematics Graduate Program North Carolina State University  Raleigh North Carolina 27695 USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,10,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003655"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","first-page":"11","article-title":"Food as a limiting factor for Aedes aegypti in water\u2010storage containers","volume":"29","author":"Arrivillaga J.","year":"2004","journal-title":"Journal of Vector Ecology"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0007485300053499"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12060"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/286904"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(14)61060-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.156.3781.1499"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/4355"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_1","first-page":"619","article-title":"Effectiveness of periodomestic space spraying with insecticide on dengue transmission; systematic review","volume":"15","author":"Ekpereonne E.","year":"2010","journal-title":"Tropical Medicine and International Health"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2011.10-0516"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1090\/S0002-9947-1940-0002697-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/30.6.1003"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_14_1","first-page":"1019","article-title":"Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti: simulation results and validation","volume":"30","author":"Focks D. A.","year":"1993","journal-title":"Journal of Medical Entomology"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_15_1","first-page":"355","article-title":"Systems analysis of the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti","volume":"25","author":"Gilpin M. E.","year":"1979","journal-title":"Fortschritte der Zoologie"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/CMR.11.3.480"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0102.952004"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1506223"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_19_1","volume-title":"Mosquitoes: their bionomics and relation to disease","author":"Horsfall W. R.","year":"1955"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0022701"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000508"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nrmicro2968"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1603\/0022-2585-41.6.1123"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(15)61273-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_25_1","first-page":"148","article-title":"Effects of female size on fecundity and survivorship of Aedes aegypti fed only human blood versus human blood plus sugar","volume":"14","author":"Naksathit A. T.","year":"1998","journal-title":"Journal of the American Mosquito Control Association"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11538-008-9300-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11538-006-9067-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_28_1","volume-title":"Collected papers","author":"Peirce C. S.","year":"1931"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2014.10.016"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2012.12.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/27.5.892"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(12)61428-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-5193(77)90265-X"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nrg1870"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_35_1","first-page":"211","article-title":"Studies on the life budget of Aedes aegypti in Wat Samphaya, Bangkok Thailand","volume":"46","author":"Southwood T. R. E.","year":"1972","journal-title":"Bulletin of the World Health Organization"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1411037"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.12-0378"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(09)70254-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_39_1","volume-title":"Dengue guidelines for diagnosis, treatment, prevention and control","author":"WHO","year":"2009"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_40_1","series-title":"Fact Sheet No. 117","volume-title":"Dengue and severe dengue","author":"WHO","year":"2012"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000830"}],"container-title":["Ecosphere"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fecs2.1515","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fecs2.1515","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/ecs2.1515","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/ecs2.1515","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/chorus\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fecs2.1515","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"am","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/ecs2.1515","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/ecs2.1515","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,16]],"date-time":"2023-09-16T23:56:00Z","timestamp":1694908560000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/ecs2.1515"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2016,10]]},"references-count":40,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,10]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/ecs2.1515"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/ecs2.1515","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["2150-8925","2150-8925"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2150-8925","type":"print"},{"value":"2150-8925","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2016,10]]},"article-number":"e01515"}}