{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,24]],"date-time":"2026-01-24T16:49:06Z","timestamp":1769273346297,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,28]],"date-time":"2024-11-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1732752000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ecology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Understanding how demographic parameters change with density is essential for predicting the resilience of small populations. We use long\u2010term, individual\u2010based life history data from an isolated population of the Critically Endangered Northern Muriqui (<jats:italic>Brachyteles hypoxanthus<\/jats:italic>) inhabiting a 1000\u2010ha protected forest to evaluate density\u2010dependent demographic rates before and after an abrupt population decline. We found no effect of density on fertility or birth sex ratio, but mortality rates increased linearly with log density over the 33\u2009years of population growth (1983\u20132015) and the subsequent 7\u2009years of population decline (2016\u20132022). We used an age\u2010 and sex\u2010structured logistic growth model to project population sizes to 2060. Under the 1983\u20132015 demographic profile, the projected size was 500 individuals, but this dropped to 200 when including the abrupt change. Although the abrupt decline coincided with the end of a 2\u2010year drought and a yellow fever outbreak, we found no statistical effects of climate or disease on the continued population decline after 2016. However, the lower projected carrying capacity for muriquis is consistent with reduced forest productivity and increased predator pressures. These findings demonstrate the value of long\u2010term monitoring for identifying demographic changes that affect the sustainability of wildlife populations in small protected areas.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ecy.4487","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,29]],"date-time":"2024-11-29T02:33:16Z","timestamp":1732847596000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Abrupt demographic change affects projected population size: Implications for an endangered species in a protected area"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"106","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2520-9110","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Karen B.","family":"Strier","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Anthropology University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison  Madison Wisconsin USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9375-9523","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anthony R.","family":"Ives","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison  Madison Wisconsin USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41559-022-01747-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v067.i01"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-023-01776-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ajp.20415"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ajp.23089"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","first-page":"53","article-title":"Structure and Floristic Composition of One of the Last Forest Fragments Containing the Critically Endangered Northern Muriqui (Brachyteles hypoxanthus, Primates)","volume":"17","author":"Boubli J.","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ecotropica"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10531-008-9427-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.13754"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.293.5530.657"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43247-021-00270-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-023-33345-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.8943"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tfp.2021.100180"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abq5099"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0141333"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","unstructured":"Melo F. R. J. P.Boubli R. A.Mittermeier L.Jerusalinsky F. P.Tabacow D. S.Ferraz andM.Talebi.2021.\u201cBrachyteles hypoxanthus(Amended Version of 2019 Assessment).\u201dThe IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2021: e.T2994A191693399."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/657443"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ecy.3128"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ecs2.1480"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ajp.23425"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2745.13849"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/d14090751"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010133"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/btp.13253"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10329-021-00953-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2041-210X.2010.00023.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0044407"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_29_1","unstructured":"Strier K. 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